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+---- Thread: Election Turnout by Generations (/thread-5253.html)
Election Turnout by Generations - jleagans - 11-15-2018
I was tired of hearing everyone attacking Millennial non-voting as if it was some anomaly and broke out the numbers, national election by national election. I had to tweak the timings a little bit on the generational starts to make sure each election captured the exact same ages for each generation. This put the start years at:
Boomers-1944
Gen X-1964
Millennials-1984
Results:
Millennials and Boomers started off about the same, then Millennials DID comparatively dip in the midterms (though that is offset in 2010 by an overall turnout dip that explains the difference). The 2016 election, however, was the first-time Millennials turned out at a higher rate than the other generations and based on 2018 it looks likely for that trend to be expanding. Millennials as a civic generation that will rebuild community is now CORROBORATED by voting turnout and not refuted by it.
[attachment=40]
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - Eric the Green - 11-15-2018
Well, in 2014 millennial turnout was less than one in five, according to Obama. Youth turnout was better in 2018, for sure, but still low in some places in CA where less was at stake. I hope the trend continues though.
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - Marypoza - 11-15-2018
I know this is only 1 precinct, but last week my precinct was swarming with Millies.
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - jleagans - 11-15-2018
My post has the excel doc if you want the original numbers to mess around with. Here's a screenshot of the results.
[attachment=41]
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - pbrower2a - 11-15-2018
Preliminary results from ABC exit polls suggest that voters ages 18 to 29 will make up 13 percent of the overall electorate in this year’s midterms, up from 11 percent in 2014. While early voting across every age group increased compared with the 2014 midterms, the surge is most pronounced among voters ages 18 to 29. More than 3.3 million voters from that group cast their votes early. That’s a 188 percent increase from 2014, according to data from TargetSmart, a political-data-analysis firm.
....
The spike in youth turnout in several key battleground states is particularly striking. In Texas, where young voters have rallied behind the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, early voting increased fivefold for voters ages 18 to 29, according to The Hill. It’s the same story in Nevada, where there’s another hotly contested Senate race: Five times as many young voters turned out early in 2018 as they did in 2014.
The spike in youth turnout in several key battleground states is particularly striking. In Texas, where young voters have rallied behind the Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke, early voting increased fivefold for voters ages 18 to 29, according to The Hill. It’s the same story in Nevada, where there’s another hotly contested Senate race: Five times as many young voters turned out early in 2018 as they did in 2014.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/youth-turnout-midterm-2018/575092/
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - pbrower2a - 11-15-2018
It looks as if the Millennial generation has begun to vote as it never has before. Figuring that this signals a change in behavior and no temporary blip, this bodes ill for any political tendencies that turn them off. They have always been to the Left of other generations except perhaps the GI Generation at any time, and I do not expect this to change quickly. The current Republican Party is severely out of touch with them, and this will get worse until it changes its agenda. The Religious Right and Tea Party factions of the GOP switched quickly to Trump, and it is unlikely to switch back to anything more pleasing to the Millennial Generation.
The Howe and Strauss theory has expected the Millennial generation to be extremely rational, secular, cohesive, and egalitarian, and the Millennial generation has shown such. Donald Trump is the antithesis of such. If the rest of America is nearly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, then the Millennial generation can be expected to force electoral politics away from the current manifestation of conservatism.
RE: Election Turnout by Generations - pbrower2a - 12-21-2020
I want to revive this so that we can discuss the generational mix of 2020. I see 2020 as basically a status-quo election except for the Presidency, with Donald Trump doing worse by roughly the margin of 1.6%, a crude guess that I have based on the replacement of Silent, Boom, and X voters over 55 dying off or succumbing to debility, with Millennial voters under 40 largely supplanting them. Voters over 50 (which will be relevant to 2024 because they will be 54 or older in 2024) will be, like voters 55+ in 2020, about 5% more R than D while voters under 40 (which will include Homeland voters to a significant extent) will be about 20% more D than R.