Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2018 CH86 Wrote:> More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or (04-14-2018, 10:13 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Its obvious that Boomer Ideologues Like JohnX, Pbrower, and Eric Guest Wrote:> So let me get this straight. It is acceptable for Assad to commit RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 04-14-2018 (04-14-2018, 11:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:CH86 Wrote:> More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or 1. When someone commits crimes against humanity he offends the whole of humanity. India had no connection to Rwanda when it arrested and extradited Frouald Karamira when it found him in Mumbai, This man, one of the loudest proponents of mass murder in the Rwandan genocide, advocated it over state-controlled Radio of a Thousand Hills. The Indian government knew what would happen to him; he would be executed. I am anti-communist because of the Commie body count in practically every Red regime. This is not globalism. I find the Cambodian horror under Pol Pot an affront to mu values in the same sense that the Holocaust is. Uf you think this simply 'national pride', then I recognize that Americans participated in horrors against American First Peoples and in the Atlantic slave trade. There is no excuse. I probably am related to Holocaust perpetrators because of much of my ancestry being German. I denounce those relatives should I find them (and I have no desire to seek them). If it takes some 'globalist tyranny' to suppress war crimes, then let it happen! 2. I can't speak for my other two Boomers, but at this point I see nothing wrong with Bashir Assad that a well-tied rope and a seven-foot drop would not solve at this stage. I can now put him in the same category as Pol Pot, Saddam Hussein, Haile Mengistu, Jean Kabanda, Efrain Rios-Montt, Slobodan Milosevic, and Idi Amin -- damnable for their crimes. Jean Kabanda, President of Rwanda when the Rwanda genocide broke out, is roughly my age. These perpetrators of genocide can all roast in Hell if they have yet to go there. 3. Do you remember the First Gulf War? The Soviet Union had its legitimate concerns about some of its technicians trapped in Iraq. As I recall some of the people who had long-standing disdain for Soviet foreign policy such as Senator Bob Dole made clear that those technicians would be released --- or else. 'Or else' had three letters attached -- K, G, and B -- under some circumstances in which the Soviet Union got a legitimate claim on him for crimes against the people of the Soviet Union. Perhaps the Soviet Union might be asked to participate in trials of key figures of the gangster regime, such as gassing the Kurds. Yes, it is easy to get away with genocide if one still has an army, navy, and air force that protects one from international judgment. Take that away and one might be helpless. Until his regime collapses, Bashir Assad is safe. But after that? The best that he could hope for is the Hague Tribunals, where I expect that he would meet much the same fate as Slobodan Milosevich and Jean Kabanda. The Hague Tribunal has no death penalty available. Alternatives include a lynching in the wake of a revolution or some new government putting him on trial for his life. 4. Basic morality has no generational component. Murder, rape, theft, torture, and perjury have never been in style. There have been people who thought that they could get away with these because they are powerful enough to avoid judgment or clever enough to hide their crimes that they are never detected for such, but many who did so found out how wrong they were. If you don't want to do the time, then don't do the crime. 5. Advice to Cynic Hero: Get help! Mental illness is no more shameful than such organic diseases as diabetes and cancer. As one who needed help for dealing with circumstances that had me showing myself a suicide risk, I can assure you that the mental health profession can treat you with great kindness. I found that I had problems for which I was blameless, and that I could start over even at age 60. You can do so, too. It will take effort on your part, but I can assure you that it will be well worth the effort. The potential of great shame comes from doing horrible things to yourself or others under distress that you might still be able to deal with. If you are simply an Internet troll -- then find another life. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-14-2018 John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in Syria are correct. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2018 (04-14-2018, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli The BBC correspondent in Beirut has been reporting for several hours that loud explosions occurred near Aleppo, but the reports haven't been confirmed. The ZeroHedge writer may be running ahead of his skis, as the saying goes. We probably won't know for sure until Sunday. 15-Apr-18 World View -- Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2018 *** 15-Apr-18 World View -- Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** American, British, French attack on Syria signals sharp change in Western policy **** Audience for Saturday's speech by Hezbollah leader Nasrallah (Reuters) As we reported on Friday evening, the joint attack on Syrian targets by American, British and French forces ended as quickly as it started. The attack was in retaliation for the attack on April 7 by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on civilians in Douma, using chemical weapons. The attack occurred at 4 am Syrian time, and was over in minutes. 105 missiles were launched, striking three Syrian chemical weapons targets. The military said that all missiles reached their target, and denied Syrian claims that most (or any) were shot down. The attack was "one and done," according to Secretary of Defense James Mattis. However, Mattis and other US officials have stated clearly that another attack will follow if al-Assad uses chemical weapons again. So America's message to Bashar al-Assad is pretty clear: "You may use barrel bombs, missiles, gunfire, and any other conventional weapons on neighborhoods, markets, schools and hospitals, and you may massacre and kill as many women and children as you want, with no retribution. Just don't use chemical weapons." The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were carefully chosen so as to avoid civilian casualties, particularly Russian casualties. The Russian military did not respond, and it was clear that both the US and Russian side did everything possible to avoid confronting each other. However, the language used by Russia on Saturday was extremely bitter and angry. And according to Pentagon spokesman Dana White, <QUOTE>"The Russian disinformation campaign has already begun. There has been a 2000 per cent increase in Russian trolls in the last 24 hours."<END QUOTE> As someone who is attacked constantly by Russian trolls, this is disheartening news. At Saturday's UN Security Council meeting by Russia's ambassador Vasily Nebenzya expressed deep anger: <QUOTE>"The US and its allies continue to demonstrate blatant disregard for international law. You are constantly tempted by neocolonialism. You have nothing but disdain for the UN charter, and the Security Council. As a pretext for aggression, you mention the alleged use of chemical weapons in Douma, but after an investigation by Russian experts, it was proven unequivocally that no such attacks took place."<END QUOTE> The invocation of international law by Russia is really laughable, as Russia has done everything from invading and annexing Crimea to support the worst genocidal monster so far this century, Bashar al-Assad, without getting approval for anything from the UN Security Council, yet Russian officials become apoplectic when the US or the West does anything to avoid their UNSC veto. As I've been writing starting in 2011, Russia's president Vladimir Putin adopted a policy of using the UN Security Council to take control of US, Nato and Western foreign policy. Russia took any military action it pleased without getting UNSC approval, but demanded that any other country got UNSC approval for everything. By using its UNSC veto, Russia could effectively control American foreign policy. This Russian policy has been extremely successful for years, crippling not only Western foreign policy, but the UN Security Council itself. I believe that success reached its peak with the March 4 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using a Russia-developed nerve agent Novichok. The British public was incensed that Russia put ordinary British citizens at risk by using Novichok in public, where anyone could be affected, but Russia made matters worse when Russia's president Vladimir Putin smirked and gave a sarcastic answer when a BBC reporter asked about it. This was following by a series of moronic claims by Russia, including accusing Britain of poisoning the Skripals in order to embarrass Russia. Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson gave a furious response to these claims: "There is something in the kind of smug, sarcastic response that we’ve heard that indicates their fundamental guilt. They want to simultaneously deny it, yet at the same time to glory in it." The Skripal poisoning was an international tipping point, uniting Britain and other nations to no longer tolerate Russia's strategy to use the UNSC to cripple Western foreign policy. That's why Russian ambassador Vasily Nebenzya and other Russian officials are so bitterly angry. The policy they had successfully used for years is now collapsing in front of them. Further remarks by the Russians have the appearance of hysterical desperation. There have been horrifying videos of al-Assad's April 7 chemical attack on Douma, but Nebenzya and other Russian officials are claiming that the chemical attack didn't even occur. They claim that the British government paid the "White Helmet" humanitarian workers in Douma to stage the horrifying videos as a Hollywood production. One gets the impression that the Russians as a nation are becoming completely delusional. Meanwhile, Syrians in Damascus were dancing in the streets on Saturday, because the military strikes were not as bad as feared. Guardian (Australia) and The Hill Related Articles:
**** **** Britain publishes its legal justification for military action **** I've always believed that there was plenty of legal justification for American and Western military intervention in Syria. After al-Assad began targeting peaceful protesters in 2011, and particularly after he massacred thousands of innocent women and children in a Palestinian refugee camp in Latakia in August 2011, millions of Syrian citizens began fleeing into neighboring countries, including over a million reaching Europe. Any country has a responsibility to control its own population, but al-Assad had essentially weaponized refugees. If al-Assad can't control its own population, but instead uses them as a weapon, then any target is justified in intervening in the country. In addition, al-Assad's attack on the Palestinian camp caused tens of thousands of Sunni jihadists to travel from around the world to fight al-Assad. These foreign jihadists formed the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), which has launched terror attacks on other countries. Once again, if al-Assad can't control ISIS, then any country threatened by ISIS is justified in intervening. In fact, the US military intervention in Syria has succeeded in recapturing all territory formerly occupied by ISIS, although ISIS is far from completely defeated. So the West certainly has plenty of justifications for military intervention in Syria, but al-Assad's use of chemical weapons doubles down on those justifications. But in the end, the justification for this kind of military action has less to do with international law, and more to do with domestic politics. For that reason, the British government has published a humanitarian justification policy paper for Saturday's military action. Here's a brief summary: The Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons is a war crime and a crime against humanity. Under international law, the UK may use force for humanitarian intervention, provided that three conditions are met:
The policy paper goes on to explain why all three conditions have been met. BBC and UK Government **** **** Iran, Hezbollah and Syria threaten retaliation against Israel **** Although the debate over Saturday's airstrikes has dominated news coverage since the April 7 chemical attack, there's a completely different parallel issue in play, which may be even more dangerous. On Monday last week, Israel attacked Syria's T4 airbase (Tayfur airport), because the airbase is considered a threat to Israel. Apparently seven Iranians were killed in the attack. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah says that the attack put Israel into direct combat with Iran: <QUOTE>"You made a historic mistake and a great folly which brings you into direct confrontation with Iran. This is the first time in 7 years that the Israelis have deliberately killed Iranian revolutionary guards. Attacking T-4 airport is a pivotal incident in the history of the region that can’t be ignored. Iran is not a weak or a cowardly state, and you know that well. The Israeli have false calculation. You will have to face the Islamic Republic of Iran. All those thousands of terrorists in Syria do not concern the Israeli while they have every kind of weapons, however, they are afraid of just few revolutionary guards there."<END QUOTE> According to the BBC, Syria, Iran and Russia are all expressing quiet relief that Saturday's missile attack was considerably more limited than was expected. But it did evoke a sense of greater defiance, with the three entities calling themselves the "Axis of Resistance," and referring to Western powers as "paper tigers," a phrase used by China's Mao Zedong in the 1960s to describe the United States. It's generally believed that Iran must retaliate for Israel's airstrike, killing several Iranian revolutionary guards. This could be a far more dangerous confrontation than even Saturday's missile strikes. Long time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. Events appear to be moving very quickly now. Al Manar (Hezbollah) and Reuters and Al-Jazeera Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran, France, Britain, Syria, Damascus, Homs, Vasily Nebenzya, James Mattis, Nikki Haley, Dana White, Vladimir Putin, Boris Johnson, Sergei Skripal, Yulia Skripal, Novichok, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-14-2018 Quote:The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were Did you mean, "not to confront each other"? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-14-2018 (04-14-2018, 10:44 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:Quote:The targets and time of day of Saturday morning's attack were Thanks for the correction. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-15-2018 (04-14-2018, 07:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-14-2018, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > John, I'm curious if the ZeroHedge reports of additional Israeli At this point it seems clear that a big Hezbollah/Iran weapon warehouse cooked off, but it's still not clear whether it was initiated by an air attack or something else. If it was an air attack by Israel, the lack of news coverage is likely exactly what they want. 16-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released - John J. Xenakis - 04-15-2018 *** 16-Apr-18 World View -- Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released from jail This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Israel's top court orders 207 African migrants to be released from jail **** African migrants leaving prison on Sunday, after being freed by Israel's Supreme Court (Times of Israel) Israel's Interior Ministry on Sunday released 207 African migrants from Saharonim prison in southern Israel, by order of Israel's Supreme Count. The migrants were mostly from Eritrea and Sudan. According to the government, they were "infiltrators," or "illegal immigrants." Israel's government had wanted to deport them to another country, but were unable to reach any agreement with a country. It was not announced what countries the government was negotiating with, but it's believed they were Rwanda and Uganda. The court had given the government until Sunday to reach agreement with another country, or else release the migrants from prison, and that's what happened. Earlier this month, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a major new policy for dealing with 16,250 of the migrants. Under a deal with the UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR), 16,250 African migrants under threat of being either jailed or deported to another African country, would instead be absorbed and resettled into a Western country. The deal also specifies that another 16,250 similarly threated migrants would be permitted to remain in Israel as "temporary residents." Netanyahu originally said that the agreement was a "landmark achievement," allowing 16,250 migrants to be taken to "developed countries like Canada, or Germany and Italy." Canada announced that it would accept some migrants under the deal, but Germany and Italy announced that they were not part of the deal and hadn't been consulted. The deal was also opposed by many politicians in Israel, because it granted legal status to 16,250 "infiltrators." Within hours, Netanyahu was forced to suspend the deal entirely. **** **** Uganda first agrees to accept Israel's African migrants, then backs down **** For months there have been unconfirmed reports that Benjamin Netanyahu was negotiating with Rwanda and Uganda to accept Israel's African migrants, mostly from Eritrea and Sudan, in return for some unspecified payment. Netanyahu recently confirmed that negotiations with Rwanda had been going on for two years. However, under enormous pressure from pro-migrant activists both inside and outside Israel, Rwanda was finally forced to withdraw from the agreement. Until Friday, Uganda consistently denied that a deportation deal with Israel exists, despite reports that it was accepting migrants deported from Israel. On Friday, Musa Ecweru, Uganda's state minister of disaster preparedness and refugees, indicated that Uganda was ready to accept 500 migrants from Israel. According to Ecweru: <QUOTE>"The State of Israel working with other refugees’ managing organizations has requested Uganda to allow about 500 Eritreans and Sudanese refugees to relocate to Uganda. The Government and Ministry are positively considering the request. We already have millions of refugees in Uganda from Somalia, Ethiopia so the few from Israel won’t be a problem to Uganda as a third party country. We are slow but very sure on the issue of refugees that we host. To my knowledge, no refugees from Israel have come in yet. The ones coming are going to the settlement."<END QUOTE> However, on Sunday, Netanyahu's special emissary to Uganda returned home after 11 days of negotiations with Uganda, apparently without a deal on migrants. Independent (Uganda) and Times of Israel Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Eritrea, Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Musa Ecweru, Canada, Germany, Italy Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-Apr-18 World View -- As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical w - John J. Xenakis - 04-16-2018 *** 17-Apr-18 World View -- As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Russia ties itself in knots diplomatically over Syria chemical attack **** Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov (Tass) On Friday, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said that he had "irrefutable evidence" that the April 7 chemical attack Syria's Damascus suburb Douma had been staged: <QUOTE>"We have the irrefutable data that this [chemical attack] was staged. And special services of a country, which is now seeking to be in the first ranks of the Russophobic campaign, were involved in this staged event."<END QUOTE> Lavrov did not name the country, but other Russian officials have said that Lavrov was referring to the UK, and said that the British government has paid a group of volunteer rescue workers, known as the White Helmets, "to stage a provocation with an alleged use of chemical weapons." In an interview of Lavrov by BBC's HardTalk, Steven Sachur repeatedly asked what this "irrefutable data" was, and Lavrov never answered the question, but kept personally attacking Sachur. Not surprisingly, no such irrefutable data exists. According to a statement by the British government: <QUOTE>"Russia has argued that the attack on Douma was somehow staged, or faked. They have even suggested that the UK was behind the attack. That is ludicrous. The attack on Douma was not reported by just a sole source in opposition to the Regime. There are multiple eye witness accounts, substantial video footage, accounts from first responders and medical evidence."<END QUOTE> Russia is tied up in knots about this subject because lie after lie have caught up with one another. After Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people in 2013, Lavrov first denied that any Sarin attack had taken place, then denied that al-Assad had any stockpiles of Sarin gas, and then committed to US Secretary of State John Kerry that all stockpiles of chemical weapons would be removed. Under international pressure, Lavrov committed that Russia would guarantee that all chemical weapons would be removed. So you can see the problem. Russia has to deny that any attack took place on April 7, because Russia has guaranteed that al-Assad has no stockpiles of chemical weapons. That's why Russia is diplomatically tied up in knots. Lavrov made an additional interesting statement during the interview. He was asked whether relations between Russia and the West are worse than during the cold war: <QUOTE>"Well I think it's worse because during the cold war there were channels of communication, and there was no obsession with Russophobia, which looks like genocide by sanctions."<END QUOTE> His accusation of "genocide by sanctions" is startling, and the "Russophobia" remark is common to both of Lavrov's comments quoted above, and reflects a pervasive paranoia in Russia's leadership. I've previously quoted a high-level Russian official claiming that the West has been attacking Russia for 200 years. All this talk about staging the chemical attack as a kind of Hollywood horror film and blaming it on the UK, combined with paranoia, seems highly delusional and worrying. Russia's leadership is in a very dangerous state right now, and could make a miscalculation and mistake. UK Government and Tass (13-Apr) and NBC News (13-Apr) and Russia Today (13-Apr) and BBC HardTalk **** **** Syria blocks OPCW inspectors from visiting site of chemical attack **** Syria has been for several days blocking the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) from inspecting the Douma site. The OPCW held an emergency meeting in Hague on Monday, and demanded immediate unfettered access to the site of the attack. Russians have already been inspecting the site since the day after the April 7 chemical attack. We know that because the Russians have said that these "experts" had visited and determined that there was no evidence of a chemical attack. So these "experts" have already had ten days to clean up as much evidence as they can. There were also reports by a correspondent on al-Jazeera that local Syrians in Douma are being threatened by Syrian security forces with violence to themselves and their families if they give the OPCW inspectors any evidence of the chemical attack. Late on Monday, Syria said that they could go on Wednesday, April 18. Deutsche Welle and Tass (9-Apr) and Al-Jazeera **** **** As Syria's al-Assad attacks Idlib, he may consider chemical weapons essential **** The military strategy used by Bashar al-Assad in Douma and Ghouta, and earlier in Aleppo, depends heavily on repeated use of chemical weapons, particularly chlorine attacks. His objective in these cities is genocide and ethnic cleansing -- to kill as many Sunnis as possible, since he says that all Sunnis in these cities are terrorists, including women and children. The problem that al-Assad has faced is that people hide in basements, and so clearing out the entire population of Sunnis requires destroying all buildings as much as possible, then house to house searches to find all the Sunnis still hiding from the army. That process will work, but it can take many months. Use of chlorine gas speeds things up considerably. Chlorine is heavier than air, and the chlorine gas seeps into the basement of every home, forcing the women and children out into the open, where al-Assad can mop them up and kill them all simultaneously. This could save considerable time, and undoubtedly has already. Idlib province presents special problems for al-Assad. Whereas Ghouta and Aleppo each had just a few hundred thousand residents, Idlib has over two million. In fact, many of the people who fled the violence in Aleppo and Ghouta ended up fleeing to Idlib. So for al-Assad, Idlib contains over two million terrorists. To exterminate all those residents of Aleppo with just conventional weapons will take al-Assad a long time, possibly years. Al-Assad would like to mop up the entire population a lot more quickly than that. There have been news reports that al-Assad has been smiling and happy since Saturday's coalition airstrikes, because even though a few buildings were demolished, the airstrikes actually gave al-Assad the green light he needs to proceed with ethnic cleansing and genocide in Idlib:
So Bashar al-Assad has plenty of reason to be smiling and happy now. He will undoubtedly use chlorine gas to force women and children out into the open where his missiles can kill masses of them simultaneously. Basically, there is nothing stopping him from committing any war crimes or ethnic cleansing or genocide in Idlib. Bashar al-Assad is the worst genocidal monster so far this century, and Vladimir Putin and Ayatollah Khamenei are war criminals for participating in his genocide. France Diplomatie and Reuters and AFP and Syria Deeply (29-Mar) Related Articles:
**** **** Syria TV says that its Shayrat airbase has been attacked by missiles **** Syria's state television says that its airbase at Shayrat in Homs province and Dumair military airport near Damascus have been attacked by missiles. Syria says that all missiles were shot down without reaching their targets. Shayrat air base was the target of the US missile strikes launched by the US a year ago in response to Sarin gas attacks by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on April 4, 2017. However, in this case, the US says that there was no U.S. military activity in the area at that time. This situation is similar to the one that occurred on Monday of last week, when Syria's T4 airbase was attacked by missiles, but not by American missiles. It turned out that the missile attack came from Israel. Reuters and Middle East Eye Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Sergei Lavrov, Douma, White Helmets, Britain, Steven Sachur, John Kerry, Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, OPCW, Idlib, Aleppo, Ghouta, chlorine, Shayrat airbase, Dumair military airport Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-17-2018 Seems like Israel or whoever it is should be buying cruise missiles from the US which can actually hit their targets. 18-Apr-18 World View -- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens - John J. Xenakis - 04-17-2018 *** 18-Apr-18 World View -- Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Leader of Armenia's 'non-violent velvet revolution' threatens to paralyze the country **** Nikol Pashinyan, late Tuesday evening, calling for his supporters on Wednesday to block buildings and roads. The violence gave him a black eye, and there is some blood on his bandaged right hand. (lragir.am) Nikol Pashinyan, a member of Armenia's parliament from the opposition Yelk party, is calling for a "non-violent velvet revolution," alluding to the peaceful 1989 uprising that ousted the Communist regime in the former Czechoslovakia. Pashinyan's objective is to prevent Serzh Sargsyan, who has served ten years as Armenia's president, from continuing in power as Armenia's prime minister under a new constitution. Protesters are particularly incensed that Sargsyan had promised not to run for prime minister after the constitution was changed, but now is running anyway. With protesters chanting "Serzh the liar," Pashinyan has been calling for widespread strikes, and blockades of streets and government buildings in Armenia's capital city Yerevan, with the objective of preventing the parliament from voting to make Sargsyan the prime minister. There were widespread protests across several cities, with students blocking roads and buildings. At least 46 people were injured in the protests, including six police officers. More than 60 people were arrested. Pashinyan himself was taken to a hospital with cuts and an eye injury, but he returned to speak to the crowd and urge further protests. On Tuesday, the parliament voted overwhelmingly, 76 to 17 with no abstentions, to elect former president Sargsyan as the prime minister under the new constitution. Late on Tuesday, Pashinyan addressed the crowd and called for widespread protests to block government agencies, streets and highways. <QUOTE>"Tomorrow at 10 am, I will be waiting for you on France Square where our actions will start and will be concluded on Republic Square. ... On the upcoming days we will form velvet revolution committees which will lead this movement till victory. Revolutionary committees will be created in all areas and regions of the country. Very soon all the government agencies of Armenia, including the police will have to perform the orders of the revolutionary committees, not of Serzh Sargsyan. Tomorrow morning we must paralyze entire Armenia, from the 9th district to 3rd, 4th villages. Serzh Sargsyan and his servants must not have room to move in Yerevan, they must move along the crossing points that we will decide. Tomorrow we set up crossing points in Yerevan streets which are intended for the Republicans and their riffraff only."<END QUOTE> RFE/RL and Lragir (Armenia) and News (Armenia) and NPR **** **** Brief generational history of Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan **** Armenia had two generational crisis wars, over 70 years apart, during the 20th century. The first occurred during World War I between 1915-17, when over a million Armenians were massacred, deported from their homeland in Anatolia (Turkey)to present-day Syria. Armenia considers the killings genocide, a charge that Turkey denies. The second generational crisis war was the conflict between 1989-94 with Azerbaijan over the enclave Nagorno-Karabakh. Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian-occupied region within Azerbaijan, and the source of continuing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Today, Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of the previous generational crisis war. Student protests are common in Awakening eras (as in America and Europe in the 1960s), because this is the coming of age of the first generation growing up after the crisis war. So the student protests occurring this week in Armenia are typical of this era. Although the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was an external war, more research is needed on the question of the extent to which it was also an ethnic conflict between the ethnic Armenians and the ethnic Turkic population of Azerbaijan. During this week's protests, with the objective of preventing former president Serzh Sargsyan from becoming prime minister, opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan said the following: <QUOTE>"Serzh Sargsyan is trying to change the essence of our country. He’s transforming it into western Azerbaijan. We aren’t citizens of Azerbaijan. We are citizens of Armenia. We aren’t citizens of North Korea or of Kazakhstan."<END QUOTE> Media sources do not explain what Pashinyan means by "transforming it into western Azerbaijan." This suggests an ethnic issue, and requires more research. Hetq (Armenia) and BBC Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan, Czechoslovakia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-17-2018 (04-17-2018, 12:53 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Seems like Israel or whoever it is should be buying cruise Syrian media retracted that claim. The reason given for making the claim is that the Syrians are extremely nervous, and they overreacted. The Israelis are also extremely nervous, and they're expecting some kind of retaliation from Iran for last week's attack. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-18-2018 The Russians and Syrians are defiant because they are not Deterred by Clintonian "Punitive Strikes" or by western brokered cease-fires. Boomers need to understand that this is NOT the 1990s. Russia has learned from the decrepit state it was in during the Yeltsin years. Only a Mass air bombardment followed by Ground Campaign with our forces outdoing Assad in indiscriminate destruction would force a western advance into Syria and a Russian retreat. Because of Globalism Such a operation is likely not possible as it would require a fundamental reform of Western Doctrine and configuration of western forces RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 04-18-2018 (04-12-2018, 07:25 PM)Mikebert Wrote: > You know John, you have posted detailed analyzes every day for I've read through your paper to understand your conclusions, though I haven't attempted to follow the mathematical analysis leading to the conclusions. I'll make some general comments, then end with some suggestions. So, as I understand it, you've found a way to put US presidents into classes, where Trump are Carter are disjunctive and Reagan is reconstructive. You've identified and analyzed various types of long cycles, including political cycles, ecocnomic cycles, religious cycles, cultural cycles, and instability/violence cycles in America in the 1800s and 1900s. So the first question going through my mind is - what is the target audience of this paper? I assume that it's Turchin and his merry band. The time that I met Turchin (in 2003), he spoke very highly of you. So the question is why you didn't ask Turchin or one of his students or one of his peers to review the paper. The fact that Turchin currently has a vitriolic hatred of me (typical of most of the world), makes me wonder what the interplay of personalities is here. But the question about target audience has a broader significance beyond personalities. Who do you actually expect to read and understand this paper? Let me explain through my own experience with the Fourth Turning Book (FTB). I spent much of 2002 reading ftb pretty obsessively, trying to understand the theory and its implications, and whether it was any better than astrology. Obvious problems, like why was WW II a crisis war, but WW I was not, simply made no sense at all. By 2003, I had developed the "Principle of Localization," which said that, rather than every country in the world being on the same generational timeline, every nation or society has its own generational timeline. That solved the world war problems, and many other problems. With that addition, generational theory finally made sense and seemed plausible. The next issues were theory validation and target audience. The FTB claimed that all the things that had happened in Anglo-American history essentially had to have happened, and were driven by generational changes. Well, if that's true, then it has to be possible to use this generational theory, including the Principle of Localization, to predict what happens next. That's when I set up the Generational Dynamics web site, and started writing articles that analyzed current events according to generational theory. In my own mind, the purpose was clear: If I could not use generational theory to analyze and predict current events, then I would have to assume that the entire theory was based on cherry-picking events in Anglo-American history, and was therefore worthless as a theory. The other issue for me was target audience. I wanted to write things that people would actually read. So on 5/1/2003 I posted my article on "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?" and interpreted Bush's mideast roadmap to peace through generational theory, concluding that the plan would fail. I remember thinking that this might be a completely wrong. Six months later, the Israelis and Palestinians might have shaken hands on a deal that would create two-states side-by-side blah blah blah. I predicted that it couldn't happen, and if it had happened, then I would have probably have completely dropped my interest in generational theory forever, and gone on to lead a much more normal and probably happier life. You asked me recently why I don't write more about theory, and just write about current events. The answer is that I write articles about current events that people will actually read, but I also try to work some generational theory into each article, for the people who are interested in that. Out of the thousands of people who read my articles, I would guess that less than 2% care about any of the theoretical stuff at all, or try to understand it, and almost all of them are familiar with the FTB. There are two parts to the FTB. One part is theory, and that's what interested me. The other part is social characterizations of generations (Silents, Boomers, Xers, etc.), and this is what interests most people. One thing that always surprises me about this forum is that almost no one who contributes to this forum has any understanding of the theory in the FTB. The poster child for this is Cynic Hero, who doesn't understand even the simplest theoretical concept in FTB, but sees the entire world through his hatred of Boomers. So that brings me to your paper. Who do you expect will read it? Do you care if anyone reads it? And how do you expect to validate it? Let's take an example. You say that Trump is a disjunctive president, and you say, "All disjunctive presidents have served a single term. ... [A] disjunctive president is usually followed by at least three presidential terms of the opposition party." So OK, I read this, and thought, gee, you must conclude that Trump is going to have only term, and it will be followed by three terms of Democratic presidents. But no, instead you say, "If he gains a second term, he will not be disjunctive and 2008 will not look like a critical election." Well, what does that mean? Was 2008 a critical election or not? Is Trump a disjunctive president or not? I get the impression that one has to wait until 2030 before we can answer either of those two questions, and by then the answers will be useless. So why did you make that last statement? Maybe you were just afraid to go out on a limb and make a prediction that might turn out to be wrong? This was also true of me with the roadmap to peace article, but I did it anyway, since I decided that I really had nothing to lose. If it was just fear, then you can decide whether you want to go beyond your fear, and make some actual predictions that will allow your theory to be validated or invalidated. I should add that this really isn't all or nothing. No theory depends on just one thing, and if you get one thing wrong, then you can go back and adjust your theory. I did this, for example, when I originally said that a major war in Syria was impossible in an Awakening era, but then when it turned out to be a major war I ended up developing an entire theory of Awakening era wars that applied to dozens of nations. So my mistake really turned out to be a huge benefit in the end. So my point is that if you're hesitating out of fear of being wrong, you might as well go ahead anyway, because right or wrong, you'll learn a lot from it. The second issue is that I'm very suspicious of any theory that applies only to US history, and nothing else. As I said, my feeling was that the FTB theory would be completely useless if it couldn't be validated internationally. If all your examples are from US history, then the charge of cherry-picking is quite justifiable. So my suggestion is that you try to broaden your theory to other countries. What does it mean for a country leader to be disjunctive, reconstructive, etc., in a parliamentary system, or in a communist dictatorship or in a fascist dictatorship? I would think that if your theory is valid, then it would be possible to made a more nuanced definition of the relevant terms, so that they apply to other countries. An example of where I had to deal with that issue is that FTB uses "high" to characterize a first turning, which makes no sense at all for a country that was defeated, so I called it a "recovery era," which applies to every nation, winners and losers. So those would be my suggestions. Consider writing articles on how your theory applies to current events. You actually used to do that when you were writing your books on Kondratiev Cycles, since people who bought your books could use them to make investing decisions. I think that you should try to find a way back to that mode of thinking. It's scary that you'll make mistakes, but correcting the mistakes will make your theory better. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-18-2018 You just laid out why I think you're worth paying attention to, and Mikebert is not. 19-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape e - John J. Xenakis - 04-18-2018 *** 19-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape ethnic violence This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Al-Qaeda linked JNIM attacks two peacekeeper camps in Timbuktu, Mali **** Jihadists in Mali dress as UN peacekeeprs and display UN logos (Reuters) On Saturday, Al-Qaeda linked jihadists carried out a sophisticated attack on two separate peacekeeper camps in Timbuktu in northern Mali. One UN peacekeeper and 15 jihadist suspects were killed while seven French soldiers were wounded. The most likely perpetrator was the al-Qaeda linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslim (JNIM, Group for Support of Islam and Muslims, GSIM). JNIM was formed in 2017 by a merger of four Mali-based al-Qaeda linked groups, including Ansar Dine, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Al Murabitoon, and Katibat Macina (Macina Liberation Front). These groups were responsible for a surge of hundreds of al-Qaeda linked attacks in Africa's Sahel (the strip of Africa just below the Sahara desert, separating the Arab north from Black Africa to the south), including Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The increasing frequency of JNIM attacks in the Sahel region, and the great complexity and scale of Saturday's attack, indicate that the capability of JNIM is growing. The jihadists, some of whom were disguised as UN peacekeepers, arrived in vehicles bearing the logo of the UN and the Malian army. They attacked using rocket-propelled grenades and mortars, and detonated at least one suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED). They attacked two separate peacekeeper bases simultaneously. They attacked the camp of the UN peacekeepers MINUSMA (Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission) with mortars, exchange of fire, and a vehicle suicide bomb attack. MINUSMA was established in 2013, and now has 11,000 soldiers. 150 MINUSMA forces have now been killed, making it by far the most dangerous UN peacekeeping mission in the world. The second simultaneous attack was on the camp of Operation Barkhane, which was set up by the French military in 2014, and includes troops from Mali, Chad, Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso – which operate collectively as the G5 Sahel. The rules are different for Barkhane and MINUSMA, in that MINUSMA is UN peacekeepers who are unarmed, while Barkhane is soldiers who are fully armed, and authorized to use them. France 24 and Reuters **** **** Canada debates whether there's any point to a peacekeeping force **** Saturday's attack has once again raised questions about whether there is any point for Western countries or the United Nations to have a peacekeeping force in the midst of warring parties. This is becoming a major political issue in Canada, where the UN is pressuring Canada to speed up its commitment to MINUSMA. Canada finally announced in March that it will send two Chinook transport helicopters and four Griffon attack helicopters to the MINUSMA mission in Mali. These helicopters will replace a German fleet of helicopters when Germany ends its commitment to MINUSMA. The problem is that Germany plans to pull out in June, while Canada plans to send its helicopters to MINUSMA in August. So talks are under way for the UN either to convince Canada to deliver its helicopters in June, or to convince Germany to delay its departure until August. One Ottawa columnist summarized the debate as follows: <QUOTE>"Canada’s decision to deploy military personnel there suggests none of the lessons learned from our 13-year war in Afghanistan are remembered. Nor is there memory of Canadian military involvement in the messy, inconclusive wars in Libya and Iraq, or our involvement in the disastrous wars in Somalia, Rwanda and the Congo. ... Even a cursory acknowledgement of the history of the country and the region, where “empires” were almost as numerous as the sands of the Sahara, suggests the injection of thousands of foreign troops will do little to settle historical geographic, ethnic and linguistic divides, which have been sharpened by the involvement, or more accurately, accentuation of extreme Islamic theology. During the colonial period, formalized in 1892, the region was called French Sudan and, at various iterations, was inclusive of Senegal, Ivory Coast, Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali. In the north, it overlapped with the southern regions of Algeria with easy, uncontrolled connections into Morocco, Tunisia and Libya. Some will suggest our Afghanistan experience was unique but in doing so we easily forget the beginnings of African peacekeeping in 1960 in the Congo. More are dying today than when the area was the personal fiefdom of the King of the Belgians."<END QUOTE> From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this commentator is correct. The Sahel region is headed for a war, and it makes absolutely no difference at all whether MINUSMA or Barkhane are operating there. The peacekeeping forces are provided for humanitarian reasons, which is also the reason given by the UK government for supporting last weekend's missile strike on Syria's chemical weapons plants. AFP and Toronto Star and Ottawa Citizen **** **** Thousands of Mali refugees flee into Burkina Faso to escape ethnic violence **** In a completely separate region of Mali, a separate crisis is brewing, with thousands of Malians fleeing to neighboring Burkina Faso to escape a growing ethnic conflict that has killed dozens of people in the last month, destroying homes and other property. The reasons for the clashes are very familiar, since I've written about the same issues occurring in country after country. The two ethnic groups the Dogons, who are farmers, versus the Peuls or Fulani, who are herders. The two ethnic groups may be able to coexist peacefully for years, but as populations grow, the farmers extend the farms, and the herders demand more grazing land and water for their cattle. Since the amount of available land is the same, no matter what the population, clashes result, often leading to war. Conflicts between herders and farmers are common in many countries, and I've described them in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, and even America in the 1800s. As population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. UN officials are becoming alarmed over the growing refugee crisis. In just a few weeks since mid-February, some 3,000 people have already fled across the border into Burkina Faso. The new arrivals add to some 24,000 Malian refugees who have found refuge in Burkina Faso since the start of the Mali conflict in 2012. UN Human Rights Council (UNHCR) and Reuters and AFP (20-June-2017) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Mali, Timbuktu, Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, MINUSMA, France, Operation Barkhane, Chad, Niger, Mauritania, JNIM, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslim, Ansaroul Islam, GSIM, Group for Support of Islam and Muslims, Canada, Germany, Burkina Faso, Dogons, Peuls, Fulanis Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Apr-18 World View -- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promi - John J. Xenakis - 04-19-2018 *** 20-Apr-18 World View -- Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Cuba's new president Miguel Díaz-Canel makes delusional promise to continue Socialist revolution **** New president Miguel Díaz-Canel (L) and former president Raúl Castro (EPA) Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez assumed the dictatorship of Cuba on Thursday, as hand-picked successor to 86-year-old Raúl Castro, who is stepping down. Raúl Castro was the hand-picked successor to Fidel Castro when the latter stepped down in 2008. He said that there would be no "capitalist restoration," and promised to continue the Socialist "Cuban revolution": <QUOTE>"In Cuba there is no space for those who aspire for a restoration of capitalism. The mandate given by the people to this house is to give continuity to the Cuban revolution in a crucial historic moment. “I assume this responsibility with the conviction that all we revolutionaries, from any trench, will be faithful to Fidel and Raúl, the current leader of the revolutionary process. We will have to exercise an increasingly collective leadership. Strengthening the participation of the people. I do not come to promise anything, as the Revolution never has in all these years. I come to fulfill the program that we have implemented with the guidelines of Socialism and the Revolution. To those who through ignorance or bad faith doubt our commitment, we must tell them that the Revolution continues and will continue. The world has received the wrong message that the Revolution ends with its guerrillas."<END QUOTE> Díaz-Canel was born in 1960, the year of the Cuban revolution. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, he is in the same generational class as America's Boomers born in 1945 (at the end of World War II). He will not have anything like the revolutionary fervor of the Castros, but will be more likely to seek compromise and avoid conflict. On the other hand, he undoubtedly thinks that the Castros' generation made some mistakes. It remains to be seen what will happen, but it's possible that he may consider one of those mistakes to be the unending hostility to the Cuban community in Florida. Many commentators are saying that this is an "opportunity" for President Trump to improve relations with Cuba. Actually, this is much more an opportunity for Díaz-Canel to improve relations with the United States. If he decides to soften Cuba's policy with the US and Cuban-Americans, it's possible that the Trump administration will respond with better relations. RadioRebelde (Cuba) and Granma (Cuba) and Guardian (London) **** **** The Socialist delusion in Cuba **** News commentators are saying that the retirement of Raúl Castro is the most important event in Cuba's recent history. Others say that the most important moment was president Barack Obama's opening to Cuba in 2014. Others say that the most important moment occurred in 2008, when Fidel Castro stepped down. Well, in my opinion the most important moment in Cuba's recent history occurred in 2010, when Cuba's economy was in shambles, and president Raúl Castro announced the end of the Socialist economy. The government would lay off 500,000 government workers (Socialist bureaucrats) and privatize many businesses. Here are the excerpts of the announcement that I quoted: <QUOTE>"After 52 years, the Cuban Revolution is a living and unshakable direction for the nation, and our people's will and determination to continue the construction of socialism, and make further progress in the development and updating of the economic model we must follow, and consolidate the gains achieved. ... Cuba faces the urgent need to move forward economically, better organize production, enhance productivity and raise reserves, improve discipline and efficiency and this is only possible through the dignified and devoted to our people. Today, the duty of the Cubans is to work and do it well, with seriousness and responsibility, and to make better use of resources available to better serve our needs. In order to update the economic model and economic projects for the 2011-2015 period, the guidelines call for the reduction of more than 500,000 workers in the public sector and in parallel the increase in non-state sector. The timetable for implementation [of the reduction] for agencies and businesses is the first quarter of 2011. ... Our state neither can nor should continue to burden companies and productive organizations with services and inflated budgets that weigh down the economy, are counterproductive, create bad habits and distort the behavior of workers. It is necessary to increase production and quality of services, reduce social spending and eliminate bulky improper gratuities, excessive subsidies. Hundreds of thousands of workers will move to self-employment in the coming years. Within the state sector, it will only be possible to go to places with a historical workforce deficit, such as agriculture, construction, teachers, police, industrial workers and others. A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to each according to the quantity and quality of work provided. The unity of the Cuban workers and our people has been key to maximizing the gigantic edifice built by the Revolution and the changes that we are now undertaking she will continue to be our most important strategic weapon."<END QUOTE> There's one part of this statement that I didn't sufficiently highlight when I first quoted it. Marx's Socialist Principle Of Distribution is "From each according to abilities, to each according to needs." This means that greedy capitalists are not allowed to make more money than they need at the expense of starving workers. Unsurprisingly, this principle has been a total economic disaster every time it's been tried. Cuba's 2010 announcement says: <QUOTE>"A matter of singular importance is the salary. We must reinvigorate the socialist principle of distribution, to pay to each according to the quantity and quality of work provided."<END QUOTE> In this case, "reinvigorate" means "abandon the core principle of Socialism." Cuba may still call itself Socialist, but as a matter of definition it's more Fascist than Socialist. This is not a surprise. Socialism has a 100% failure record, and I've posted the reason many times. As I've written many times in the past, Socialism is mathematically impossible as population grows. The number of regulators grows exponentially faster than the population grows, so by the time you get to, say, a million people, everyone would have to be a regulator. When you impose Socialism on an existing wealthy population, as was done in Venezuela, and what Bernie Sanders would like to do to the US, then it works ok until, as Margaret Thatcher would say, the government runs out of other people's money. Then disaster ensues. This is for the same reason. If the population has more than a few hundred thousand people, then there aren't enough government regulators. A country can save itself from that disaster by retrenching from Socialism as Cuba and even Russia have done. Sweden also did this, adopting Socialism in the 1970s, and abandoning it in the 1990s. North Korea and Venezuela are the disaster that happens when the country leaders refuse to retrench. Socialism is the greatest economic disaster in world history. It's much worse than Naziism or Fascism. The Nazis may have killed tens of millions of people, but in the last century, Socialism has killed hundreds of millions of people. Socialism has never succeeded, for the reasons I've given. Socialism has a 100% failure rate, for the reasons I've given. There is literally nothing worse than Socialism. And as I always like to ask, How stupid do you have to be to advocate a system with a 100% failure rate, that always leads to disaster? BBC **** **** Cuba's faltering economy and the dual currency problem **** As in Venezuela, Socialism has been extremely destructive to Cuba's economy. There is one unique thing about Cuba's economy, however. Ever since the Cuban revolution in 1960, Cuba has been depending on other Socialist countries to provide money to prop up its economy. For decades, the Soviet Union supplied that money. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Cuba's economy tanked. The Venezuela started providing money to Cuba, and Cuba was OK again. For two decades, Venezuela provided $6 billion per year to Cuba. But Venezuela's Socialist economy has been suffering its own catastrophic collapse in the last few years, and can no longer subsidize Cuba. Cuba is said to be searching for another country to provide free money, and they're talking to Russia and China. But Russia and China have their own economic problems, and they're also being asked to prop up Venezuela's failing Socialist economy. Cuba could be helped in another way, if international investors were willing to invest in businesses in Cuba. However, investors would have to know that they will be allowed to extract their money in later years, which would require reforms to the banking system. Cuba would also have to do away with its "dual currency system" before investors would be interested. The new president, Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, has promised to reform the dual currency system, but that is strongly opposed by Cuba's élite class. The bizarre dual currency system means that Cuba has two currencies -- Cuban peso (CUP) and the Cuban convertible peso (CUC). The CUC is pegged to the dollar, while the CUP worth 1/25th of a CUC. As one example, Cuba's peasants get paid in the cheap CUP currency, but the élites with government connections receive huge subsidies by converting their cheap CUPs for expensive CUCs. Díaz-Canel has said that he would do away with dual currencies, but other problems run deep in the economy. Despite the 2010 reforms, the government still employs three of every four Cuban workers, and they are mostly bureaucrats who produce little or nothing. The average monthly state salary is $31 — so low that workers often live on stolen goods and handouts from relatives overseas, according to reports. Cuba is close to economic collapse, and needs help from another nation. Díaz-Canel might turn to Russia or China, or he might turn to the U.S. and work to bring 50 years of hostility to an end. It will be interesting to watch and see what happens. AP and Bloomberg and Economist (23-Oct-2013) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cuba, Raúl Castro, Fidel Castro, Miguel Mario Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Socialist Principle Of Distribution, Venezuela, Soviet Union, Russia, China, Cuban peso, CUP, Cuban convertible peso, CUC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-20-2018 If the US is going to save Cuba, we should insist that they start discarding socialism for capitalism. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Tim Randal Walker - 04-20-2018 Consider the Cuban Missile Crisis. At a minimum, the USA would demand that Cube not host military forces of a hostile power. |