Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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26-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch s - John J. Xenakis - 07-25-2018 *** 26-Jul-18 World View -- North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea appears to dismantle its Sohae satellite launch site **** Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testifying to Senate on Wednesday (AP) Analysis of commercial satellite pictures by the 38 North website shows that North Korea has apparently taken a first step in dismantling facilities at its Sohae satellite launch site. This site has been used in the past to conduct multiple rocket engine tests, including at least two tests of the engines that ended up powering the first stage of its two flight-tested intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBMs). According to 38 North analyst Joseph Bermudez: <QUOTE>"Since these facilities are believed to have played an important role in the development of technologies for the North's intercontinental ballistic missile program, these efforts represent a significant confidence building measure on the part of North Korea."<END QUOTE> The action is being described as a "confidence building measure," following the June 12 summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore. It's also being described as a step in fulfilling the promises made by Kim Jong-un to Donald Trump during that summit. Adam Mount, a defense analyst at the Federation of American Scientists, said that North Korea is giving up little in its actions. Mount was particularly concerned that North Korea did not even invite foreign journalists to watch the dismantling, to verify that it had actually occurred. Instead, the North did whatever it did in broad daylight knowing that it would be detected and reported by analysts like those at 38 North from commercial satellite pictures that show actions on the ground that might be purposely deceptive. A South Korean official expressed puzzlement for the same reason: "We need further analysis to figure out why the North didn't turn the dismantlement activities into an event and whether the country is trying to control the speed of the process to maintain a pace it wants." Furthermore, it's not clear that anything significant was accomplished at all, according to Mount: <QUOTE>"The actions at Sohae are a helpful signal that Pyongyang wants to continue negotiations, but do not in themselves advance nuclear disarmament. North Korea still has not disclosed or offered to dismantle facilities that produce or store nuclear or missile systems, or the means to transport the missiles. So far, the facilities dismantled have been peripheral to these core functions."<END QUOTE> Furthermore, according to unnamed US government official referencing assessments by US intelligence agencies, the site "can be reconstituted within months." U.S. military intelligence has similarly concluded in May that North Korea’s dismantlement of the tunnel network at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site with explosives was also reversible in a matter of "weeks to months." In that case, North Korea invited journalists to watch the dismantlement, but refused to invite experts who could verify what had happened. There was the possibility that the explosions that occurred at the entrance to the tunnels did not damage the insides of the tunnels. 38 North and AP and The Diplomat **** **** North Korea's denuclearization timeline seems to be extending out indefinitely **** As I've been writing for many months, there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States. North Korea has had only one objective in the charm offensive since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the United States. All of the events since the June 12 summit meeting have been in pursuit of that one objective. Other than two reversible actions, nothing has been done to denuclearize or to end ballistic missile development. Furthermore, gasoline prices being charged in North Korea have been cut in half since March, suggesting that either China or Russia is supplying petroleum products to North Korea that are in violation of sanctions imposed the U.N. Security Council in December. US officials believe that these and other "maximum pressure" sanctions have forced North Korea to come to the negotiating table. However, a sharp drop in prices could indicate either that the sanctions are not being properly implemented, or that North Korea has found ways internally to adapt to them. Either way, they lose their effectiveness. The US State Dept. on Monday issued a 17-page advisory listing "deceptive practices" used by the North to bypass the sanctions, including the sending of slave trade abroad. It lists 42 countries where North Korean laborers are still being exploited, including Algeria, Angola, China, Equatorial Guinea and Russia, adding that the U.S. is monitoring them to see whether they violate UN Security Council resolutions. Washington has also singled out 239 North Korean companies involved in illegal trade and warned against doing business with them. On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo testified before the Senate foreign relations committee. He confirmed that North Korea is still producing fissile material for nuclear bombs in spite of its pledge to denuclearize. He declined to respond when asked whether North Korea was continuing to pursue submarine-launched ballistic missiles. The timeline for North Korea's denuclearization has yet to be specified, but Pompeo said that the US goal was for North Korea’s complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) by the end of Trump’s current term in office, which runs until January 2021, "more quickly if possible." Pompeo said that no sanctions will be listed until CVID is completed. Reuters and Chosun (Seoul) and US State Dept. and Guardian (London) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, 38 North, Sohae launch site, Joseph Bermudez, Adam Mount, Federation of American Scientists, Punggye-ri nuclear test site, China, Russia, Mike Pompeo Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 27-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria - John J. Xenakis - 07-26-2018 *** 27-Jul-18 World View -- ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** ISIS terror attack kills hundreds of Druze in southern Syria **** Mourners carry a coffin of one of Wednesday's victims (SANA) A series of gruesome terror attacks on Wednesday by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in the Druze-majority province of Sweida in southern Syria has killed at least 250 people. At least 56 militants carried out the attack. The militants went from home to home, stabbing civilians, killing families as they slept, before launching several suicide bombings. ISIS claimed credit for the attacks on its web site. The attacks targeted the community of 800,000 Druze in Sweida. The Druze religion is a splinter variant off of Shia Islam, and the Druze are considered apostates by extremist jihadists. The total Druze community in the region consists about one million living in Syria and Lebanon, 104,000 living in Israel, and 40,000 living in Jordan. They're an important political force in both Israel and Lebanon. In Syria, they've stayed neutral in the civil war. They've lived peaceful among the Sunni and Shia Arabs in Syria and Lebanon for over a millennium. However, ISIS consists mostly of foreign fighters who came to Syria from over 80 countries to fight Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, after al-Assad began committing genocide and ethnic cleansing among innocent Sunni women and children who opposed him politically. The foreign fighters in ISIS have no historic relationship with the Druze, so they were an easy target. In the early years of Syria's civil war, al-Assad's army provided protection to the Druze. Some Druze are now accusing al-Assad of having withdrawn that protection because the neutral Druze refused to join al-Assad's army. ISIS has lost a great deal of territory in Syria in the last year. They were driven out of their Caliphate in Raqqa by the Kurdish YPG, backed by the United States. And they were driven out of the region near Damascus by the Syrian army. There are still ISIS pockets in southern and eastern Syria. Some pundits had declared that ISIS had been completely defeated, but Wednesday's massive attack shows that's far from the truth, and additional attacks can be expected. AFP and CNN and Irish Times and Syria Direct and Sana (Damascus) **** **** History of the Druze religion **** The Druze came into existence as a secret society, and only announced itself to the world in the early 1000s (11th century). There was a brief period of proselytizing that ended in 1050. Since then it has been impossible to convert to Druze from any other religion. Druze marry inside their religion, with less than 1% marrying people of other religions. Within Israel, Druze are subject to military draft, unlike Israeli Arabs, who are exempt. The Druze creed arose from a branch of Shia Islam, but it incorporates concepts from Christianity and Judaism, as well from Greek philosophy and Hindu and Buddhist influences. Like any other society, they have had their generational crisis wars, during some of which they were victims of genocide, and in others they were perpetrators of genocide, making them no different from anyone else. A particularly bloody generational crisis war occurred in 1860 with the Maronite Christians, which is considered a victory by the Druze, resulting in the deaths of 10,000 Christians. It's only been in recent years that the two groups have attempted to reconcile. Pew Research and Jewish Virtual Library Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Sweida, Druze, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Maronite Christians Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 07-27-2018 The Druze seem to have been pushed around a lot, and easy prey for vicious attacks. Maybe they need a movement parallel to Zionism to assert their identity and achieve some modicum of safety. A Druze state? I'll support that. 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houth - John J. Xenakis - 07-27-2018 *** 28-Jul-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Saudi Arabia suspends Red Sea oil shipments after Yemen Houthi missile strikes tanker **** File photo of vessels sailing in Bab al-Mandeb Strait Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, temporarily suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean. The announcement was made after Saudi oil tankers were attacked by missiles launched by the Houthis in Yemen. It's believed that the missiles were supplied by Iran. The Iran-backed Shia Houthis, which represent about 15% of Yemen's population, invaded and took control of Yemen's capital city Sanaa in late 2014, driving out the Saudi-supported Sunni government. A war began in March 2015, which the Saudis claimed they would win quickly. However, the war is still going on three years later, with no end in sight. On Wednesday, the Saudi oil company Saudi Aramco issued the following statement: <QUOTE>"As confirmed a short while ago by the Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, H.E. Khalid Al-Falih, two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each with a two million barrels capacity, operated by the Saudi National Shipping Company, Bahri, and transporting Saudi Aramco crude oil were attacked by terrorist Houthi militia this morning in the Red Sea. One of the ships sustained minimal damage. No injuries nor oil spill have been reported. In the interest of the safety of ships and their crews and to avoid the risk of oil spill, Saudi Aramco has temporarily halted all oil shipments through Bab El-Mandeb with immediate effect. The Company is carefully assessing the situation and will take further action as prudence demands."<END QUOTE> Saudi Arabia has been sending 600,000 barrels a day of crude oil from the Persian Gulf to buyers in Europe and North America. Saudi Arabia says that the closure is temporary, and there are currently no plans to permanently close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, but if it were closed then tankers would have to take a much longer trip by traveling around the southern tip of Africa. For example, a voyage from Saudi Arabia to Rotterdam takes about 22 days via the Bab el-Mandeb and Suez Canal, compared with 39 days around Africa, According to one analyst, the announcement had already added $1 to the cost of a barrel of oil on stock markets. Bab al-Mandeb is a very important shipping lane, and permanent closure would have much greater consequences than just the price of oil. Egypt, Europe and the United States would have to intervene, according to one analyst: <QUOTE>"They have significant interests in protecting the freedom of the seas through the passageway. An international intervention against the Houthis may be just what Saudi Arabia wants."<END QUOTE> The Houthis have also claimed that on Thursday they struck Abu Dhabi international airport in United Arab Emirates (UAE) with a drone. However, UAE officials deny that such an attack occurred. Saudi Aramco and Bloomberg and Al-Jazeera and Press TV (Iran) **** **** Saudis renew airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen's Hodeidah seaport **** The Saudi-led coalition launched heavy air strikes on Houthi targets in Hodeidah seaport in Yemen on Friday. The Saudis had agreed to stop the airstrikes on July 1, at the request of the United Nations, to give the UN envoy an opportunity to negotiate with both sides and reach a ceasefire. On June 13, Saudi Arabia and UAE launched a "catastrophic" assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen, to regain control of it from the Houthis, who had captured it in 2015. The Saudis expressed the hope that the attack on Hodeidah could convince the Houthis to sue for peace in the proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However now, six weeks later, the battle for Hodeidah has ground to a halt. The Houthis had been much better prepared for the battle than the Saudis had expected. The Houthis had heavily planted landmines, and positioned snipers everywhere. The Saudis had simply underestimated the Houthis. The Houthi missile attack on the Saudi oil tankers has changed the scope of the war somewhat, since it's now a more international war than it had been. The Saudi-UAE coalition is using the missile attack as justification to resume the airstrikes on Hodeidah, and by closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait, they may hope to receive additional international support for the war. Al-Jazeera and Reuters and Middle East Eye Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa, Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 07-28-2018 (07-27-2018, 10:17 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The Druze seem to have been pushed around a lot, and easy prey for I laughed when I read this because it's such a preposterous idea. Imagine this: All the Arabs are super pissed off because Israel has taken a chunk of what they see is their territory. The Kurds want to take chunks of Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran to form their own state. And now the Druze pipe up and say that they want chunks of Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel for their own state. This would really add a rollicking new element to the Mideast circus. 29-Jul-18 World View -- Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win frau - John J. Xenakis - 07-28-2018 *** 29-Jul-18 World View -- Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Cambodia's China-backed dictator Hun Sen expected to win fraudulent election on Sunday **** Prime minister Hun Sen signs Paris Peace Accords for Cambodia in 1991; last year he declared the accords to be dead 'ghosts' (AFP) Cambodia is holding a supposedly democratic election on Sunday, but there's little doubt which party is going to win: the party is the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), and its leader is China's man, Hun Sen. China has done everything possible to ensure a Hun Sen victory. As the three-week election campaign began, China announced that it would provide $259 million in loans to fund an infrastructure project in the capital city Phnom Penh. China's ambassador Xiong Bo attended a CPP party rally to support Hun Sen. China has provided more direct election aid as well. China provided funding for the election in the form of $20 million for equipment, including polling booths, laptops and computers. This month, U.S. security-research firm FireEye said it found evidence of a Chinese hacking team infiltrating computer systems belonging to Cambodia’s election commission, opposition leaders and the media. There used to be an opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP). It came close to winning during the last election in 2013. But then in June 2017, in a local election on the outskirts of Cambodia's Kampong Cham town, it decisively defeated Hun Sen's CPP. CNRP leader Kem Sokha has been jailed on phony charges of treason. Hun Sen arranged for the Supreme Court to declare the CNRP to be illegal. So there's no longer a major opposition party, and party activists have been forced to flee the country. In the past year, Hun Sen has also destroyed the free press. Hun Sen closed 30 radio states, as well as the Cambodia Daily, one of Cambodia's two independent English-language newspapers. Radio Free Asia was banned, and of its reporters were jailed. The Phnom Penh Post, the last remaining independent newspaper, was sold to a businessman tied to Hun Sen. Hun Sen has repaid China by making Cambodia an important strategic ally of China. While Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and other countries oppose China's massive illegal annexation and militarization of the South China Sea, Cambodia strongly supports China, especially in international forums like ASEAN. China returns the favor by fully supporting Hun Sen's human rights atrocities -- jailing opposition politicians, shutting independent newspapers, and so forth. There's honor among criminals. Reuters and Bloomberg and Asia Times and The Atlantic **** **** Brief generational history of Cambodia **** From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Hun Sen is following exactly the same pattern that many other countries have followed after a tribal or ethnic civil war. After the war ends, the leader of the country, usually from the winning tribe or ethnic group, refuses to give up power, and becomes increasingly violent and authoritarian, using as an excuse that peaceful protests or negative news articles can turn into a new civil war. This excuse provides justification for mass slaughter, rape, torture, mass jailings, mutilations, and so forth. I've described this behavior in Bashar al-Assad in Syria, who has gone to the extent of using Sarin gas and barrel bombs packed with explosives and metal and laced with chlorine gas onto civilian neighborhoods and markets in order to kill as many women and children as possible. Other leaders that I've described exhibiting this type of behavior include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, and Joseph Kabila in DRC. Cambodian culture dates back to at least 5000 BC. During the period 500 BC to 500 AD, the Khmer people in Cambodia were strongly influenced by Indian culture, via India traders, bureaucrats and priests. When Khmer became a written language in about 300 AD, Indian characters were adapted for its alphabet. Cambodia adopted some Indian gods, but not the caste system of Hinduism. In the 1200s, there was a mass conversion of Cambodians to Theravada Buddhism, a religion that was also adopted by the neighboring Thais. There were several centuries of wars between the Khmer and the Thais, until the French arrived in the 1860s. Cambodia became a French protectorate in 1863. Cambodia gained independence from France in 1953, and supported the North Vietnamese against the South Vietnamese and the Americans in America's Vietnam war. It's easy to underestimate the horror of what happened next, since in the vitriolic political atmosphere following the Vietnam war, leftists like Jane Fonda vocally denied it was even going on, saying "I will never criticize a Communist government." And yet, the Buddhist society of the China-backed Khmer Rouge in Cambodia in 1975-79, led by Pol Pot, perpetrated one of the three or four top mass genocides of the 20th century, comparable to the huge genocides of Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, and Mao Zedong. The Buddhist Cambodian "Killing Fields" genocide, 1975-79, killed something like 1.7 to well over 2 million people, out of a population of 8 million. So around 20% of Cambodia's population were killed, making it possibly the worst genocide, on a percentage basis, of the 20th century. By contrast, the Nazi Holocaust killed around 5 million, which was less than 3% of Germany's population. Pol Pot was trying to imitate Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward in China, which was a genocide that killed millions of people out of some two billion. Mao Zedong and Pol Pot may be comparable in their genocides. In all cases, these millions of people were the subject of almost unimaginable atrocities, including torture and rape. By January 1979, the Khmer Rouge had so destroyed Cambodia that the country was too weak to fight off an invasion by Vietnamese forces. At the time, many Cambodians welcomed the Vietnamese invasion, because it freed them from the Khmer Rouge. The war between the Vietnamese and Cambodians was extremely bloody, until the Vietnamese finally withdrew in 1989. In 1991, prime minister Hun Sen signed a peace agreement called the Paris Peace Accords, a document that guaranteed democracy and human rights in Cambodia. However, like other leaders we've described following an ethnic or tribal civil war, Hun Sen has become increasingly authoritative and dictatorial, using as an excuse that unlimited violence is justified to avoid returning to the violence of the civil war. In October of last year, as Hun Sen was brutally cracking down in preparation for these new elections, he said the following in a speech: <QUOTE>"Don’t imagine you can hold a meeting like the Paris Peace conference again because the Paris Peace agreement is like a ghost."<END QUOTE> He told people to stop "dreaming" and harking back to the ideals of the agreement, because the Khmer Rouge were gone now, and so the agreement was useless "unless the Khmer Rouge returns." BBC (14-Sep-2014) and Diplomat (4-Nov-2016) and Phnom Penh Post (12-Dec-2017) and Cambodia Tribunal Monitor Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Cambodia, Khmer, Hun Sen, Cambodian People's Party, CPP, Xiong Bo, Cambodia National Rescue Party, CNRP, Kem Sokha, Cambodia Daily, Phnom Penh Post, Radio Free Asia, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, South China Sea, India, Hinduism, Thailand, Theravada Buddhism, France, Killing fields, Khmer Rouge, Paris Peace Accords Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 30-Jul-18 World View -- Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe electio - John J. Xenakis - 07-29-2018 *** 30-Jul-18 World View -- Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Operation Gukurahundi genocide becomes major Zimbabwe election issue **** Operation Gukurahundi grave from 1984 (bulawayo24.com) For years, it was forbidden in Zimbabwe to talk about Operation Gukurahundi genocide of the 1980s, and if you did, then you risked being arrested, beaten and tortured by the security forces of president Robert Mugabe, head of the Zanu-PF party, dominated by Mugabe's tribe, the Shona. But last year Mugabe was ousted and replaced by Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, another Zanu-PF Shona, the man whom Mugabe had fired as vice-president just weeks early. After becoming the new president, Mnangagwa said, "The people have spoken. The voice of the people is the voice of God. Today we are witnessing the beginning of a new and unfolding democracy." On Monday there's a new presidential election with 75 year old Mnangagwa facing, as a principal challenger, Nelson Chamisa, head of the main opposition party Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), representing the interests of the Ndebele tribe, historic tribal enemies of the Shona tribe. Mnangagwa and Zanu-PF are expected to win, either by popularity or election-rigging, depending on whom you ask. If Chamisa does better than expected it may be because Mnangagwa was a major architect of Operation Gukurahundi, the bloody genocide of tens of thousands in the Ndebele tribe conducted by the Shona tribe in the 1980s. Operation Gukurahundi was mostly based on the historical enmity of two tribes -- Mugabe's Shona tribe, and his enemies, the Ndebele tribe. Genocidal warfare occurred between these two tribes in previous generational crisis wars -- the Mfecane war that climaxed in 1828, the Matabele Wars that climaxed in 1897, and the Rhodesia civil war, climaxing in 1979. It was the last war that gave Zimbabwe independence, making Mugabe the President. Mnangagwa received military training in China in the early 1960s as a teenager. As Mugabe's right-hand man, Mnangagwa is widely blamed for leading the genocide against the Ndebele tribe. "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rain) was accomplished with the help of the army's 5th Brigade of 3,000 élite Shona troops, which had been trained by North Korea. Tens of thousands from the Ndebele tribe were tortured and slaughtered, under orders from Mugabe and Mnangagwa. Some families were pushed into huts that were set on fire and they either burned to death or were shot dead when they tried to escape. That wasn't the end of it. Since the 1980s, Mugabe and Mnangagwa have systematically won every election by marginalizing, jailing and torturing opposition politicians, marginalizing the members of the Ndebele tribe, and rigging elections. This has continued to the present time, and few opposition politicians believe that it will end now. Mnangagwa has refused to apologize for his part in Operation Gukurahundi. According to one opposition politician, "What we need from Mnangagwa is an admission of what happened, an apology and communal reparations for the victims of that time." Both Mugabe and Mnangagwa for decades worked together on Mugabe's "indigenization" program, which threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's and Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business. Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa turned Rhodesia, which was a wealthy country and the breadbasket of southern Africa, into today's Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket case. They turned Zimbabwe's stable currency into a worthless hyperinflated currency, with an inflation rate reaching over 231 million percent, so that the only trustworthy currency in Zimbabwe today in the American dollar. Because of the economic self-destruction, investors have abandoned Zimbabwe. With all of his talk of a "new Zimbabwe," Mnangagwa's principal objective to get international money to flow into Zimbabwe for him to spend. Guardian (London) and Newsday (Zimbabwe) and AP and Reuters and Bulawayo News (Zimbabwe) **** **** Robert Mugabe endorses the opposition candidate **** In a bizarre twist on Sunday, ousted president Robert Mugabe unexpectedly gave a speech saying that he could not support the man who had ousted him, Emmerson Mnangagwa. He did not say whom he would vote for, but expressed some support for the main opposition leader, Nelson Chamisa, the leader of Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). "I cannot vote for those who tormented me," said Mugabe. It's hard to believe the enormous irony of that statement. Mugabe is a war criminal, and has tormented, tortured, jailed and slaughtered his tribal and political opponents for decades, and now he's whining because he no longer has sufficiently palatial living quarters. However, this is the kind of self-serving attitude we expect of all politicians at all times in all countries. Mnangagwa responded with an equally self-serving statement, implying that a vote for the opposition would indicate evil intentions: "It is clear to all that Chamisa has forged a deal with Mugabe, we can no longer believe that his intentions are to transform Zimbabwe and rebuild our nation." BBC and Reuters and The Citizen (South Africa) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Zanu-pf, Robert Mugabe, Grace Ntombizodwa Mugabe, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, Nelson Chamisa, Rhodesia, Shona, Ndebele, Operation Gukurahundi, North Korea, 5th Brigade Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 31-Jul-18 World View -- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to - John J. Xenakis - 07-30-2018 *** 31-Jul-18 World View -- Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Attacks on Saudi tankers expose twin Iran military threats to international oil shipments **** Map of Mideast, highlighting Yemen's Hodeidah seaport, and shipping choke points Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait The US military is looking at options to keep two vital waterways, the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, open to commercial shipping. The increased concern comes about after Saudi Arabia suspended its oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, after a Saudi oil tanker was struck by a missile launched by the Iran-backed Shia Houthis in Yemen. The missile's warhead only partially detonated, causing a 2-3 meter hole in the hull, but if it had penetrated deeper and reached the 2 million barrels of oil in ship’s hold, it would have caused a massive environmental disaster. Saudi Arabia immediate suspended all oil shipments through the Bab al-Mandeb strait. To date, no other exporters have followed suit. A full blockage of the strait would halt shipment to Europe and the United States of about 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products, or result in substantial shipping delays as vessels are rerouted around the southern tip of Africa. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait controls access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Indian Ocean. Few people doubt that the missiles were provided to the Houthis by Iran. However, Debka is going further and reporting that the attack was orchestrated by a disguised Iranian vessel, the Saviz, a weapons-carrying spy ship, which had been under surveillance by Western naval sources for some time, as it was in a holding pattern in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Debka's reports are written from Israel's point of view, based on military and intelligence sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to warn readers that they definitely do sometimes get some things wrong. The Houthi attack is related to the Saudi-led offensive on the Port of Hodeidah, which is used by NGOs as the major port for humanitarian supplies for the Yemen population, and is also used by the Houthis for the importation of weapons. The purpose of the offensive is to recaptured the port from the Houthis. The offensive began on June 12, but has been going badly, and has made little progress, except to deepen the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which is considered the world's worst. The Houthis have targeted Saudi tankers in at least two other attacks this year. According to a Saudi energy consultant, the Saudi announcement about suspending oil shipments was done for security reason, but also has a political dimension, to gain international cooperation in the offensive on Hodeidah: <QUOTE>"Rather than allowing these hostile maneuvers to go unnoticed in the eyes of the world, the Saudi (energy) minister has placed Iran’s subversions of the whole global economy under the spotlight for everyone to see. The capture of the port of Hodeidah will go a long way towards putting an end to these disruptions."<END QUOTE> Saudi Arabia transports crude oil from its fields in the east, through the Strait of Hormuz, then through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal to Europe and North America. The Saudis have other choices for delivering oil. One possibility is to use the Petroline, and east-west pipeline that can transport crude from fields in the east to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing both of the narrow straits. It could also charter non-Saudi ships to carry the oil through Bab al-Mandeb, which it already with Asian customers using different routes. Reuters and Debka and CNBC **** **** US considers military options for Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb **** Tensions between the US and Iran have been increasing since the Trump administration pulled out of the nuclear deal in May. Since then, Iran's rial currency has been plunging to record lows, in anticipation of the imposition of new US sanctions on August 7. Some of those sanctions may limit Iran's ability to sell its oil, and this has led to tit-for-tat threats between the Trump administration and Iranian officials, including a threat by Iran to take military action to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It's now clear that Iran is not just threatening the Strait of Hormuz, but is also threatened Bab al-Mandeb. There have reports over the weekend that the US military was considering what options can be used to keep both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb open to commercial traffic, particularly oil tankers. For example, military studies suggest that an obstruction of Hormuz, by mines, small submarines, “swarming” attacks by boats, and land-based missiles, would be defeated within a few weeks at most by US and allied naval forces. It would also be a casus belli for the US to make a much wider-ranging strike against Iranian military and other targets. US military officials emphasize that if any military action is taken, it would be carried out by other countries, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and not by US forces. The National (UAE) and CNN and Haaretz and National Interest (28-Jun) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Houthis, Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Hodeidah, Sanaa, Bab al-Mandeb, Red Sea, Suez Canal, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Petroline Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 1-Aug-18 World View -- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plumme - John J. Xenakis - 07-31-2018 *** 1-Aug-18 World View -- Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets **** The Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran (OrigIran) Massive demonstrations that began in December 2017 have been continuing intermittently in cities across Iran since then. On Tuesday, the protests spread to the history central city of Isfahan. The protests a month ago were triggered by the collapse in the value of Iran's currency, the rial. At the end of 2017, the exchange rate was 42,000 rials to the US dollar. A month ago, the exchange rate had fallen to 90,000 rials to the dollars. One of the chants that protesters used in last months demonstrations was "We don't want the dollar at 100,000 rials!" Well, on July 29 the exchange rate crossed the 100,000 milestone, and by Monday, the exchange rate was 110,000 rials to the dollar. The rate has been since May, when the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal, and announced that US sanctions would be imposed on August 7. The plunge in the value of the rial means that goods imported into Iran from other countries now cost two times or even three times as much as they used to. As Americans, we're so used to being blamed for everything in the world, it's startling that the protesters are not blaming America for this increase in prices. Instead, their blaming their own government. Protesters blame the government for wasting the tens of billions of dollars that Iran received when sanctions were lifted after the nuclear deal was signed in 2015. From the point of view of protesters, that money simply vanished into thin air, and they blame that on the Iranian government, not the Americans. The protesters blame Iran's massive corruption, especially among the clergy, and the money that's being spent on foreign wars in Syria and Lebanon. Marchers on Tuesday were seen in video clips chanting "Leave Syria and think about us," and "No to Gaza, No to Lebanon — I give my life to Iran." The latter refers to billions of dollars being given to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and to Hamas in Gaza. Other slogans were much more personal: "Death to the dictator," referring to the Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. VOA and AP and Arab News **** **** The Grand Bazaar and the prospects for regime change **** The frequency of protests in Iran since the beginning of the year has raised hopes in the West that regime change was close at hand. Earlier this month, there were protests for a very different reason -- water shortages and pollution, and lack of water management. A vast agricultural area in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran lacks irrigation water. This is a region that was devastated by the Iran/Iraq war in the 1980s, and has a largely Arab population, which suffers official discrimination, as opposed to the majority Persian population. About 40% of Iran has been suffering from a serious drought since last year. There is a great desire in the West for something called "regime change" in Iran, although it's rarely specified what that means. It could mean that the Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, gets replaced, but his replacement may be worse. In terms of violent repression, Khamenei actually isn't very different from the Shah of Iran (Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi) who was deposed by the 1979 revolution. As we described last month in "Brief generational history of Iran's protests," Tehran's Grand Bazaar has played a pivotal role in protests and regime changes in the past. Tehran's Grand Bazaar is one of the oldest shopping malls in the world, with origins that go back as far as 1660 BC. It occupies over 8 square miles, and has hundreds of shops. So when there's a widespread protest and strike supported by the shop owners, and suddenly all the shops are closed, it is a significant event. The Tobacco Revolt of 1890-92 was led by tobacco merchants in the Grand Bazaar, but quickly spread to other merchants. The revolt fizzled because of violence from the Shah. But in 1905, there were new protests, led this time by the sugar merchants in the Grand Bazaar. These protests led to a generational crisis civil war, the Constitutional Revolution, which was a major "regime change" for Iran in that the Shah was then bound by laws defined in the new constitution. The White Revolution protests in 1962 were begun by a different set of élites -- the clergy, led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. This was too soon after the Constitutional Revolution to spread widely, and it fizzled quickly. However, it led to the Great Islamic Revolution in 1979. Once again, the merchants in the Grand Bazaar were among the leaders that brought about a major regime change -- overthrowing the Shah and replacing him with Khomeini. So now there are new protests by the merchants in the Grand Bazaar, thanks to the plunge in the value of the rial, something that affects them directly. Does that mean that regime change is at hand? No, it doesn't. If there's some kind of widespread revolt, it will almost certainly fizzle, like the Tobacco Revolt and the White Revolution protests. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is a different kind of change at hand, an Awakening era climax similar to the one that forced president Richard Nixon to step down in America in 1974. This will be the climax of the political confrontation between the generations of old geezer survivors of the revolution and the people in the younger generations growing up after the revolution -- the same young people who have been protesting in cities across Iran. Depending on who is in charge after this change, it's possible that Iran will once again be the ally of the United States, just as it was prior to 1979. Reuters and Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya and OrigIran and The Conversation (3-Jul) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Tehran, Grand Bazaar, Isfahan, Seyed Ali Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini, Khuzestan, Iran/Iraq war, Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution, White Revolution, Islamic Revolution Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 2-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexi - John J. Xenakis - 08-01-2018 *** 2-Aug-18 World View -- Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Report: EU and UK ready to accept 'fudge' to get through Brexit **** An anti-Brexit placard at the Ireland - Northern Ireland border crossing in Killeen (AFP) Brexit has been a pending disaster ever since the referendum passed on June 23, 2016, and many people in the UK and EU continue to look for ways to make the disaster as small as possible. So now the news is full of talk of a "fudge." As I explained a few weeks ago, "fudge" is being increasingly used as a stylish, fashionable word for what used to be called "kicking the can down the road." So in the last couple of days, there are reports that the EU negotiators are ready to agree to a "fudge" based on the so-called "Chequers plan" proposal by UK prime minister Theresa May a month ago. May was able to twist a lot of arms to get the plan approved by her Tory cabinet at a meeting at Chequers, the prime minister's country residence. But the euphoria didn't last long, as two of her ministers resigned four days later, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, and Boris Johnson, the foreign minister. The endless chaos in the UK government caught the attention of the EU negotiators, as officials in both governments increasingly realize the following:
It's become increasingly clear among EU officials in Brussels that May will be unable to navigate an agreement between the "Remainers" and the "Brexiteers," and there is no majority in Commons for any proposal. This would mean that the likelihood of a hard "no deal" Brexit is increasing by the day. For that reason, EU officials are increasingly willing to "fudge" the negotiations. The plan for future EU-UK ties will not be a formal agreement, but will be an aspirational statement to say as little as possible, to get past the March 29 deadline. The main condition would be a watertight backstop arrangement to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The backstop would require setting up a customs border in the Irish Sea, which separates the Irish Isles from the British Isles. Such measures would in practice keep much of Northern Ireland’s economy under EU legal control, something that Theresa May has said is intolerable. One senior EU official said: <QUOTE>"The political declaration cannot violate our principles. But with the rest, whatever helps pass a withdrawal bill is fine. You can talk about many things because the backstop is the insurance if all these nice perspectives don't work out."<END QUOTE> Besides the backstop, the UK will have to pay the "divorce bill," estimated to be around 39 billion pounds ($50 billion). Other things, like the complex trading rules, the "common EU-UK rulebook," and court jurisdiction would be left as vague as possible, to be negotiated in the transition period following formal Brexit. And that's what we used to call "kicking the can down the road." Evening Standard (UK) and Politics (UK) and FT and UK Government Brexit White Paper (PDF, 13-July) **** **** Opposition grows to the 'fudge' proposal **** Almost as soon as the report emerged that EU officials might accept a "fudge" of Theresa May's Chequers proposal, opposition grew in both the UK and the EU. Foreign minister Boris Johnson, a strong Brexiteer, considered the Chequers proposal to be the worst of all worlds. In his resignation letter to Theresa May last month, Johnson wrote the following: <QUOTE>"The British government has spent decades arguing against this or that EU directive, on the grounds that it was too burdensome or ill-thought out. We are now in the ludicrous position of asserting that we must accept huge amounts of precisely such EU law, without changing an iota, because it is essential for our economic health - and when we no longer have any ability to influence these laws as they are made."<END QUOTE> Although Johnson is a strong member of the Brexit Leave camp, people in the Remain camp, who never wanted Brexit in the first place, agree with Johnson's opinion of the Chequers proposals. The Remain camp is now calling it the "blind Brexit." According to Chris Leslie, an MP in the Remain camp: <QUOTE>"A blind Brexit would take the UK to the same place as a no-deal Brexit, but without the clarity. The idea that the fundamental contradictions of the government’s Brexit policy can be more easily resolved after the UK has left the EU is simply ludicrous. A blind Brexit is being talked about because some see it as a short-term face-saving deal for both the British government and the European Union, both of which are now terrified that concluding with a failure to agree a deal will result in a humiliating no-deal Brexit. With the EU27 governments and the EU commission wanting to spare Theresa May’s blushes, there is a risk we end up with a fake deal to save face."<END QUOTE> Leslie's statement is that it's ludicrous to think that issues that can't be resolved before Brexit, will be more easily resolved after Brexit is true, but he misses the point. The whole point of a "fudge" is to "kick the can down the road," and if that can keep happening over and over, then the issues will never be resolved, and will never have to be resolved. Readers may recall what happened with Greece's financial crisis. The EU and Greece would have a major crisis meeting every few months, usually running all night, and they would announce a "fudge," a way to postpone the crisis till the next meeting. The problems with Greece's unsustainable debt were never resolved -- it's still unsustainable. But they've found a way to kick the can down the road indefinitely. So that's the idea behind the Brexit fudge. Leslie is right that there will be no agreement during the transition period, but if the politicians are clever enough, no agreement will every have to be reached, and every problem will be postponed. As the Peanuts character Charlie Brown used to say, no problem is so big that it can't be run away from. The Remain camp is now calling itself "The People's Vote" because it's focused on a second Brexit referendum on leaving the EU. People in the Leave camp would never agree to that, but as I understand it, even if everyone did agree, a referendum takes a long time to set up, and so it's impossible before the March 29 Brexit deadline. For that reason, the Remain camp is seeking out its own fudge. They're trying to convince EU leaders, especially from Germany and France, to agree to a postponement of the March 29 day to give enough time for a second referendum. Guardian (London) and Daily Mail (London) Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ireland, Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU, UK, Theresa May, Chequers, David Davis, Boris Johnson, Hard Brexit, Blind Brexit, Chris Leslie, People's Vote, fudge Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 3-Aug-18 World View -- DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola just as the previous outbre - John J. Xenakis - 08-02-2018 *** 3-Aug-18 World View -- DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola just as the previous outbreak ends This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** DR Congo's last Ebola outbreak officially ended on July 24 **** Camps for displaced people, North Kivu province, DR Congo (UN) As we reported in May, there was a potentially explosive outbreak of Ebola in the city of Mbandaka, a large heavily populated urban city of about 1.2 million people in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where an outbreak could spread rapidly. Furthermore, Mbandaka is a port city on the Congo River, creating the potential of transmission along the Congo River to other cities and other countries. On July 24, the World Health Organization (WHO) was proud to announce that the outbreak had officially ended. The doctors who had been sent to the region had been extremely vigilant, and had been aggressively using "contact tracing" to prevent the virus from spreading. When an Ebola patient is identified, then all that person's contacts and contacts of contacts are tracked down, and are warned to remain indoors for an incubation period of 21 days. A vaccine had been developed, and suspected victims were treated with the vaccine, to prevent development of the full virus. Teams went to remote villages to vaccinate some 3300 people likely to have been exposed to Ebola. However, it's still not known whether the vaccine actually protected against infection, although it clearly boosted morale. On July 24, all known contacts had completed their 21 day isolation period, and there were no new cases. There had been 53 cases of Ebola, and 29 deaths. This was a striking contrast to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa from 2014 to 2016, sickening over 28,000 and killing over 11,310. Guardian (24-Jul) and Science Magazine (18-Jul) and World Health Organization (24-Jul) **** **** DR Congo has new outbreak of Ebola in North Kivu province **** The last outbreak of Ebola occurred in the far western region of Equateur province which is in in far western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Now the World Health Organization (WHO) is declaring a new outbreak. This one is in North Kivu province, in far eastern DRC, 2,500 km (1,500 miles) from the previous outbreak. The new outbreak has been spreading rapidly. Already, 20 people have been killed, including four health workers, and four other people have tested positive for the virus. There are three known strains of the Ebola virus -- the Zaire strain, the Sudan strain, and the Bundibugyo strain. The last outbreak was the Zaire strain, and the vaccine that had been developed was specific to that strain. Which of the three strains is in the new outbreak has not been identified, but the vaccine can be used only with the Zaire strain. A more dangerous problem, beyond the possible unavailability of a vaccine, is that that that North Kivu province is a war zone for a tribal civil war. Armed groups backed by government forces have been burning down and pillaging villages, torching houses, shutting down schools, hospitals and churches, forcefully recruiting young men, abducting and kidnapping innocent citizens, raping women and girls. This has already driven hundreds of thousands of refugees from North Kivu province of DRC into refugee camps in Uganda. ( "13-Feb-18 World View -- Thousands of DR Congo refugees pour into Uganda to escape tribal violence" ) The WHO has been rapidly transferring its people and assets from Equateur province, the site of the previous Ebola outbreak, to the site of current outbreak in North Kivu province. However, it remains to be seen how effective they'll be in this midst of an extremely violent tribal war situation. Guardian (London) and Reuters and World Health Organization Related Articles
**** **** Reasons for quick containment of last Ebola outbreak **** The Ebola outbreak that began in May and ended on July 24 was defeated by the WHO extremely quickly, much more quickly than in the past. There are several reasons for this:
The new outbreak, which takes place in the midst of a tribal civil war, may not be as easy to contain. And if it is, then the next big disease outbreak may be from an unknown pathogen that can't be contained with existing strategies. Vox Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, Ebola, Mbandaka, World Health Organization, WHO, Equateur province, North Kivu province, Zaire strain, Sudan strain, Bundibugyo strain Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 4-Aug-18 World View -- South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white- - John J. Xenakis - 08-03-2018 *** 4-Aug-18 World View -- South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Zimbabwe's post-election violence raises concerns about economy **** Zimbabwe Black Power Farm. Starting in 2000, Zimbabwe's government confiscated thousands of white-owned farms without compensation, leading to economic disaster. (AFP) Early Friday morning the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa the winner of Sunday's presidential election with 50.8% of the vote -- just enough to avoid a run-off against Chamisa, who received 44.3% of the vote. Chamisa declared the result fraudulent, and urged his supporters to hold peaceful protests, avoiding violence. However, a Chamisa press conference was broken up by government riot police. On Wednesday, the army opened live fire on protesters in the capital city Harare, killing six people. Whether or not the election was fraudulent, these and other acts of post-election violence by government security and military forces against protesters are raising concerns in the international community that Zimbabwe is not a stable country, and that therefore commercial investments in Zimbabwe are too risky. Mnangagwa repeatedly made it clear during the campaign that he wanted the election to be fair and free of controversy, specifically so that international investors would help boost Zimbabwe's collapsing economy. Zimbabwe's disastrous economy is blamed on tribal and racial violence by Mnangagwa's predecessor Robert Mugabe. Mugabe's Shona tribe conducted genocide against the hated Ndebele tribe, killing tens of thousands, and marginalizing them ever since. Then he conducted racial warfare starting in 2000 by confiscating hundreds of farms owned by white farmers, and turning them over to his Shona cronies who didn't know how to run a farm. A lot of the racist confiscation was performed through "land invasions," where a group of Shona tribesmen would invade a white-owned farm, throw the white farmers off the farm, and confiscated through force. The result was an economic disaster that changed Zimbabwe from the breadbasket of southern Africa into a basket case. The currency collapsed with an inflation rate over 231 million percent, as people were forced into starvation. Mugabe continued his "indigenization" program by confiscating commercial businesses and turned them over to Shona cronies who didn't know how to run businesses. During this year's election campaign, Mnangagwa actually acknowledged Mugabe's disastrous policies by attempting to woo white farmers with promises to return some of their land. Mnangagwa conceded that much of the land stolen from white farmers had been given to powerful politicians, soldiers or tribal leaders who knew little or nothing about farming: <QUOTE>"I know of some chiefs who have moved from one farm to another. Then they run it down. Then he leaves that farm and he is issued another one. He runs it down. That time is gone."<END QUOTE> However, that speech was given by a politician to wealthy Zimbabweans during election campaign. Why would anyone believe anything that a politician says during an election campaign? At his core, Mnangagwa is a Shona tribesman still at war with Ndebele tribesmen and whites. Now that Mnangagwa has been declared winner of the presidential election, he has to find a way to get international investors to invest in Zimbabwe. And this will have to be done with actions, not promises. Whether he can do that remains to be seen. Zimbabwe Mail and Deutsche Welle (7-Jul) **** **** South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms **** South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the governing African National Congress (ANC) political party, made a surprise announcement on Tuesday that the ANC would go ahead with aggressive plans to confiscate white-owned farms without compensation: <QUOTE>"The ANC reaffirms its position that the Constitution is a mandate for radical transformation both of society and the economy. A proper reading of the Constitution on the property clause enables the state to effect expropriation of land with just and equitable compensation and also expropriation without compensation in the public interest. It has become patently clear that our people want the Constitution to be more explicit about expropriation of land without compensation, as demonstrated in the public hearings. ... Accordingly, the ANC will, through the parliamentary process, finalize a proposed amendment to the Constitution that outlines more clearly the conditions under which expropriation of land without compensation can be effected. The intention of this proposed amendment is to promote redress, advance economic development, increase agricultural production and food security."<END QUOTE> Blacks claim that farmland was owned by whites during the apartheid era, but since South Africa achieved independence in 1994, blacks own very little farmland, while whites own massively more. In 1994, the ANC promised to expropriate 30% of the white-owned farms "with just and equitable compensation," as provided for in the constitution, and redistribute that land to black farmers. However, 25 years later, the government has acquired only 7.9% of the white-owned farms, and even those have mostly not been redistributed to blacks. Therefore, there have increasingly belligerent demands within the ANC to take action to confiscate white-owned farms. Furthermore, rather than have the ANC provide "just and equitable compensations," the new constitutional amendment will permit confiscation with no compensation whatsoever. This is exactly the policy that Zimbabwe followed, and in fact confiscation with no compensation opens the way to the same kinds of "land invasions," where blacks invade a white-owned farm and through the white farmer out. The result that the value of the South African rand currency has been falling sharply since Ramaphosa's announcement. Ramaphosa, of course, is just another ordinary politician making a campaign promise in advance of next year's election. Ramaphosa made the completely empty promise to "advance economic development, increase agricultural production and food security," even though he has absolutely no clue how to do that and, in fact, the Zimbabwe experiences indicates that the outcome will be disastrous. The ANC have been forming committees and holding meetings for over a year on the question land confiscation without compensation, but they still haven't even come up with a description of how the land confiscation would work. Questions that they've been unable or unwilling to answer include the following:
Even under the most benign circumstances, why would a black farmer with no experience as a farmer do anywhere near as well as a white farmer who has been farming for decades? He won't. Zimbabwe used to produce enough food to feed itself, and export the rest. After Robert Mugabe's farm confiscation program, Zimbabwe was forced to import food, and Zimbabwe was saved by food from South African farms. After South Africa's farm confiscation program is put into effect, who's going to save South Africa? News24 (South Africa) and CNBC and News24 and Eyewitness News (South Africa) and The South African and News24 Related Stories
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, Nelson Chamisa, Shona, Ndebele, South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa, African National Congress, ANC Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 5-Aug-18 World View -- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting - John J. Xenakis - 08-04-2018 *** 5-Aug-18 World View -- China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting **** Donald Trump meets Vietnam's leader Tran Dai Quang in Hanoi last year (Reuters) Neither China nor the United States is a member of the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), but both had representatives present, and their competing strategies were the main subjects of discussion. ASEAN has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. For lexicographers and cartographers, the main news is that Western nations, including Australia and the US, have given a new name to their strategies, referring to the "Indo-Pacific strategy" instead of the old name, "Asia-Pacific strategy." US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had earlier discussed a plan to invest $113 million in technology, energy and infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific region. On Saturday he added: <QUOTE>"As part of our commitment to advancing regional security in the Indo-Pacific, the United States is excited to announce nearly $300 million in new funding to reinforce security cooperation throughout the entire region."<END QUOTE> The reason for the change in terminology is to emphasize that the Pacific Ocean and the India Ocean form a combined strategic region. However, the terminology change is annoying to the Chinese, who prefer the China-centric name "Asia-Pacific," while the name "Indo-Pacific" gives more emphasis to China's historic enemy, India. Chinese media were bitterly scathing in their response to Pompeo's announcements: <QUOTE>"What is the Indo-Pacific strategy? Many complain about its vagueness. Its most innovative part may be the name itself. Washington probably hopes the rest of the world would stop asking questions, tacitly understand Washington's intentions and firmly gather around the US after a few exchanges of glances and together begin to counter China's rising influence.... ASEAN members are not sure what the US Indo-Pacific strategy entails. The US announced only an investment of $113 million, which also includes India. The amount seems only sufficient to build an overpass perhaps in the center of Mumbai. Washington is using a strategic gimmick. It is insincere about pushing forward economic prosperity of Indo-Pacific region.... As a concept, Indo-Pacific strategy generated some media and psychological impact. But this is perhaps the only points it can score. If the US wants more, this strategy will be the abyss that consumes much US resources and its output can hardly match its input. What's more important, this is not the era where geopolitics rules all. The US has treated China's Belt and Road initiative, which focuses on mutually beneficial cooperation, as strategic expansion, and is trying to prohibit Asia from marching forward through connectivity. Washington's move is against historic tide. Even if it plans to invest 100 times its current amount, the investment will be devoured by the historic trend."<END QUOTE> The commentary mentions China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), where China has committed $900 billion (with a "b") to Asian countries, in contrast to America's "paltry" commitment of $133 million (with an "m"). Reuters and Global Times (Beijing) and Asia Times and ASEAN **** **** Concerns grow over China's debt strategy for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) **** Many ASEAN countries were disappointed at the lack of specifics in Pompeo's promise that "The United States will continue to create the conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific." However, many of these countries are quite concerned about the numerous problems associated with BRI, including corruption scandals and concerns about opaque financing, delays and mounting debt problems linked to the loans Beijing has provided to its partner countries. In the past couple of years, we've seen how these projects work, in countries like Sri Lanka, Kenya, Djibouti, Malaysia and Pakistan:
Malaysia has suspended a $14 billion rail line because of graft and corruption. Pakistan cancelled a $14 billion dam project last year because of excessive debts. Kenya accused China of "neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination." Other countries are extremely anxious about Chinese investments. The US offer of $113 million plus $300 million is paltry compared to China's offer, but the US offer is aid, not a loan, and it's the local workers who will build the infrastructure project. That's why, when announcing these aid packages, Pompeo emphasized "partnership, not domination" in Asia, and promised to "create the conditions for mutual prosperity in a free and open Indo-Pacific." Nikkei and Malay Mail and Washington Examiner Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, ASEAN, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, India, Mike Pompeo, Sri Lanka, Kenya, Djibouti, Malaysia, Pakistan Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 6-Aug-18 World View -- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe North Korea strategy, as - John J. Xenakis - 08-05-2018 *** 6-Aug-18 World View -- John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe North Korea strategy, as sanctions are violated This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** UN report: North Korea nuclear and missile development continues **** North Korea foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the Trump administration for refusing to lift sanctions (AFP) A confidential report to the United Nations Security Council says that during the last six months, not only has North Korea not stopped development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles but, even worse, North Korea is stepping up plans to sell weapons to other countries, including to the Houthis in Yemen. Now when we talk about the war in Yemen, instead of the "Iran-backed Houthis," we can refer to the "Iran-backed and North Korea backed Houthis." According to the report: <QUOTE>"[North Korea] has not stopped its nuclear and missile programs and continued to defy Security Council resolutions through a massive increase in illicit ship-to-ship transfers of petroleum products, as well as through transfers of coal at sea during 2018."<END QUOTE> North Korea also violated a textile ban by exporting more than $100 million in goods to China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey and Uruguay within the same time period. North Korea has also offered "a range of conventional arms, and in some cases ballistic missiles to armed groups in Yemen and Libya," and particularly to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. There is no report on whether the sales were actually made. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking at the ASEAN conference, said in response to the reports: <QUOTE>"If these reports prove accurate, and we have every reason to believe that they are, that would be in violation. I want to remind every nation that has supported these resolutions that this is a serious issue and something we will discuss with Moscow. [The US expects] all countries to abide to the UN Security Council resolutions and enforce sanctions on North Korea. Any violation that detracts from the world's goal of finally, fully denuclearizing North Korea would be something that America would take very seriously."<END QUOTE> Pompeo did not specify what action or retaliation the US would take against every country violating the sanctions, but there have been widespread reports of violations by several countries, and no action has been taken. In particular, Russia has been accused of bringing in thousands of North Korean "guest workers," who act as virtual slaves, and whose salaries are sent back to the North Korean regime. However, Pompeo's remarks were met with sharp rebukes by the representative of North Korea, Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, who said that Washington was "raising its voice louder" in anger, despite goodwill me North Korea's foreign minister Ri Yong Ho slammed the United States for insisting on sanctions, and prioritizing them higher than "confidence-building," which apparently refers to removing sanctions: <QUOTE>"Confidence is not a sentiment to be cultivated overnight. In order to build full confidence between the DPRK [North Korea] and the US, it is essential for both sides to take simultaneous actions and phased steps to do what is possible one after another."<END QUOTE> He said that North Korea had done its part with goodwill measures such as the moratorium on nuclear testing and the dismantling of a nuclear site. But instead of reciprocating these goodwill measures, he accused the US of "raising its voice louder" for maintaining sanctions against North Korea, and was "showing the attitude to retreat even from declaring the end of war, a very basic and primary step for providing peace on the Korean peninsula." Declaring an end to the Korean War, which is still theoretically in progress, though under a ceasefire, would require removing American troops from South Korea, a key objective of North Korea. It would also require removing the THAAD missile defense system, a key objective of China. Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Straits Times **** **** John Bolton and Marco Rubio describe administration's North Korea strategy **** As I've written many times, everything that the Trump administration has done in foreign policy since Donald Trump took office makes complete sense to me, which is in contrast to Obama's foreign policy, which never made sense. The reason that Trump's foreign policy makes sense is because everything he does is consistent with the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for years. Trump understands these analyses because he was educated by his former principal advisor Steve Bannon, whom I've worked with for years, and who is an expert on both military history and Generational Dynamics. It's worth mentioning this because the mainstream press and mainstream analysts are always completely and totally baffled by the administration's foreign policy, even though it is consistent and makes complete sense, provided you focus on actions, not PR tweets. On Sunday, responding to questions about the UN report, national security adviser John Bolton and Senator Marco Rubio described the administration strategy toward North Korea at the present time. As I've been writing for many months, based on Generational Dynamics analyses, is that there is no chance whatsoever that North Korea will give up its nuclear development program now or in the future, after having tortured, starved and brutalized their own population for three decades, under the promise that one day North Korea would be a nuclear power on a peer with the United States. North Korea has one and only one objective in the charm offensive since the beginning of the year and in Kim's summit meetings with Trump and South Korean leaders: To get the US-led sanctions lifted without having to give up its development of nuclear missiles targeting the United States. Saturday's statements by North Korea's foreign minister harshly criticizing the US for not reciprocating North Korea's "goodwill measures" and instead demanding that sanctions be continued is in line with this objective. During John Bolton's interview on Sunday, he said the following: <QUOTE>"As I've said to you and others before, there's nobody in his administration starry eyed about the prospects of North Korea actually denuclearizing. But I think what's going on now is that the president is giving Kim Jong-un on a master class on how to hold a door open for somebody. And if the North Koreans can't figure out how to walk through it, even the president's fiercest critics will not be able to say it's because he didn't open it wide enough. We are going to have to see a performance from the North Koreans. There's no question about it."<END QUOTE> This is a very interesting statement, and reflects a strategy that I haven't heard previously from the administration. As I've suggested in the past, North Korea will continue nuclear missile development no matter what the Trump administration does, and since it doesn't make any different what action is taken, the administration should choose actions that when the inevitable nuclear confrontation happens, the North Koreans and the Chinese will be blamed for it, not the United States. This is crucial from the point of view of historians ten or twenty years from now, looking back and saying that it was North Korea, not the United States, that was to blame for what happened. Bolton's remarks on Trump giving "a master class on how to hold a door open for somebody" are exactly in line with that objective. Senator Marco Rubio, who is on the Senate and Intelligence and Foreign Relations Committees, was also interviewed on Fox News, and gave additional strategic information: <QUOTE>"Well, I'm about to tell you I hope I'm wrong about, but I do not believe that he is ever going to give up his nuclear arsenal. What I do believe he will do is a series of unilateral concessions that do not undermine his capabilities in the long term. For example, I think he's more than willing to tear apart facilities that are no longer necessary for old missiles because he's got newer ones that work better. I believe he has undisclosed sites that he thinks he can shield from the world. I believe that he believes that even if he gets rid of some of the new enrichment capabilities, he already has existing weapons and existing enriched capabilities that he can hide from the from the world. And every single time that he does one of these productions he is engendering goodwill internationally, which is ultimately his goal, to undermine international support for sanctions by arguing, "Look at all these things I'm doing, the Americans are not reciprocating," and undermining sanctions at the U.N. and internationally. That's his goal in my opinion."<END QUOTE> The interviewer Chris Wallace said: "Isn't Kim succeeding in lowering the temperature, breaking apart the alliance of sanctions, and isn't president Trump being played?" Rubio responded, "I don't know if the president is being played. I think he's hoping for the best but prepared for the worst. The sanctions remained in place. We haven't changed a single sanction on North Korea." Once again, this makes complete sense because it's consistent with the Generational Dynamics analyses that I've been posting for months. As I've said in the past, Trump can't prevent a world war, but I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to try to prevent a world war, even if doing so is impossible. One more related subject that the mainstream media is completely baffled about is the issue of Russia. I must hear reporters ask the same question a dozen times a day: Why is Trump so "nice" to Vladimir Putin and Russia, when he's not so "nice" to China and in fact is conducting a trade war? Once again, this makes perfect sense, as I've been describing for years. Russia will be our ally in the coming world war, just as the Soviet Union was our ally in World War II, even though it was a bitter enemy before and after World War II. Generational Dynamics predicts that this bit of history will repeat itself, so of course it makes sense for Trump to be "nice" to Russia. This will be of help later. As for the trade war against China, this is a dangerous game. An American oil embargo against Japan in 1941 led to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor several months later, and this trade war might trigger a similar response from China today. In a sense it doesn't make any difference, since China has been arming itself militarily to pre-emptively attack the United States at a time of its choosing, so the trade war might force China to move up the attack to a time when it will not be as well prepared. However, there's no question that this is a dangerous move. As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Fox News Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea, John Bolton, Marco Rubio, Steve Bannon, China, Russia, Mike Pompeo, Yemen, Houthi, Iran, Ghana, India, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Turkey, Uruguay, Russia, Ri Yong Ho, Kim Jong-un, Chris Wallace Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - pbrower2a - 08-06-2018 Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no enforcement. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2018 (08-06-2018, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no In the fantasy where denuclearization goes ahead, there are UN IAEA inspectors going to all North Korean nuclear and missile development sites, to verify that NK isn't cheating. Just reading over that last sentence, anyone who knows anything about NK knows how preposterous it is. It's all fantasy. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-06-2018 (08-06-2018, 11:53 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(08-06-2018, 11:10 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Did anyone think that this unilateral deal would work? There is no enforcement. The real question: why did anyone take this even a little seriously? Have we entered the era of the post-serious Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2018 (08-06-2018, 02:33 PM)David Horn Wrote: > The real question: why did anyone take this even a little Yeah, a lot of leftist loons have been openly hoping that the nuclear negotiations would fail, so that it could be chalked up as a Trump failure. Never mind that it could mean war with North Korea -- to these idiots, war, nuclear fallout, starvation, etc. and anything else is preferable to Trump. It's like that idiot Bill Maher declaring that he wants a major recession to occur, so that Trump will be blamed. The left-wing racist pigs have been particularly out in force with regard to the unemployment rate for blacks being the lowest in history. These left-wing racist pigs in the Democratic party would rather that the uppity blacks remain in the slaves' quarters rather than be employed and earn enough money to get homes of their own, since then they might vote for Republicans. Better to keep them in slaves' quarters, where they'll vote for Democrats. Getting back to Korea, a lot of people on the right might agree with you. Instead of negotiating with North Korea, they would have preferred right at the beginning military action, targeting the nuclear and missile development sites. I guess that's your position too. Lovely. Anything's better than Trump. Right? 7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's C - John J. Xenakis - 08-06-2018 *** 7-Aug-18 World View -- Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Pakistan elects anti-American far right religious Imran Khan to be prime minister **** Imran Khan (Getty) Imran Khan, who will be taking the oath of office as prime minister of Pakistan in a few days, as his political party, Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) (Movement for Justice), seems poised to form a governing coalition, following the July 25 national elections. Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, is extremely popular and charismatic. He was one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time. In the 1990s, he was voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by the Australia Magazine Oz. Khan's views are strongly Islamist, closely associated with Pakistan's religious far right, even to the point of supporting Pakistan's draconian blasphemy law which allows any Pakistani citizen to kill another person with impunity, provided that he first accuses the person he's going to kill of blasphemy. He's anti-American, has promised to distance Pakistan from the United States, has condemned NATO airstrikes on terrorists in Pakistan, and has promised to resolve the Kashmir issue with India in Pakistan's favor. This could be important when the army and intelligence services ask for a favor in return for helping to get him elected. The News (Pakistan) and Washington Post **** **** Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC **** Like all politicians, Khan made plenty of campaign promises that he won't be able to fulfill. He promised to create an "Islamic welfare state," with big public spending on health and education. In fact, his campaign speeches were totally delusional. Imran Khan will not have much time to celebrate his victory, as Pakistan is so short of foreign reserves that it could be forced into bankruptcy within a month, and his "Islamic welfare state" is just a distant dream. Pakistan and China like to say that they're "all-weather friends," but the reason for Pakistan's enormous mountain of debt is the $52 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which China has been using to force a number of countries into a debt trap. The goal of the CPEC is to connect China's western Xinjiang province to the Gwadar port in southern Pakistan by means of a collection of highways and railways. The project is to be completed by 2030. We've described a number of these projects in the past, and they have common elements. China lends tens of billions of dollars to a country to build an infrastructure project. China supplies thousands of workers and their families to do the building. Chinese companies are used to provide equipment and supplies. The country must pay for all these Chinese workers and equipment with money from the loan, which means that most of the money gets sent back to China. The country must still repay the loan, which means that it's paying China twice for the same loan. And the country is left for decades with a large Chinese community of workers and families controled by Beijing's international coercive propaganda agency, the "United Front Work Department" (UFWD). Pakistan has been borrowing money "like crazy" for the last five years. Imports for energy, machinery, transport equipment and metals have skyrocketed because of CPEC and because of rising oil prices. Meanwhile exports, mainly textiles, have increased only slightly. As a result, the country's foreign currency reserves have declined to about $10.3 billion, enough to cover less than two months of imports. If Pakistan cannot pay for imports, then the entire CPEC project would be in danger. In June, China granted an emergency loan to Pakistan for $1 billion to cover payments for imports till the end of August. According to one analyst, Pakistan was unable to turn to Saudi Arabia for a loan because Pakistan had refused in 2016 to join the Saudi-led coalition waging a war in Yemen. So Pakistan has been forced to turn to its all-weather friend China for one loan after another. This has alarmed even some Pakistani officials, because the country has become so dependent on China. In the past, China has borrowed from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for emergency funds, and wants to do so again. But there are several issues:
As a private citizen, Imran Khan has criticized the IMF in the past, and has criticized Pakistan's government for borrowing from the IMF. Now that he's going to be prime minister, he may have to change his tune. Dawn (Pakistan) and AFP and Dawn and South China Morning Post and Al Jazeera Related Articles:
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Imran Khan, Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, Movement for Justice, China, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Xinjiang, Gwadar port, United Front Work Department, UFWD. International Monetary Fund, IMF, Saudi Arabia, Yemen Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - David Horn - 08-07-2018 (08-06-2018, 02:57 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(08-06-2018, 02:33 PM)David Horn Wrote: The real question: why did anyone take this even a little seriously? Have we entered the era of the post-serious Presidency, where entertainment value trumps all? First: U3 is low, but workforce penetration is abysmal. Chalk that up to the gig economy, and the way we measure unemployment. The GOP hasn't presided over higher employment, higher wages or improved working conditions. Quite to the contrary. So the U3 numbers aren't fake news, but they are mostly irrelevant. Second: Kissy-Huggy in Singapore is far from a successful negotiation or even a modest breakthrough. You, of all people, should know that. |