Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Warren Dew - 04-26-2018 (04-25-2018, 10:27 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:(04-25-2018, 10:10 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(04-25-2018, 10:04 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I think you meant "generational gap" rather than "gender gap"? Also, Woodstock must have been in 1971 not 1991? Hey, I was a square, so I have an excuse. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-26-2018 (04-14-2018, 12:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(04-14-2018, 11:09 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:CH86 Wrote:> More globalist tyranny, Assad Hasn't attacked The US, Europe or The government must Respect the bounds placed on it by the constitution. The President and Congressional committees can't authorize military action without the consent of the American People. Boomers are systematically violating the citizenry's rights, regardless of whether you consider Assad a war criminal or Not. Military action is constitutionally legitimate only if a Mass Vote is held and then later a congressional vote and congressional authorization has taken place. 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Moun - John J. Xenakis - 04-26-2018 *** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North-South Korea summit begins **** South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands in front of Freedom House at Panmunjeom, Friday. (Korea Times) It was magical. South Korea's president Moon Jae-in shook hands with North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un, smiling sweetly at each other. As if they were euphoric lovers, they held hands and walked back and forth, crossing back and forth across the line dividing South and North Korea, in order to prove to the world that all was peace and light. It's hard to guess what might be accomplished by this summit meeting, since the real summit will be held in a few weeks between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Korea Times **** **** Chinese scientists conclude that North Korea's nuclear test site has become dangerous and unstable **** When North Korea performed its most recent nuclear weapon test on September 3 of last year at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, seismologists outside North Korea detected an "earthquake" that followed the test itself. Concerns were expressed that the earthquake was actually a partially collapse of Mount Mantap, where the Punggye-ri site is located, and that nuclear radiation had been released. Unconfirmed reports later said that tunnel collapses had killed hundreds of North Korean workers. As we reported last year, Chinese geologists on September 20 were warning North Korean nuclear scientists that further nuclear tests at Mount Mantap risked a nuclear catastrophe, if the mountain collapsed in an explosion, releasing large amounts of radiation that could contaminate large regions of North Korea and northeast China for decades to come. Now, two groups of Chinese researchers one from the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei, and the second from the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration in Changchun, have both reached similar conclusions: That Mount Mantap did in fact collapse after North Korea's last nuclear weapons test on September 3 of last year. Here's the summary from China's Earthquake Administration: <QUOTE>"Seismology illuminates physical processes occurring during underground explosions, not all yet fully understood. The thus far strongest North Korean test of 3 September 2017 was followed by a moderate seismic event (mL 4.1) after 8.5 min. ... North Korea detonated its strongest underground nuclear test in September 2017. It attracted the public interest worldwide not only due to its significant magnitude (6.3 mb) but also because it was followed 8.5 min later by a weaker event. Was the delayed shock a secondary explosion, an earthquake provoked by the shot, or something else? We answer these questions.... According to our model, the explosion created a cavity and a damaged “chimney” of rocks above it. The aftershock was neither a secondary explosion nor a triggered tectonic earthquake. It occurred due to a process comparable to a “mirror image” of the explosion, that is, a rock collapse, or compaction, for the first time documented in North Korea's test site."<END QUOTE> The USTC study is awaiting publication, but a summary says, "The occurrence of the collapse should deem the underground infrastructure beneath mountain Mantap not be used for any future nuclear tests." A Beijing-based analyst points out that another nuclear test at the site would destabilize not only Mount Mantap but also Changbai Mountain, the site of an active volcano at the China-Korea border. South China Morning Post and AFP and Geophysical Research Letters **** **** North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap **** As I wrote last weekend in "22-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea suspends all nuclear, missile tests, shuts down nuclear test site" , North Korea promised to end all nuclear and missile tests, and shut down Punggye-ri, North Korea's nuclear test site. Shutting down the nuclear test site was particularly hailed by the international media that North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un was turning into a nice guy, willing to compromise and all that. Now the laughable news emerges that the nuclear test site is being shut down because another test would risk a nuclear catastrophe, according to Chinese scientists. As I wrote at the time, the North Korean concession was no concession at all, and in fact was the West's worst nightmare, since Kim would keep his existing stock of nuclear weapons, would continue developing nuclear technology without open testing, and would undoubtedly sell the nuclear technology to other countries, including Iran. Now it turns out that the North's whole farcical announcement was a negotiating ploy to make use of the threat of further testing to lock in concessions before the West found out. The collapse of Mantap Mountain represents a collapse of a major part of North Korea's negotiating position. With the approach of the forthcoming meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, Trump has said repeatedly that he was demanding denuclearization -- that the North destroy all its nuclear weapons. Kim had the threat of reopening the nuclear test site and performing more tests. But now that threat is gone, and even though the North can do further nuclear development, they can never be sure that their developments will work unless they test them. However, in another way the collapse of Mount Mantap strengthens North Korea's negotiating position. They can claim that if their nuclear test site is unusable, then the West should remove all sanctions, since they're no longer needed. BBC **** **** The politics of the collapse of Mount Mantap **** We live in a world where whether you believe 2+2 equals 4 or 5 depends on politics. So it is with the question of whether the Punggye-ri test site at Mount Mantap is still usable. So let's look at China's motives. China would like to use the North Korea threat as leverage to force all US military forces out of South Korea. Also, China has for years been developing numerous nuclear missile systems with no other purpose than to destroy American cities, aircraft carries and military bases. China is preparing for a pre-emptive attack on the United States, and they would be delighted to have North Korean nuclear missiles pointed at the U.S., if only to be a distraction when the war begins. But on the other hand, Chinese media makes it clear that, whether the Punggye-ri is theoretically still usable or not, China does not want any further nuclear tests there. The risk is too great, and a serious mishap could be a nuclear disaster that lasts for decades. Those mixed motives would explain the suggestion that the USTC conclusions are being watered down to avoid reaching a final conclusion that the site is unusable. This ambiguity preserves the North's negotiating position. The web site 38North, which is run by North Korean defectors in South Korea, is insisting that only a portion of the Punggye-ri test site has been damaged, and they conclude: <QUOTE>"In short, there is no basis to conclude that the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is no longer viable for future nuclear testing. There remain two portal areas located in more pristine competent rock that can be used for future tests if Pyongyang were to give the order. Whether that will stay an option will depend on reaching verifiable agreements that build on Pyongyang’s pledge to shut down the facility."<END QUOTE> There is no real evidence provided for this conclusion, and the motives of North Korean defectors are most likely to be that they don't want the North to get away with anything. In particular, they would want the sanctions to continue as long as possible. Washington Post and Global Times (China) and 38 North Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, South Korea, Moon Jae-in, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Mount Mantap, Punggye-ri nuclear test site, University of Science and Technology of China, USTC, Jilin Earthquake Agency, China Earthquake Administration, Changbai Mountain Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Moun - Cynic Hero '86 - 04-26-2018 (04-26-2018, 10:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap What a Laughable piece of S--t analysis that you've just posted. First You argue that North Korea and China are coordinating with regards to facilitating the North Korean Nuclear and concluded that china is current waging cold war against the US and is gearing up for a Hot war against the US regardless of any diplomatic solution or defusing In Korea. Yet somehow after stating said interpretation of events you conclude the best option is that the US agree to a paper "dismantling" of the North Korean program without actually removing the threat which effectively hands China a diplomatic victory and the US only gets a face saving paper "disarmament". Congratulations John X, you've just advocated abject appeasement. The military option to North Korea is clearly the best option available to the US but Boomers like yourself have political and ideological vested interests that cause them to consistently refuse that choice no matter how good the arguments and evidence for that option is. Globalists have a vested interest in forcibly democratizing China, not curbing Chinese expansion and/or aggression. Boomer globalists need a world war in order to force democracy on both China and Russia, and they need it to force the acquiescence of the American People to globalism under a synthesis created under conditions of total war: an acquiescence that is impossible without an Ideologically Joined total war. Because To launch a Major War, political leadership needs to have a sense of confidence of superiority over your projected adversary. Boomer globalist strategists Know that if a Nuclear strike on North Korea took Place whatever Chinese confidence of potential victory based on potential low morale of the US would immediately evaporate as events would have proven any such assessments false. China may continue expansionism afterwards but any projections to launch war with the US with a mindset of "we have everything to gain" would have disappeared. The Chinese May still have contingency defense war plans directed against the US afterwards, but any confidence in an aggressive war against the US would have disappeared after a US nuclear strike on North Korea. But boomer globalists would therefore lose their trigger event for WW3 to democratize the planet. For that reason; Our Boomer globalist leaders refuse to nuke North Korea. RE: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Moun - pbrower2a - 04-27-2018 (04-26-2018, 11:30 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:(04-26-2018, 10:00 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: **** It is South Korea and the People's Republic of China who want the North Korean nuke program shut down. At this point I give more credit to the People's Republic of China for insisting that a nuclear program of greater immediate danger to China than to anyone else be wound down. Trust or distrust the PRC as you wish, and I don't trust its politics... but danger is danger. If the PRC has its legitimate concerns about a needless peril from a regime long considered an international pariah, then it might win American support on that. There is always the danger that a North Korean nuke in a missile will cross only one international boundary before a premature explosion. Yes, Chinese lives are precious, too. China distrusts the nuke and ICBM programs of North Korea as much for technical reasons even more than out of fear of an intended attack. What John Xenakis advocates is anything but appeasement. Quote:The military option to North Korea is clearly the best option available to the US but Boomers like yourself have political and ideological vested interests that cause them to consistently refuse that choice no matter how good the arguments and evidence for that option is. Globalists have a vested interest in forcibly democratizing China, not curbing Chinese expansion and/or aggression. Boomer globalists need a world war in order to force democracy on both China and Russia, and they need it to force the acquiescence of the American People to globalism under a synthesis created under conditions of total war: an acquiescence that is impossible without an Ideologically Joined total war. I don't agree with X on many issues, and he might be right for the wrong reasons. But I am going to give the PRC the benefit of the doubt on this. We may all be hypocrites on favoring the lives of our citizens over those of other countries, but if appeasing the PRC is the price for dismantling nuke and missile programs in the PRC, then so be it. Sure, I would love to see China democratize. I would also love to have a million dollars appear in my bank account, too. As for me -- this Boomer does not want any new 'war to end all wars'. As the late GI science-fiction writer Robert Heinlein said, we need not seek adventure; it will seek us. Quote:Because To launch a Major War, political leadership needs to have a sense of confidence of superiority over your projected adversary. Boomer globalist strategists Know that if a Nuclear strike on North Korea took Place whatever Chinese confidence of potential victory based on potential low morale of the US would immediately evaporate as events would have proven any such assessments false. China may continue expansionism afterwards but any projections to launch war with the US with a mindset of "we have everything to gain" would have disappeared. The Chinese May still have contingency defense war plans directed against the US afterwards, but any confidence in an aggressive war against the US would have disappeared after a US nuclear strike on North Korea. But boomer globalists would therefore lose their trigger event for WW3 to democratize the planet. For that reason; Our Boomer globalist leaders refuse to nuke North Korea. (Cheap swipe, Cynic Hero: I suggest that you take a course in freshman composition in your local community college, where such is inexpensive and convenient. Your abuse of capital letters irritates people who consider writing a noble activity). As I see it, the Chinese are more likely to look at the USA as a market for inexpensive subcompact cars that Ford Motor Company wishes to abandon as an activity in America. Yes, I am satisfied that the PRC would love to transform the DPRK ) which is not at all democratic, ill serves and does not meaningfully represent any part of the Korean people except for the leading ranks of the alleged Workers' Party of the DPRK, and is better described as an absolute monarchy than as a republic) into a puppet state of the PRC. But that would be an improvement just for making North Korea more capitalist. As we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, we cannot readily impose democracy where it is unwelcome. Sure, we could restore it in countries that had abandoned democracy for fascism after peoples of those countries decided that democracy, however inconvenient it was, was far safer than the tyranny that people thought pointless after it brought economic ruin and national shame. Putin will not rule Russia forever, and when democracy ever comes to China it will stick in a country with a philosophical heritage more like those of Japan and South Korea than those three countries might want to admit. But now, the United States of America is not a democracy, or is at least a very flawed one. Our government by lobbyists is a new form of dictatorship, and our current President is more despotic than any President that we have ever had -- by far! 28-Apr-18 World View -- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply m - John J. Xenakis - 04-27-2018 *** 28-Apr-18 World View -- Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kazakhstan to permit America to use Caspian ports to supply military in Afghanistan **** Map: The Caspian Trade Corridor is part of the New Silk Road connecting Asia with Europe A continuing issue facing the US-led Nato military forces in Afghanistan is sending supplies to the landlocked country. Since the war began in 2001, most resupply has been done by shipping to Pakistan's port in Karachi, and then overland by truck across Pakistan, through the Khyber Pass, into Afghanistan. This route has been reliable for the most part, there have been times when political disagreements between the US and Pakistan have cause Pakistan to close the Khyber Pass to US military goods. As a backup, Nato has been developing several Central Asia truck and rail overland supply routes, such as from Europe through Russia to Kazakhstan, and then through Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. Kazakhstan is about to sign an agreement with the US that will permit Nato forces to substantially increase use of the existing Caspian Trade Corridor, by shipping through the Aktau and Kuryk ports on the Caspian Sea, completely bypassing Russia. Nato supplies from Europe will pass through Turkey and Georgia, through Azerbaijan to the port at Baku. From there, the supplies will be ferried across the Caspian Sea to one of the Kazakh ports, and then travel overland by truck through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan, and then by rail to Afghanistan. According to Kazakh officials, only nonmilitary goods will go through the ports. Nonetheless, Russian authorities are opposed to this US-Kazakh deal because it could change the balance of power in the Caspian Sea, which the Russians consider to be their own back yard. But since the purpose of the deal is to allow transit of supplies to the military in Afghanistan, the Russians fear that American soldiers might be deployed to the ports, and that the ports eventually will turn into American military bases. Another reason why Russians oppose the deal is because it gives them one less level to use against Nato -- blocking goods from transiting across Russia -- in retaliation for Western sanctions against Russia. According to one Russian analyst, "Under the current conditions of American-Russian and traditional American-Iranian conflicts, this [new US] presence will generate anger both in Moscow and in Tehran." EurasiaNet and Jamestown and EurAsia Daily Related Articles
**** **** Russia moves to increase dominance over Caspian Sea **** There are five littoral states bordering the Caspian Sea -- Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. For decades, they've been unable to reach an agreement on dividing the Caspian Sea among them. They agree that the entire surface of the sea should be open to all for commercial shipping and for fishing. However, there are also large deposits of gas and oil, and large disagreements over who gets to exploit them. Prior to 1991, there were only two littoral states -- the Soviet Union and Iran. The Soviets controlled the Caspian Sea, and forced Iran to follow Soviet policy. When the Soviet Union disintegrated, the individual states began setting up individual independent oil and gas development projects. By the end of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin was taking charge, and used every heavy-handed form of obstruction to prevent these projects from going forward. International laws provide for various methods for splitting up ownership of the seabed. According to one method, the size of the region that each country gets depends on the length of the coastline bordering the sea. Under this method Azerbaijan, Russia and Kazakhstan would get the largest shares of the seabed, and so these countries favor it. According to a second set of rules, there are five littoral states, and so the seabed would be split up equally among them, giving them each 20% of the seabed. Iran and Turkmenistan favor this set of rules, because they have the shortest shorelines. Putin has used these conflicting rules to provoke disagreements among the littoral states, with the result that in the 27 years since the disintegration of the Soviet Union no agreement has been reached. But recent bursts of pragmatism are bringing about agreements that may unlock some of the oil and gas fields. Iran and Azerbaijan are adjacent countries along the Caspian Sea coastline, and attempts by either country to exploit the seabed have sometimes provoked gunboat diplomacy by the other. But on March 28, Iran and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding on joint development of two oil and gas fields in the Caspian Sea. Russia and Kazakhstan are also adjacent countries along the Caspian Sea coastline, and they've also had disputes in the past about ownership of three fields in the northern part of the Caspian Sea. But they settled their disputes in 2002, dividing the three oil and gas fields between them. It will be more troublesome for Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to reach agreement. They are not adjacent, but they are opposite each other in the a region of the Caspian Sea where there are oil and gas fields in the middle. However, agreement on joint development may be difficult to reach because both countries' economies are weak, and they would have to share the multi-billion dollar investment costs for offshore development projects. And then they would have to share the risk that oil prices could fall again, making it impossible to recover the money they invested. There's one more emerging issue that needs to be highlighted. Readers may recall that in October 2015, Russia began launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea, attacking targets in Syria. The cruise missiles were launched from Russia's Caspian Flotilla, with a home base in Astrakhan, in the northern edge of the Caspian Sea. Russia has announced that the flotilla will be moved to Kaspiisk, Dagestan, near the border with Azerbaijan, and that the number of officers and sailors assigned to the flotilla will be increased. This change will increase Russia's dominance over the Caspian Sea. From Kaspiisk, Russia will be able to exert much more control over Dagestan and the other North Caucasus provinces. It will also give Russia more control over the entire Caspian Sea, and provide leverage to prevent building of east-west pipelines under the Caspian. Finally, Russia's warships will be able to launch cruise missiles at Syria much more quickly than in the past. AzerNews (Azerbaijan) and Jamestown and Asia Times and RFE/RL Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Caspian Sea, Iran, Soviet Union, Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Khyber Pass, Nato, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Astrakhan, Dagestan, Kaspiisk Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 29-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myan - John J. Xenakis - 04-28-2018 *** 29-Apr-18 World View -- Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Thousands of ethnic Kachins flee from violence by Burma (Myanmar) army **** The Je Yang camp for Kachin refugees along China's border in Burma (AP) Some 4,000 ethnic Kachins have been driven from their homes in the last three weeks by an escalating conflict between Burma's (Myanmar's) army and the separatist Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and are now sheltering in makeshift shelters in the jungle around nearby villages. An additional 15,000 people have fled their homes since the beginning of the year. There has been a longstanding low-level conflict between Burma's army and the KIA for several decades, but conflict has severely escalated since the beginning of this year. The conflict is expected to worsen, as reports indicate that the army is deploying reinforcements, including 2,000 infantry troops, fighter aircraft and helicopters. The Burmese army's fight against the Kachin ethnic group and other ethnic groups in northern Burma has been eclipsed in the international news by the ethnic cleansing by the army of ethnic Rohingyas in Rakhine State. That ethnic cleansing is still in progress. However, the additional reinforcements that the army is deploying were probably taken from the troops assigned to the ethnic cleansing activities in Rakhine State, indicating that Burma's government now considers the Kachin insurgency to be of an increasing priority. Democratic Voice of Burma and BBC and AFP and Deutsche Welle **** **** Burma (Myanmar) appears to be entering a full-scale crisis civil war **** In 2007, I wrote the article "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter," describing anti-government riots and demonstrations by Buddhist monks. Many people feared a full-scale civil war, but as I wrote at the time, that wouldn't happen because only 49 years had passed since the end of the previous crisis civil war. In the "Brief generational history of Burma" that I included with that article, I described Burma's last generational crisis war, 1948-58, as a civil war among ethnic groups, with intervention by the Chinese, with a war climax in 1958 when the army took over power, and turned power over to a civilian government. I wrote at that time that a new crisis war would not occur at that time, but would probably occur within ten years or so, as the survivors of the previous crisis war disappear. Well, ten years have passed, and it appears that Burma is entering a new full-scale crisis civil war, with ethnic cleansing of the Rohingyas occurring in one place, and an escalating fight with ethnic groups in the north. The tipping point into this new generational crisis war (or the "regeneracy," using the technical term from generational theory) seems to have occurred in November 2016, when the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) joined together with other with the militant wings of other ethnic groups in northern Burma to form the Northern Alliance, whose members will fight Burma's army together. The other militant groups are the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the armed wing of the Palaung State Liberation Front promoting self-determination for the Ta’ang people living in Shan State, Yunnan and Northern Thailand; the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the armed wing of the ethnic Chinese Kokang ethnic group, living in the northern part of Shan state, along the border with China; and the Arakan Army (AA), the armed wing of the Arakan people in Kachin state. These represent the ethnic groups that fought in the civil war that climaxed in 1958, and 58 years later in 2016 (right on schedule according to generational theory), they apparently joined together to form the Northern Alliance and fight a new civil war. Reuters (21-Nov-2016) and Time (9-Mar-2017) and The Irrawaddy and Foreign Policy Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Rakhine State, Northern Alliance, Kachins, Kachin Independence Army, KIA, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, TNLA, Arakan Army, AA, Kokangs, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, MNDAA Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-Apr-18 World View -- Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Kh - John J. Xenakis - 04-29-2018 *** 30-Apr-18 World View -- Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again **** Imran Khan at Sunday's rally in Lahore, Pakistan (Daily Pakistan) Imran Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time, and was once voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by Australia Magazine Oz. He turned to politics in the 1990s, and has become extremely colorful and extremely anti-American. On Sunday, Khan officially began his campaign to become prime minister. Khan gave what he described as the most important speech of his life to a huge enthusiastic crowd of supporters in Lahore. This was the same venue as the rally in October 2011, when he stunned observers by drawing 100,000 people to the rally, far exceeding expectations. Saying that "It's time for a change," he promised to have closer ties with China, to distance Pakistan from the U.S., and to "convince" India to withdraw its military from the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. In Sunday's speech, he provided 11 points for change in Pakistan, in what might be described as a fairy tale worthy of Bernie Sanders. Here's a summary of the 11 points:
Khan referred to the founder of Pakistan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, by the name Quaid-i-Azam, and said: <QUOTE>"The Pakistan that Quaid-e-Azam wanted would afford equal rights to all citizens including the minorities, where the Hindu community, Sikhs, and Christians would be equal citizens. This country was to be formed on the model of Medina, where the basis of law was justice. Prophet (PBUH) brought the entire Muslim nation towards truth and righteousness by way of his own example. The Muslim nation then ruled the entire world for 700 years but as soon as the royal system of kingdoms was established, the poor became poorer and the rich became richer. ... “We are on crossroads today, on one end it’s disrespect and on the other, it’s dignity."<END QUOTE> The last sentence refers to Khan's plan to sever all connections that Pakistan has to the United States, claiming that instead of being disrespected by the U.S., this move would restore Pakistan's dignity. The speech is totally delusional. If Imran Khan were elected, he would turn Pakistan into another Venezuela. Daily Pakistan and The News (Pakistan) **** **** Imran Khan threatens an anti-American and pro-Chinese agenda **** Pakistan has been plagued by frequent terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda linked jihadist groups, usually part of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, Pakistan Taliban). These attacks have particularly targeted religious minorities in Pakistan. Shia Muslims are targeted most often, along with Hindus, Ahmadis and Christians. In his speech on Sunday, Khan gave lip service to a Pakistan "where the Hindu community, Sikhs, and Christians would be equal citizens." However, the Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and Khan himself is a Pashtun, and appears to be sympathetic to the Taliban. He's openly supporting the Afghanistan Taliban. Even though it's clear that the attacks in Pakistan by the Taliban are sectarian based, Khan insists on blaming them on the Americans and, in particular, by American drone strikes on Taliban terrorists in the Fata (federally administered tribal area along the border with Afghanistan). In 2013 he got his followers to blockade the "Khyber pass," a major route into Afghanistan that is heavily used by Nato forces to truck equipment between the port of Karachi and Nato bases in Afghanistan. The blockade finally ended in February 2014. On January 1 of this year, US president Donald Trump tweeted that Pakistan had given nothing to the US but "lies and deceit" and provided "safe haven" to terrorists in return for $33 billion aid over the last 15 years, thinking of American leaders as "fools." This infuriated Khan, who accused the US for using Pakistan as a "gun for hire," and made two proposals: <QUOTE>"Two immediate measures can be taken by Pakistan to send an unambiguous message to the US: One, we must immediately remove excessive US diplomatic, non-diplomatic and intelligence personnel from Pakistan, so that diplomatic parity is established according to international legal norms governing diplomatic relations between two states. Two, we must deny the US GLOC and AIRLOC facilities which we were providing free of cost to the US. .. The lesson we must learn is never to be used by other for short-term paltry financial benefits ever again. We became a US proxy for a war against the Soviet Union when it entered Afghanistan and we allowed the CIA to create, train and arm Jihadi group on our soil and a decade later we tried to eliminate them as terrorists on US orders."<END QUOTE> The last paragraph refers to the 1980s Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan, when the US secretly funded anti-Soviet Saudi rebels who later turned into al-Qaeda. As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the US, India, Russia and Iran. In the Mideast, Generational Dynamics predicts a full-scale Mideast war, pitting Jews against Arabs, Sunnis against Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other. If Imran Khan becomes prime minister, it would move Pakistan along this trend line. Khan will follow through on his plans to develop closer relations with China, and to distance Pakistan from America. Times of India (4-Jan) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Quaid-i-Azam, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban, al-Qaeda, Fata, federally administered tribal area Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-May-18 World View -- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanista - John J. Xenakis - 04-30-2018 *** 1-May-18 World View -- Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Nine journalists killed by suicide bombers in Kabul Afghanistan **** Security forces run from the second coordinated suicide attack bombing in Kabul on Monday (AP) Two coordinated suicide bombings on Monday in Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan, killed at least 26 people, including nine journalists, who were apparently targeted. The first suicide bomber was on a motorbike and exploded his device near Afghan intelligence headquarters in Kabul. After the initial suicide bombings, journalists arrived to report on it, and were targeted by a second suicide bomber. There were other terror attacks in cities across Afghanistan on Monday, including a car bombing in Kandahar province that killed eight Romanian soldiers, as well as multiple Afghan police officers and civilians. Last Sunday, a massive terror attack in Kabul killed 60 people as they waited in a voter registration center, in a region of the city inhabited by members of the mainly Shia ethnic Hazara community, whom the Taliban has frequently targeted. Tolo News (Afghanistan) and Reuters and Business Insider **** **** The Taliban announces the Spring fighting season, codename Al Khandaq **** This new series of attacks just a few days after the Taliban announced its 2018 fighting season, codenamed "Al Khandaq." According to the Taliban announcement: <QUOTE>"The planning and strategy of the Al Khandaq Jihadi operations are organized by the expert and proficient skilled cadre of the Military Commission of the Islamic Emirate which is based on guerilla, offensive, infiltrated and various other new and intricate tactics against the new war strategy of the enemy, mainly focusing on crushing, killing and capturing American invaders and their supporters. ... Besides sustaining the ongoing illegitimate occupation, the newly adopted war strategy of Trump has been ruthlessly implemented in the villages and rural areas against our oppressed Afghan people for the past nine months. Thousands of additional foreign forces are being deployed inside Afghanistan and they are supplied with new devastating weapons and vast military authorities."<END QUOTE> The Taliban statement dismissed efforts at bringing about peace negotiations as "deceptive efforts" launched by the "ineffectual and corrupt officials of the puppet regime inside and outside the country are nothing but a conspiracy orchestrated by the foreign occupiers for enervating." Daily Times (Pakistan) **** **** Analysts guess at why Afghanistan's security situation keeps deteriorating **** Every time I read an article by an analyst or journalist trying to explain why the security situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating for years, it's pretty clear that they don't even know the most basic facts about the country. I've been explaining for years why any sort of "victory" in Afghanistan is impossible, and the reasons I gave years ago are still true today. I'll repeat them below, but first, let's take a look at some of the reasons that the media are providing. Axios writer Michael Kugelman gives three reasons that don't even make as much sense as a Donald Duck cartoon. Here are his reasons:
Kugelman's reasons were completely empty-headed, but a more intelligent attempt was made by Allison Jackson, AFP's Kabul Bureau chief. Jackson gave her reasons in an interview on Monday on RFI. Jackson was asked whether the security situation has deteriorated (my transcription): <QUOTE>"Absolutely. I don't know anyone who would say otherwise. I've only been here 8 months, but everyone I speak to says since 2014 the security situation has deteriorated significantly, and now it's the worst it's ever been, and there are a number of reasons for that. Nato ended its combat mission at the end of 2014. Since then, the Taliban has been resurgent, and is taking back a lot of the territory that they had lost while the Nato combat troops were on the ground, and the US presence is obviously much more diminished in comparison to what it was pre-2014. And Islamic State would have been merged in Afghanistan in 2014 2015, and they claimed their first major attack in 2016, in the summer of 2016, with an attack on Shias, and since then have launched more than a dozen attacks in Kabul alone. They've come under significant pressure. The Taliban has also come under significant pressure, following Donald Trump's new strategy in August, and that announcement basically gave the US air force and special forces much more leeway to go after the Taliban, IS, other militant groups. I think what these sorts of attacks show is that even in the heart of Kabul, ordinary Afghans are extremely vulnerable, the government is not able to secure the capital city. Resolute Support, which is the name of Nato's mission here, has said that protecting Kabul is a priority, but they've also admitted that it's very difficult to protect a city that is so porous as Kabul."<END QUOTE> Jackson's entire explanation is that the security situation has worsened because of the withdrawal of most Nato forces in 2014. That makes sense, but it's not particularly useful because it doesn't explain why Nato forces are needed in the first place. There are dozens of countries where no Nato troops aren't deployed. Why does Afghanistan have terror attacks when those countries don't? Kugelman's office is in Washington DC, far from Afghanistan, so there's no reason to expect him to know anything, unless he makes a special effort, which apparently he hasn't. But Jackson has been Kabul bureau chief for eight months. During that eight months, she might have learned something about the shifting ethnic and generational pressures that are bringing about these Taliban terror attacks. As I've explained many times, Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the extremely bloody Afghan crisis civil war, 1991-96, which mostly pitted the ethnic Pashtuns, who are Sunni Muslims and later formed the Taliban, versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. Now, twenty years later, Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, and a new young generation of Pashtuns is coming of age, raised on stories their parents told them about the atrocities committed by the Northern Alliance, and they're looking for revenge. But you don't have to know anything about generational history to understand what's going on. You just have to understand that there was an extremely bloody, violent civil war in 1991-96, pitting the Pashtuns versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan. And you have to know that the Taliban are Pashtuns, and that young Pashtuns are looking for revenge for atrocities committed in the 1990s, and that Nato troops are completely irrelevant. Those are simple facts that Amy Jackson might have learned during her eight months in Kabul, or that even Michael Kugelman might have learned, even though he's in Washington. Then they could give more intelligent analyses. However, as I've written in the past, I believe that this dynamic is understood by the Nato military, and by the US administration, and that they understand that this war cannot be won, but they have a larger purpose in mind. As war with China and Pakistan approaches, president Trump wants to keep American troops active in Afghanistan, and to continue to maintain several American military bases in Afghanistan, including two air bases in Bagram and Kandahar International Airport. These bases will be valuable in any future war with China. Under these circumstances, having troops in Afghanistan is what matters, whether the Taliban are defeated or not. Axios and ABC News Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Kabul, Taliban, Spring fighting season, Al Khandaq, Axios, Michael Kugelman, Amy Jackson, Pashtuns, Taliban, Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Nato, Resolute Support, Bagram, Kandahar International Airport Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-May-18 World View -- Russia confounded by the chaotic popular uprising in Armenia - John J. Xenakis - 05-01-2018 *** 2-May-18 World View -- Russia confounded by the chaotic popular uprising in Armenia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Armenia's parliament refuses to support popular opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan **** Supporters of Nikol Pashinyan demonstrate in Yerevan (Pravda) Armenia's political turmoil went into full-scale chaos on Tuesday, when the governing Republican party, which has a majority in the parliament, refused to support opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan's bid to become prime minister, leaving the country with no prime minister and no obvious alternate candidate. Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan stepped down as prime minister on August 23, in the face of huge street protests led by Pashinyan, and his threats to shut down the country with nationwide protests and strikes. ( "26-Apr-18 World View -- Armenia's protesters continue protesting after forcing resignation of prime minister" ) After the parliament on Tuesday had hours of acrimonious debate and then refused to elect Pashinyan as the new prime minister to replace Sargsyan, there were once again tens of thousands of protesters in Republic Square in the capital city Yerevan. Pashinyan told the cheering supporters, "We will block the streets, the airports, the metro, the railway, everything that can be blocked." The protests are expected to continue. The parliament will hold another vote on May 8, and if no prime minister is elected, then the parliament will be dissolved, and new elections will be held. News (Armenia) and BBC and Reuters and Bloomberg **** **** Nikol Pashinyan pledges loyalty to Russia, and everyone else **** The turmoil in Armenia is of crucial importance to Russia because Armenia under Serzh Sargsyan was a close ally to Russia and followed Russia's policy. Russia has an airbase in Armenia, and in 2013, Armenia chose to join a Russian-led customs union, rather than sign an association agreement with Armenia. The rapid collapse last week of the Sargsyan government sends shock waves through Moscow because of visceral fears that a popular uprising could similar bring about the collapse of Russia's government, led by president Vladimir Putin. Those who consider this idea far-fetched might think back to 1991, when a popular uprising led to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Mikhail Gorbachev, and its replacement by a government led by Boris Yeltsin. In the last ten years, Russia has used military force in Ukraine and Georgia in the face of threats of the governments of those countries to align themselves with the European Union rather than Russia. Until last month, Armenia was safely on Russia's team, but now that's no longer certain. Prior to the election in parliament that rejected his bid to become prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan gave a speech outlining his policies, including the following "foreign policy": <QUOTE>"If I am elected, Armenia will not make turns in the foreign policy domain; it will remain a member of the EAEU and the CSTO. This position does not stem from a person’s taste, but the logic of the movement that brought victory to the people. Demanding numerous changes in domestic life, the people did not and do not demand any change in foreign policy domain. We considered and consider Russia the strategic ally of Armenia, and this movement does not pose any threat to the [Russian Federation]. We will deepen relations with the European Union and the EU member countries. We will do everything for the [Republic of Armenia] citizens toward the EU visa regime abolition; we expect to start negotiations on it in the nearest future. The soonest implementation of the EU-Armenia agreement stems from our own interests. The government that I will head will deepen relations with the US, China, will remain committed to the process of [Armenian] Genocide recognition; Armenia will continue playing the role of the pioneer on this matter."<END QUOTE> Pashinyan's speech could hardly have been reassuring to Russian officials. But the current situation, where Pashinyan was rejected by the legislature, and massive protests and demonstrations are continuing in the streets, can hardly be considered any better. Jamestown and News (Armenia) and Tass (Russia) and AFP (26-Apr) **** **** Armenia in a generational Awakening era **** According to some reports, Russian officials have been caught by surprise by the rapid collapse of the Serzh Sargsyan government, since they had expected Sargsyan to have used military force to stop the protests and remain in power. Perhaps the Russians were thinking of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, who stopped similar protests by sending missiles into school dormitories to kill children, or dropping barrel bombs laden with metal, chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons on civilian neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. For those interested in the theoretical aspects of Generational Dynamics, it's worth taking a moment to sort out what's happening. As I described a couple of times, Armenia is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the bloody conflict in 1989-94 versus Azerbaijan over the enclave Nagorno-Karabakh. In this sense, Armenia is similar to America in the 1960s, one generation past the end of World War II. Every generational Awakening era (including the Unraveling era that follows) is politically torn by a "generation gap" that pits the traumatized survivors of the preceding crisis war versus their children, the generations that grow up after the crisis war and have no personal memories of its horrors and atrocities. Regular readers know that there's been a great deal of theoretical development on how these Awakening eras differ, depending on whether the preceding crisis war was an external war with another country versus an internal crisis civil war between tribes and ethnic groups. In the former case, the two armies each withdraw from the other country, and further contact between the populations is done diplomatically. But in the latter case, the two populations to live with each other when the war ends -- in the same country, the same villages and even on the same streets. This means that the hatred and the desire for revenge continue at a very personal level. In the case of popular protests when the previous crisis war was an ethnic or tribal civil war, the protests are taken as a sign that the civil war is beginning again, and the government uses that as an excuse to use massacres, extrajudicial killings, jailings, torture, rape and other atrocities on the political opposition. The extreme example is Bashar al-Assad, whom I've described is the worst genocidal monster and war criminal so far this century. But I've also described the same phenomenon, with varying levels of violence, with Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hun Sen in Cambodia and Maithripala Sirisena in Sri Lanka. But if the last crisis war was an external war, then popular protests are not viewed as posing a similar sort of threat, and lead to an "Awakening climax" which is often a bloodless coup. This is what happened in America when Richard Nixon resigned in 1974, and is what is happening now in Armenia with the forced resignation of Serzh Sargsyan. It's impossible to predict how this political chaos in Armenia will sort itself out. Right now, it appears that Nikol Pashinyan is so popular, that one way or another he's going to become prime minister, after which probably the same mobs that put him into power will turn against him, and he'll go from being the most popular to being the most unpopular. The only thing we can be sure of is that the chaos is going to continue for some time to come, and the only thing that Russians can do is watch and see what happens. Pravda (Moscow) and Chai Khana (Georgia) and World Policy Institute Related articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, Nikol Pashinyan, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia, Vladimir Putin, Richard Nixon, Ukraine, Georgia, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons pro - John J. Xenakis - 05-02-2018 *** 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program **** Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands next to a facsimile of the intelligence archive that Mossad had taken from a Tehran warehouse in January (Times of Israel) Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday revealed the results of a massive intelligence coup by Israel's intelligence agency Mossad. In February 2016, spies from Mossad discovered the top-secret location of a warehouse in Iran's capital city Tehran where thousands of documents related to Iran's past nuclear weapons developments were stored. Mossad operatives broke into the building one night in January of this year, removed half a ton of archived documents, and smuggled them back to Israel the same night. The material included 55,000 pages and another 55,000 files on 183 CDs. The archived material was of Iran's nuclear program that began in the 1980s, and ended in 2003, when the Iraq war revealed that Saddam Hussein was not developing WMDs. The trove of intelligence data is being used in the debate over what the Trump administration should do on May 12, when it must decide whether to abandon the nuclear deal that the West signed with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Those who favor continuing to support the JCPOA say that there's nothing in the trove of data that indicates that Iran has violated any of its obligations under the treaty, and that appears to be true. Those who oppose continuing to support the JCPOA say that Iran lied about the extent of its nuclear weapons program that ended in 2003. In particular, they say that Iran claimed that the nuclear development was only for peaceful purposes, while the intelligence data provides extensive technical information on how Iran was developing nuclear weapons. Those who favor continuing to support the JCPOA say nothing revealed in the intelligence haul was new, and that in fact it was known and published in a 2011 document from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Those who oppose continuing to support the JCPOA say that the 2011 IAEA document contains only a small fraction of the information that was revealed in the intelligence trove, and that furthermore Iran had not destroyed all the work in its nuclear weapons program, as it had promised. So this is all going to be a major heated and sometimes acrimonious debate between now and May 12, when President Trump will announce the administration's decision on whether to continue to support the JCPOA. It's also worth noting that in October 2015, Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of Iran's Expediency Council, said in a televised interview that Iran had begun developing nuclear weapons in the 1980s during the Iran/Iraq war, and continued development for many years. Times of Israel and International Atomic Energy Commission-IAEA (PDF,2011) and Times of Israel **** **** Importance of 2003 Iraq War revealed by the Iranian intelligence coup **** Even by the extremely low to nonexistent standards of today's journalists and today's politicians, the statements made about the Iraq war on a daily basis are abysmally ignorant, saying that it was a catastrophe and the worst war in American history and other idiotic things. Actually, it's the people who opposed the Iraq war in 2003 who owe the world an apology, since they were unwilling to stop Saddam Hussein from using WMDs to kill thousands of people. The new intelligence trove from Iran provides further evidence that NOT pursuing the Iraq war could have been a catastrophe. We now know that the Iran had a very aggressive nuclear weapons development program that began in the 1980s during the Iran/Iraq war, at a time when Saddam Hussein was using mustard gas and other WMDs on Kurds and Iranians. This program continued until October 2003, when Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa ending all nuclear weapons development. The fatwa was issued because the American invasion of Iraq and the defeat of Saddam Hussein had ended any possibility of Iraq developing nuclear weapons. Iran had already been victimized by Saddam's WMDs, and in 2003 Saddam was refusing IAEA inspections, so without the Iraq war there was little doubt that Saddam would continue development of WMDs, and possibly nuclear weapons. If it hadn't been for the Iraq war, then Iran would have continued nuclear weapons development, and would be a major nuclear weapons power in the Mideast today. Furthermore, since Iran has been working with North Korea, North Korea would also be a major nuclear weapons power today. Saudi Arabia would not have simply tolerated a nuclear Iran, so it would have obtained its own nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Saddam Hussein would undoubtedly at least continued development of WMDs. So the Mideast and the world would be very different and infinitely more dangerous places today if it hadn't been for the Iraq war. Bloomberg Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Mossad, Iran, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, North Korea Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-May-18 World View -- China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South Chin - John J. Xenakis - 05-03-2018 *** 4-May-18 World View -- China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China deploys cruise and surface-to-air missiles in South China Sea **** Chinese warship in South China Sea, April 12, 2018 (Getty) China has once again escalated its massive military occupation of the South China Sea by deploying offensive anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missiles systems. The missiles are being deployed on the artificial islands that China constructed in violation of international law, as the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled that all of China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal. According to military analyst Gregory Poling, it means that China will soon be deploying warplanes to the area: <QUOTE>"This should be seen as China crossing an important threshold. Missile platforms present a clear offensive threat. [The missile deployment] is a pretty clear threat to the other claimants and furthers China's goal of establishing complete control over the water and airspace of the South China Sea."<END QUOTE> Even before this latest deployment, Navy Admiral Philip S. Davidson told the Senate that China already has the military power to control the entire South China Sea, and only war would be able to stop this: <QUOTE>"China's development of forward military bases in the South China Sea began in December 2013 when the first dredger arrived at Johnson Reef. Through 2015, China used dredging efforts to build up these reefs and create manmade islands, destroying the reefs in the process. Since then, China has constructed clear military facilities on the islands, with several bases including hangars, barracks, underground fuel and water storage facilities, and bunkers to house offense and defensive kinetic and non-kinetic systems. These actions stand in direct contrast to the assertion that President Xi made in 2015 in the Rose Garden when he commented that Beijing had no intent to militarize the South China Sea. Today these forward operating bases appear complete. The only thing lacking are the deployed forces. Once occupied, China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania. The PLA will be able to use these bases to challenge U.S. presence in the region, and any forces deployed to the islands would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-claimants. In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States."<END QUOTE> As Davidson points out, China has repeatedly lied and hid its true intentions. Originally, the artificial islands were going to be for tourists and scientists, which was a lie. Then the military installations would be purely defensive, which was another lie. And now they're part of a massive militarization in anticipation, when preparation has been completed, to launch a full-scale war on America and its allies. According to an article last month in Chinese media, China is close to announcing how much of each country's territory it plans to annex: <QUOTE>"A precise continuous line will split the Gulf of Tonkin between China and Vietnam, go south into waters claimed by Malaysia, take a U-turn to the north along the west coast of the Philippines and finish at the southeast of Taiwan."<END QUOTE> China has also been increasingly threatening an belligerent with Vietnam, Japan and Australia, by demanding that they respect China's illegal sovereignty claims. China has also been increasingly military threatening to Taiwan, and may be close to a military invasion. China has repeatedly hidden its intentions, and will continue to do so until it's prepared to launch its attack. China is following exactly the same path that the Nazis followed. Xi Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is the same as Hitler's National Socialism. Like the Nazis, the Chinese believe that they're a Master Race that will conquer the world. They'd have to be crazy to believe that they could succeed at that, but the Chinese are crazy. I frequently like to quote Friedrich Nietzsche, who said, "Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." The Chinese will not be the Master Race that rules the world. Instead, they'll do exactly what the Nazis did -- bring destruction and catastrophe to themselves and the world. CNBC and The Diplomat and Newsweek (20-Apr) and US Senate (PDF, 17-Apr) and South China Morning Post (22-Apr) Related Articles:
**** **** China's military attacks US pilots in Djibouti with high-grade blinding lasers **** Opening ceremony of China's military base in Djibouti, August 1, 2017 (AFP) China's belligerent military actions in the South China Sea are being repeated as well in the horn of Africa. Chinese military personnel are using high-grade blinding lasers to target American pilots and American military crews flying over Djibouti in northeast Africa (the horn of Africa), according to the Pentagon. There were several incidents in the past several weeks. No one has lost his life, but several Americans have received eye injuries. The Americans are stationed in Djibouti at the Camp Lemonnier naval base which is the primary base of operations and logistics hub for missions across Africa. It supports approximately 4,000 U.S., joint and allied forces military and civilian personnel and defense contractors. Camp Lemonnier was built in 2001, but is now being challenged by a new Chinese base in Djibouti, built in 2017. The US has formally protested to China's government, and "requested" that China launch an investigation of the situation. As we reported last month, there is a parallel development in progress. Djibouti's strategic port at the entrance to the Red Sea is the Doraleh Container Terminal. A Dubai firm, DP World, had been operating the terminal since 2006, when DP World had signed a 30 year contract. In February, Djibouti seized control of the terminal, and abruptly terminated the contract without notice. Next, Djibouti signed a contract with Singapore-based Pacific International Lines (PIL), a company that works with China Merchants Port Holdings, to operate the terminal. So it appears that China is poised to take control of the entire Djibouti seaport. Whether in the South China Sea or Djibouti, China constantly lies and hides its intentions. China has been attacking American pilots and flight crews with high-powered lasers. We have to assume that this is not some rogue Chinese soldier, but is actual policy of the Chinese military, presumably to test out their laser systems in preparation for war. CNN and Washington Examiner and Washington Post Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, South China Sea, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague Gregory Poling, Philip S. Davidson, Xi Jinping, Adolf Hitler, Friedrich Nietzsche, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, National Socialism, Djibouti, Camp Lemonnier, Doraleh Container Terminal, DP World, Pacific International Lines, PIL Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons pro - Cynic Hero '86 - 05-04-2018 (05-02-2018, 09:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 3-May-18 World View -- Israel reveals intelligence coup on Iran's nuclear weapons program Americans Hate Globalist Tyranny and Human Rights Tyranny. 5-May-18 World View -- UAE troops and tanks deployed to Yemen's Socotra island in dis - John J. Xenakis - 05-04-2018 *** 5-May-18 World View -- UAE troops and tanks deployed to Yemen's Socotra island in dispute with Saudi Arabia This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Residents of Yemen's Socotra island protest UAE military deployment **** Landscape of Socotra Island, with hundreds of plant species found only there. Pictured are 'dragon's blood trees' (Corbis/Daily Mail) Residents of Socotra Island are reacting angrily and protesting about the increasing presence of hundreds of troops, tanks, armored transports and heavy equipment that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is deploying on the island in a power struggle with Saudi Arabia. Socotra Island belongs to Yemen, and is strategically located south of Yemen where it oversees shipping traffic traveling from the Arabian Sea, through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea through the Suez Canal. Socotra Island is similar to the Galapagos Islands, in that it's been isolated for millions of years, allowing for the development of hundreds of unique plant species found nowhere else on earth. Because of its unique plant life, it has recently been declared a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Since 2015, Yemen has been the target of a proxy war Iran-backed ethnic Houthis versus an Arab military coalition led by Saudi Arabia. The war has become an example of the old African proverb: "When elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers," in that the proxy war has caused endless misery to the ordinary people of Yemen, resulting in massive homelessness, starvation and cholera. The end of the war seems to be nowhere in sight. Now the 60,000 people of the Socotra Island are being pulled into the war as well, with the UAE deployment. Many of these people are furious at the UAE, and some are even accusing the UAE of deploying the military in order to steal UNESCO-protected species of plants and animals from the island. Middle East Eye and Independent (London) and Al Jazeera and Daily Mail (London, 25-Sep-2013) **** **** Rift grows between Saudi Arabia and UAE in Yemen **** The internationally recognized government of Yemen is led by President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who has been hiding out in Saudi Arabia because of the war with the Houthis. While the Houthis are backed by Iran, Hadi's government is backed by an coalition led by Saudi Arabia. As the war has continued for years with no end in sight, we reported in January, that there has been a split between coalition members Saudi Arabia and UAE. This has resulted in military clashes between Saudi and UAE forces in the southern port city of Aden. The UAE has been backing the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist faction calling for the division of Yemen into Northern Yemen and Southern Yemen, and claiming Aden as the capital city of Southern Yemen. The split between Saudi Arabia and UAE is potentially dangerous because UAE is attempting to extend its influence well beyond its borders into much of what the STC would like to be Southern Yemen. UAE's move to exert control over Socotra is seen as a further move in that direction. Anadolu (Turkey) and Middle East Eye (12-May-2017) and Press TV (Iran) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Socotra Island, dragon's blood trees, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, Iran, Galapagos Islands, Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, Aden, Southern Yemen, Southern Transitional Council, STC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 6-May-18 World View -- Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in Central African Re - John J. Xenakis - 05-05-2018 *** 6-May-18 World View -- Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in Central African Republic This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Muslim vs Catholic violence surges again in CAR capital city Bangui **** Aftermath of violence clashes in Bangui, CAR, on May 1 (Defense Post) Sectarian Muslim versus Christian violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has continued with armed groups and marauding gangs, both Muslim and Christian, almost nonstop across the country, since the violence began in 2013. The capital city Bangui has been relatively spared from violence in the last year, but this has changed in the last month, with sectarian attacks killing dozens of people, including attacks on a Catholic Church and a mosque. The violence mostly took place in the PK5 district of Bangui. Bangui is a mostly Catholic city, but PK5 is a mostly Muslim enclave within Bangui. I wrote about PK5 in November 2015, when Pope Francis visited Bangui, and particularly paid a visit to the PK5 mosque. The exact sequence of events isn't completely clear, but it appears that the violence began early in April when MINUSCA, the UN peacekeeper mission for CAR, joined local CAR security forces to launch a joint security operation in PK5 to dismantle militia bases that were hiding out in PK5. MINUSCA is the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (CAR), launched in April 2014 as a peacekeeping mission. Unfortunately, there has been little peace for MINUSCA to keep. CAR is a huge country, and pretty much the entire country is in flames, so MINUSCA has mostly restricted itself to Bangui. On April 10, the joint security operation turned into a bloody massacre, as the security forces battled several armed groups in PK5, known as the "self-defense forces," a name that reflects lack of respect in the Muslim community for either MINUSCA or CAR's current government. A total of 21 people were killed in a four-hour gun battle between the security forces and the self-defense forces, including a peacekeeper from Rwanda. 11 peacekeepers were wounded. AFP (9-Apr) **** **** Angry protesters bring corpses to MINUSCA headquarters in Bangui **** On April 11, hundreds of angry demonstrators from PK5 held a peaceful march in Bangui, and in a dramatic gesture, carried the corpses of 17 of the 21 who had been killed, and laid the corpses in front of the MINUSCA mission headquarters. According to one demonstrator: <QUOTE>"We, ourselves, no longer understand anything. Does their mission consist of shooting at civilians?"<END QUOTE> MINUSCA denied that civilians had been targeted, and said that only criminal gangs had been targeted. A spokesman criticized the demonstrators: <QUOTE>"This is not an operation against communities and specifically the Muslim community. The Muslim community asked our troops to launch the operation and put an end to the criminal activities. We regret the fact that the bodies were being manipulated, while they should be buried like every person who dies."<END QUOTE> So-called Muslim "self-defense groups" have been springing up in PK5, claiming to protect the Muslim civilians. The relationship between MINUSCA and the self-defense groups has become increasingly acrimonious. The self-defense groups claim that MINUSCA is trying to drive the Muslims out of Bangui entirely, while MINUSCA accuses them of extortion and violence against civilians. Reuters (11-Apr) and The Defense Post **** **** The self-defense group 'The Force' gets revenge **** One of the PK5 self-defense groups, "The Force," got revenge on May 1 when gunmen attacked a service at a Catholic Church in Bangui. Some 2000 people had gathered for the service, when armed men threw grenades and fired on the church. The attack lasted for hours, killing a priest and at least 15 people from the church, and injuring hundreds more. After attacking the church, the perpetrators moved into neighboring districts, looting shops and homes and attacking civilians. An Evangelical church member was killed outside his home. Various officials offered the usual rhetoric. The head of the Christian Solidarity Worldwide, Mervyn Thomas said: <QUOTE>"We extend our condolences to the parishioners of Our Lady Fatima Church, to the family of Albert Toungoumale Baba and to all those who have been bereaved. The attack on a place of worship not only violates the right to freedom of religion or belief, but also threatens the social fabric of the community that religious leaders of all faiths have worked to maintain throughout the recent conflict."<END QUOTE> Amnesty International issued the usual near-boilerplate statement: <QUOTE>"Central African authorities and MINUSCA must send an immediate and clear message to all armed groups and their allies in CAR: No attack against civilians will be tolerated and all those suspected of committing war crimes and other serious human rights violations and abuses will be brought to justice."<END QUOTE> La Libre (Belgium) (Translation) and Premier (UK) and Amnesty International **** **** Central African Republic crisis civil war continues **** Despite Amnesty International's laughable rhetoric, "No attack against civilians will be tolerated," CAR is in a generational crisis civil war, and there's no end in sight. The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013 by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until January 2014. After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013, French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka militias. The peacekeepers succeeded, but then the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been displaced. Although the CAR war appears to be entirely sectarian, that isn't entirely true. The Muslims are mostly herders, while the Christians are mostly farmers, and this is the same kind of conflict between herders and farmers that I've described in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, and even America in the 1800s. As population grows, the farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. In CAR, there have been situations where Muslim and Christian farmers were united in fighting Muslim herders. As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely. ( "2-Oct-15 World View -- Violence resurges in Central African Republic crisis war" ) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui, PK5, Pope Francis, MINUSCA, United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission, self-defense groups, The Force, Christian Solidarity Worldwide, Mervyn Thomas, François Bozizé, Michel Djotodia, Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 7-May-18 World View -- Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blas - John J. Xenakis - 05-06-2018 *** 7-May-18 World View -- Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan's interior minister shot by member of loony anti-blasphemy Barelvi sect **** Ahsan Iqbal (AP) Pakistan’s interior minister Ahsan Iqbal was shot in the arm in an assassination attempt as he spoke at a public meeting on Sunday. The gunman was about to fire a second shot when he was overpowered by people around him. It's believed that Iqbal will survive. The gunman was Abid Hussain, 21, affiliated with the ultra-religious Tehreek-e-Labaik party, which is the political party of the loony Barelvi sect that believes that anyone accused of blasphemy should be executed. This was not the first physical attack on Iqbal this year. A man threw a shoe at him while he was addressing a workers convention in February. Iqbal wasn't hurt and refused to press charges, so the police never investigated the motive of the perpetrator, or whether he was also a member of Tehreek-e-Labaik. (One media source claims that shoe-throwing as a form of insult is practiced in many countries, and is mentioned in the Bible in Psalms 108:9.) The usual questions are being asked about why security at Sunday's event was so lax that a gunman was able to get into the event. The reason being given is that the levels of terrorist violence in Pakistan have been decreasing in the last two years, and so less security is being used at events like this. Federal elections will be held this summer, and the number of political rallies will be increasing substantially. Sunday's assassination attempt is raising concerns that there may be additional terrorist attacks at this rallies as the election approaches. Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Reuters and Pakistan Today (24-Feb) and Bible Study Tools **** **** Barelvi sect and Tehreek-e-Labaik political party surge in popularity **** In January 2011, Salman Taseer, the governor of Pakistan's Punjab province, was shot and killed in broad daylight on an Islamabad street by Malik Mumtaz Qadri, a member of the "Elite Force" of bodyguards that were supposed to protect him. Taseer was shot 27 times in the back. Qadri confessed to the killing, and blamed it on Taseer's opposition to Pakistan's blasphemy law, which forbids blaspheming Mohammed or Islam. When Qadri arrived in court a few days later, Islamist lawyers showed him with roses. Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi, the head of the Barelvi sect, was unknown in Pakistan until he became Qadri's principal defender after the Taseer assassination. Rizvi also became the principal defender of the blasphemy law that Taseer had wanted to change, and organized public support for the law. The text of the blasphemy law, section 295-C of the Pakistan Penal Code, is as follows: <QUOTE>"Whoever by words, either spoken or written, or by visible representation or by any imputation, innuendo, or insinuation, directly or indirectly, defiles the sacred name of the Holy Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) shall be punished with death, or imprisonment for life, and shall also be liable to fine."<END QUOTE> This loony law has been massively abused in Pakistan. In Pakistan, if you want to kill your neighbor, make up some reason why he violated the blasphemy law, and then kill him, and you'll probably get away with it. Rizvi's aggressive support for the blasphemy law has made his Barelvi sect increasingly popular, and he was able to exhibit his power forcefully in October of last year. The government made a minor textual change to a government oath, and a mob of people belonging to the ehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah of Pakistan (TLYR or TLYRAP) political party, coming from the Barelvi sect, were able to paralyze multiple cities across Pakistan, with major roads blocked by a mobs of tens of thousands of Islamists in sit-ins, escalating into clashes with thousands of police. After weeks of paralysis, the Barelvi TYRAP party scored an enormous victory by forcing the government to completely capitulate to their demands. These demands included resignations of top government officials who made the text change, or who might have known about it. Barelvi TYRAP party has been gaining in popularity, and elections will be held this summer. Sunday's attempted assassination has raised concerns that Pakistan's loony blasphemy laws will be used to incite move violence, as well as to create a popular movement. The Nation (Pakistan, 18-Nov-2017) and Eurasia Review and The Nation (Pakistan, 18-Nov-2017) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Islamabad, Ahsan Iqbal, Abid Hussain, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah of Pakistan, TLYR, TLYRAP, Barelvi sect, Salman Taseer, Malik Mumtaz Qadri, Allama Khadim Hussain Rizvi Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 8-May-18 World View -- Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phno - John J. Xenakis - 05-07-2018 *** 8-May-18 World View -- Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Cambodia's dictatorial Hun Sen forces sale of independent Phnom Penh Post **** Phnom Penh Post on November 13, 2017 (Reuters) Cambodia's last independent newspaper, the Phnom Penh Post, is in crisis after the editor-in-chief was fired for refusing to take down an article critical of the new owner, and several senior reporters subsequently resigned after being ordered to take down the same article. Hun Sen, Cambodia's leader for 33 years, has become increasingly dictatorial since the opposition political party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) almost won the 2013 election, and has become increasingly popular since then. With another election scheduled for July of this year, Hun Sen has solved the problem by arresting CNRP leaders and jailing them on phony charges, and even getting the Supreme Court to declare the CNRP to be an illegal political party. In addition, Hun Sen has been jailing protesters, and shutting down media sources not controlled by the government. The weekend sale of the Phnom Penh Post is the latest example of Hun Sen's dictatorial takeover. The Cambodian government forced the previous owner to sell by imposing an enormous $3.9 million tax bill on the paper. The only other independent newspaper in the country, the Cambodian Daily, was forced to shut down last year after receiving a $6.3 million tax bill. An announcement on Saturday said that the Phnom Penh Post had been sold to a Malaysian investor, Sivakumar Ganapathy, executive director of the Malaysia firm Asia PR. Sivakumar's first act as owner was to issue a statement saying that the newspaper would remain independent. But then Sivakumar's next act as owner was to demand that the editor-in-chief take down an article posted on Sunday detailing the sale and Sivakumar's background, and then fire him for refusing. Then Sivakumar fired the editor-in-chief, and when he demanded of the other senior editors to take the article down, there was a mass resignation. As of Monday evening ET, the article still has not been taken down, and I was still able to access it. (Perhaps after all the senior reporters left, there was no one left with a password to the servers.) The article described numerous examples of Sivakumar's close relationships with Hun Sen and the Cambodian government, suggesting that Sivakumar might be controlled by Hun Sen. AFP and Phnom Penh Post (6-May) and Australian Broadcasting and BBC **** **** Phnom Penh Post had a combative relationship with Hun Sen **** As an example of other articles that might have triggered Hun Sen's decision to make sure that the Phnom Penh Post would become government-controlled, an article last week described Hun Sen's "catch and release policy." The way it works is that opposition figures are arrested on phony charges, kept in jail for as many months or years as necessary, and then released just in time to achieve some objective. For example, an opposition politician Bun Chhay was jailed on August 4 of last year, supposedly on some decade old drug charges, but just when it appeared he would pose a legitimate political challenge. Then on September 3 Sourn Serey Ratha, head of the tiny Khmer Power Party, was arrested over a Facebook post criticizing the government’s recent military stand-off with Laos. This cleared away the only viable competitors to Hun Sen's reelection, but the arrests caused an international uproar, with threats by the US and the EU to withdraw aid. According to the Phnom Penh Post article, the "catch and release" strategy was completed last week: <QUOTE>"Last week, the EU publicly acknowledged that it would be taking the extraordinary step of sending a team to review its General Scheme of Preferences with Cambodia – raising questions about the future of tariff-free access to one Cambodia’s largest trading partners. The pressure was reaching a head. Days later, Nhek Bun Chhay walked out of jail. “While it would seem that the [Cambodian People’s Party] has the upcoming election neatly sewed up, perhaps Hun Sen views him as a figure who can help diversify the electoral field just enough to gain some international credibility, while remaining too marginal to pose any real threat to the CPP’s power,” Strangio said."<END QUOTE> Whether the EU will be fooled by this remains to be seen. However, placing new sanctions on Cambodia will likely not have much effect. Cambodia is becoming China's most important political ally in the region. Already, between 2011 and 2015 Chinese firms funneled nearly $5 billion in loans and investment to Cambodia, mostly for major infrastructure projects, while making no demands on how Hun Sen runs the country. Like Pakistan, Cambodia is expected to be an obedient ally of China, and to follow China's policy directives in return for money. Phnom Penh Post (2-May) and Reuters and Reporters Without Borders and Nikkei Asia Review and The Diplomat (15-Jan) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Cambodia, Phnom Penh Post, Hun Sen, Cambodia National Rescue Party, CNRP, Cambodia Daily, Sivakumar Ganapathy, Asia PR, Khmer Power Party, Sourn Serey Ratha, China, Pakistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 9-May-18 World View -- Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no ag - John J. Xenakis - 05-08-2018 *** 9-May-18 World View -- Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Brexit negotiations in crisis as deadlines approach with no agreements **** Boris Johnson and Theresa May (PA) Britain's foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Monday declared that the proposal by prime minister Theresa May to resolve Brexit issues was "crazy." This has caused quite a sensation, because a high level cabinet minister is not supposed to openly criticize a major policy of the prime minister unless he wants to be fired. The policy in question, called a "Customs Partnership," is indeed delusional, but in today's highly polarized world, where a man can lose his career for saying the wrong thing about whether he supports Trump, then you have to be willing to support even delusional policies if you want to keep your job. In this case, however, May's spokesman said that the prime minister had "full confidence" in Johnson, and told officials "to do more work" on the proposal. I've written about Brexit issues many times since the Brexit referendum passed almost a year ago, on June 23 2017, and the intractable, insoluble problem is always the same: Keeping a "frictionless border" between Northern Ireland and (Southern) Republic of Ireland, despite the fact that Northern Ireland will be part of the UK, and Ireland will be part of the EU. Everyone says that there must be a frictionless border, so that people, trucks and goods can continue to flow freely back and forth between the two. The current open border was the result of the Good Friday agreement of 1999 that ended years of "The Troubles," bloody fighting between the indigenous ethnic Irish Gaelics (the Catholic Republicans) and the descendants of the English and Scottish invaders (the Protestant Unionists). Today there are a lot of people who genuinely fear that fighting will resume in full force. This is not a trivial concern, in that there's still a great deal of hatred between some Gaelics and some English, and there are still walls separating neighborhoods of the Northern Ireland city of Ulster, where there are still occasional flashes of violence. (See "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again" ) Officially, Britain is scheduled to leave the EU in March 2019. There are huge unsolved problems having to do with trade, migration, citizens' rights, and Ireland for which solutions are nowhere in sight. Ireland and the EU are demanding a proposal on the Ireland "frictionless border" by June, and it will not be met. Other deadlines are approaching as well. Concerns are widespread that the Brexit process is collapsing into a huge, unmanageable mess. And why wasn't Boris Johnson fired? For that matter, why hasn't Theresa May lost her job as well. The answer, according to many analysts I hear, is that nobody else wants these jobs, under the current circumstances. BBC and Reuters and Express (London) and RTE (Ireland) **** **** Theresa May's two delusional proposals - Customs Partnership and Maximum Facilitation **** Any Brexit proposal by Britain also has to be approved by the EU27, the 27 nations of the EU excluding the UK. Theresa May has two proposals both of which are delusional for many reasons, not the least of which is that there is no chance that the EU27 will approve either of them. But the British politicians and the British press keep talking about them without even considering whether the EU will approve them. One proposal is called the "Customs Partnership." Businesses shipping goods from foreign countries into Britain will be charged tariffs according to EU rules. The goods will then be tracked, and if they stay in Britain, then the businesses can claim a rebate of any overpayment. If not, then Britain forwards the tariff to the EU. This leaves the Irish border frictionless, since goods can flow across the border freely, since the tariff has already been paid. This is the plan that Boris Johnson is calling "crazy," because Britain would still be bound by EU rules that the whole Brexit plan was supposed to free them of: <QUOTE>"It’s totally untried and would make it very, very difficult to do free trade deals. If you have the new customs partnership, you have a crazy system whereby you end up collecting the tariffs on behalf of the EU at the UK frontier. If the EU decides to impose punitive tariffs on something the UK wants to bring in cheaply there’s nothing you can do. That’s not taking back control of your trade policy, it’s not taking back control of your laws, it’s not taking back control of your borders and it’s actually not taking back control of your money either, because tariffs would get paid centrally back to Brussels."<END QUOTE> He said that the plan would create "a whole new web of bureaucracy," and would not meet the key test of Britain "taking back control" from Brussels. In other words, the Customs Partnership would defeat the whole purpose of Brexit. Theresa May's second proposal is called "Maximum Facilitation." Shipping firms would operate as "trusted traders" so they can move goods freely as EU tariff is only paid when goods arrive in destination country. Goods would be electronically tracked and pre-cleared with tax authorities. There would be a frictionless border in Ireland, because goods would move freely back and forth, and would be tracked by means of some yet to be developed technology. The EU has dismissed this proposal as "magical thinking," because it assumes that "trusted traders" can be trusted, and because the required technology is not possible in the foreseeable future. Daily Mail (London) and The Week (UK) and Guardian (London) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, The Troubles, Gaelics, Customs Partnership, Maximum Facilitation, magical thinking Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Lore - John J. Xenakis - 05-08-2018 *** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni
**** **** European politicians have a lot to learn from North and South Korean leaders, by Loretta Napoleoni **** South Koreans watching tv admire Kim Jong-un's highly fashionable haircut It is true that the barycenter of the world is moving to the east, not only economically but above all politically. Our politicians would do well to pay attention to how high-level politics is done in the east, since they would learn something. The most recent masterful lesson of international diplomacy comes from the sadly famous demilitarized zone (DMZ), the scar of the cold war that runs along the 38th parallel and which divides the Korean peninsula in two. The dictator Kim Jong-un, considered crazy and bloody until four months ago, took part in a historic summit in South Korea, still 'enemy' territory, and where neither his father nor his grandfather ever set foot. He did it with all the honors reserved for a great head of state. The South Korean president Moon Jae-in, who has spent the last twenty years to get this meeting, is the country's spokesman. Meanwhile, Kim has used every political strategy, including the diplomacy of the Olympics, to get closer to the common goal: the peace agreement between the two nations. The peace between these two countries -- which for three thousand years have been a unique geographical and linguistic expression, a single culture, a sovereign nation with the same people -- will open the doors to economic and commercial cooperation. The model will be that of the old European Common Market: exploiting the economic interdependencies and the resources of both to modernize the North and produce well-being throughout the peninsula. The union has the potential to give life to an economy much stronger than Japan's. North and South, therefore, have common interests that they can pursue jointly. The obstacles are many. First of all, even if both have signed a peace armistice, the two countries are still at war. The People's Republic of North Korea is a buffer state for China, while South Korea is a very important US military base in the Pacific. In short, to get to shake hands on the 38th parallel and plant the tree of peace the two Korean leaders have had to convince Washington and Beijing to let them do it. **** **** Brexit and other European fiascos in diplomacy **** If we compare this lesson of international diplomacy with European post-electoral fiascos -- the last nation to prove incapable of forming a government on the basis of electoral results is Italy -- and animosities within the European Union, for example, Brexit, we realize why the axis of the world is moving to the east. To complete the sad picture of the decadence of politics in Europe, there are relations of subjugation with Washington. What about Macron crossing the ocean to present to Trump the European iron will to go ahead with the agreement with Iran and then change his mind twenty four hours after landing? Remarkable is the difference with President Moon (whose wife does not dress Chanel like the first French and American ladies), Moon is a politician of substance, who has clear ideas about the future of his nation, is not a populist. Of course there is always Angela Merkel who clearly told Trump -- who continued to bomb the world with twitter triumphalists on the Korean summit presented as a creation -- not to trust Kim Jong-un. Yes, Merkel is a clever politician, but she has to play in a team of wives and has no interlocutor to work with seriously. Here are some forecasts: Trump and Kim will meet, possibly in June. The peace agreement between the two leaders will be endorsed by the White House, at which point they will begin to work at the ceremony for the signing of the treaty, which will take place before November 2018, namely the mid-term US elections. Trump will be credited with all the glory but will Kim and Moon let him do that? The North Korean dictator seems less inclined than the South Korean president to stroke Trump's ego. But he should be very careful, as the US president may walk away from the summit and Kim and Moon would end up with no deal. But if things go according to plans, Kim will reiterate the commitment to freeze nuclear warheads and details of denuclearization will be postponed to another summit, which will take place in 2019. Meanwhile, North and South Korea will quietly start to cooperate economically, despite international sanctions. Southern investors will therefore have priority access to the process of modernizing the north. In Europe the bickering on Brexit will not disappear. The tensions between the right-wing populism of Eastern Europe and Brussels will increase, risking the implosion of the whole structure. Italy will most likely revive, but the results will not be better. In short, the scenarios are not at all positive. The last detail: Kim's haircut will continue to be more and more fashionable, while Merkel's will be considered passé. Loretta Napoleoni is an Italian economist and analyst, and author of the 2018 book, North Korea: The Country We Love To Hate[b] [b]KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Loretta Napoleoni, North Korea, South Korea, Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in, Brexit, Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 10-May-18 World View -- Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Be - John J. Xenakis - 05-09-2018 *** 10-May-18 World View -- Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Killing of two priests escalates farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria **** Nigerian Police A prototypical conflict between herders and farmers in central Nigeria has suddenly escalated in a sectarian manner with the killing of two Catholic priests, Joseph Gor and Felix Tyolaha, and other worshippers on April 24. The attack occurred in the town of Mbalom, just south of Makurdi, which is the capital city of Benue State in Nigeria. I've written many times that many ethnic wars are based on fundamental clashes between farmer tribes and herder tribes. In country after country, there a classic and recurring battle between herders and farmers, I've described in Central African Republic, Nigeria, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the 1800s. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down. In Nigeria's Benue State, the herders are mostly Muslims from the Fulani tribe. Farmers are mostly Christians from a number of tribes, including the Tiv, Mambila and Bachama tribes. The continuing tit-for-tat violence between herders and farmers in Benue State has already killed thousands of people and left tens of thousands homeless, So the April 24 murder of the priests and worshippers was immediately blamed by the public and the media on Muslim Fulani herders, but to this day there is no solid evidence that the gunmen were Fulanis. In fact, the assailants took money, valuables and communion wine, suggesting that the motive was robbery rather than gaining farmland. Vanguard (Nigeria, 24-Apr) and Anglican News **** **** News of revenge attacks by farmers criticized as fake news **** Three days later, a Nigeria newspaper the Daily Trust reported on revenge attacks by Christian farmers from the Tiv tribe on ethnic Hausas in the Benue State capital city Makurdi. A Hausa community leader was quoted as wondering why Tiv farmers would target Hausa people, since they were not the herders who allegedly attacked the priests: <QUOTE>"Last Tuesday, we saw our people running helter-skelter in the city that they brought the corpses of Church priests that were killed at Dukwayango village and then suddenly Tiv youth started attacking our people. As I am talking to you they have killed over eight people, over 20 sustained injuries and several shops were razed while over eleven people were missing. We are not farmers, we don’t rear animals. We are just traders. These things happened in villages and in the bushes. Why are Tiv youth killing our people?"<END QUOTE> The chief Imam of a mosque in Makurdi told the BBC Hausa service that he personally saw the corpses of 27 victims at the teaching hospital in Makurdi. He said while many were injured, some were burnt. However, some community groups are condemning as lies the claims that Tiv farmers attacked Hausa people in Benue, and say that the purpose of the lies is to promote sectarian violence: <QUOTE>"It is a tissue of lies and falsehood concocted to profile the Tiv youth in bad light. We consider the said story as part of the well planned agenda by our traducers to change the narrative in the state. ... The same report went on to claim that more than 10 Muslims were killed and 11 others missing in the state as from the reprisals following the attack on St. Ignatius Quasi Parish in Mbalom. ... It is completely fake news. The statement by the Police further said such was nothing but falsehood, believably meant to cause break down of law and order in the State."<END QUOTE> All that's really certain is that ethnic violence in central Nigeria, which has been growing for several years, continues to grow. Daily Trust (Nigeria, 27-Apr) and Independent (Nigeria) and Guardian (Nigeria) Related Articles
**** **** Israel, Iran and Syria exchange fire in first direct military confrontation **** As this is being written on Wednesday evening ET, there is news of missile and artillery exchanges in Syria and in and around the Golan Heights, as well as airstrikes by Israel's air force. Israel has struck Iranian missile depots and other Iranian military targets in Syria several times in the last few weeks, promising to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up a force capable of attacking Syria. For several weeks, Israel has been stepping up its military forces on the border with Lebanon, in anticipation of a retaliatory strike on Israel by Iran. That Iranian attack has apparently happened, and there have been several hours of artillery exchanges over the Golan Heights that are continuing at this writing. The Israeli attacks on Syria have been more intense than they were in the past. There are reports that the city of Damascus is without power. At least 20 heavy rockets have been fired from Syria at Israeli forces, but there are no reports yet of Israeli damage or casualties. Reuters and Washington Post and AFP and BBC Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Benue State, Makurdi, Mbalom, Joseph Gor, Felix Tyolaha, Fulani tribe, Hausa tribe, Tiv tribe, Mambila tribe, Bachama tribe, Israel, Iran, Syria, Golan heights, Lebanon Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |