(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: There have been many Nomad generations in the past. Earlier ones at least had a kinda happy ending, spending their old age in a High. (Unless they were so unlucky to witness the new "Awakening", where the idiocy and hypocrisy started which wrecked their childhood once. Like that one Lost scholar who studied cycles mentioned.)

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

(02-07-2019, 10:07 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The whole cycle seems out of rhythm anyway. Like the Civil War anomaly, but this time with five generations at the same time.

(02-07-2019, 09:22 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

I assume you mean millennials.

If the millennial elite treats S-H theory seriously, they could do something to suppress the Awakening. Perhaps they will raise their kids in the 2030s the way they were reared in the 1990s and 2000s. Perhaps they will use advanced techniques of propaganda to discourage a "romantic rebel" attitude when the time for Awakening comes.

Such a scenario has interesting consequences. If the Awakening is suppressed the new cycle will be a shorter one. New Crisis and new Civic generation will arrive in the 2060s, when some millennials will still be active. There could be a strong bond between the millennials and neo-millennials, together they could see the triumph of a civic order they couldn't achieve in the 2010s.

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

(02-07-2019, 02:11 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society.  Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon.  Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

(02-07-2019, 02:11 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society.  Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon.  Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

(02-07-2019, 01:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: By far, not enough millennials today have any idea about generations and turnings cycle. It is a cult following that exists mostly on a few forums like this. Such a meager awareness will not be able to shift or eliminate any turnings, even assuming they could all agree to change their parenting style from what would seem natural to them, given their own overly-helicoptered upbringing.

(02-08-2019, 08:45 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The oldest Millennials are >35 already. Soon, they'll be too old to be a footsoldier in any war, period. No, I stand by my opinion that rich old people (*cough* Silents *cough*) use their influence to do lobbyism, and that's why we don't have a proper Crisis. Trump would love to lead like FDR - but they don't let him. They know well enough how much they'd lose if a government took action, so they preserve the status quo, no matter if it suffocates the country and the people.

I don't understand BTW how Strauss & Howe could live in DC and never mention a topic like lobbyism. After all, the puppetmasters are more important than the puppets.

(02-08-2019, 08:38 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 02:11 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.

How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.

I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society.  Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon.  Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.

Despite all the talk about superfast rate of change, I wouldn't call the 2010s a revolutionary decade. The main cultural changes are acceptance of homosexuality and marijuana, things that were happening since the 1960s. Technology means mostly proliferation of computers (everybody has a PC, but this has been the case since the 1990s) and social media (this happened in 2006-9). Space flight and energy sources are stuck in the 1960s.

(02-08-2019, 12:53 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-08-2019, 08:45 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: The oldest Millennials are >35 already. Soon, they'll be too old to be a footsoldier in any war, period. No, I stand by my opinion that rich old people (*cough* Silents *cough*) use their influence to do lobbyism, and that's why we don't have a proper Crisis. Trump would love to lead like FDR - but they don't let him. They know well enough how much they'd lose if a government took action, so they preserve the status quo, no matter if it suffocates the country and the people.

I don't understand BTW how Strauss & Howe could live in DC and never mention a topic like lobbyism. After all, the puppetmasters are more important than the puppets.

That's a good point. I imagine the youngest millennials, by S&H dating and not Pew demographic dating, will be in their early 20s when the war comes, if it comes, so they can be footsoldiers like the youngest GIs and even Silent/GI cuspers were in world war two. But the Silents like the Koch Brothers and others are still pulling the lobby and money strings and keeping congress and presidents shackled. Not that I have any faith in Trump, but the forces of obstruction do pull on him.

Quote:This may not be anything new for a 4T; the Compromise Generation, at least as S&H defined it (extending through 1780s cohorts, maybe too far), were at the helm in the 1850s, which was actually the early 4T like our times, restraining any real move to restrict or eliminate slavery and keeping southern planters' interests uppermost with the Fugitive Slave Act and the Dred Scott Decision. Only in the later 4T (the 1860s) was this Adaptive Generation rule broken, at the cost of civil war that time.

Quote:In the 2020s, the dam will break again, though not without conflict and resistance of some kind. One more election and the dam could get real shaky, and the elections of 2022 and 2024 will break it down. The right-wing will still have the supreme court and possibly the senate, however (which over-represents rural red states), which may keep much resistance in place. The progressive and reform/revolution tides will be very strong though.

(02-09-2019, 01:49 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: You mentioned the Koch brothers as examples of the Silent elites maintaining influence -- but one of them, I understand, has terminal cancer. A generation has power until it has no successors in its midst.

(02-07-2019, 01:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(02-07-2019, 09:22 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:

(02-06-2019, 11:14 AM)Hintergrund Wrote: So - what should Yers do with their knowledge?

I assume you mean millennials.

If the millennial elite treats S-H theory seriously, they could do something to suppress the Awakening. Perhaps they will raise their kids in the 2030s the way they were reared in the 1990s and 2000s. Perhaps they will use advanced techniques of propaganda to discourage a "romantic rebel" attitude when the time for Awakening comes.

Such a scenario has interesting consequences. If the Awakening is suppressed the new cycle will be a shorter one. New Crisis and new Civic generation will arrive in the 2060s, when some millennials will still be active. There could be a strong bond between the millennials and neo-millennials, together they could see the triumph of a civic order they couldn't achieve in the 2010s.

No-one should have expected the millennials to achieve a new civic order in the 2010s. A civic generation in early youth does not achieve a civic order; they probably don't even go to war yet. Whatever civic order achieved by ALL the generations alive in our 4T, will be achieved in the 2020s. The 2010s are 1850s redux: failed attempts at compromise, increasing polarization, lack of leadership, racial/identity clashes, a bad supreme court, etc. We are at best only up to about 1854.

By far, not enough millennials today have any idea about generations and turnings cycle. It is a cult following that exists mostly on a few forums like this. Such a meager awareness will not be able to shift or eliminate any turnings, even assuming they could all agree to change their parenting style from what would seem natural to them, given their own overly-helicoptered upbringing.

Quote:That's not where I see the change occurring, frankly.  I see change at the foundational level, where baseline assumptions are changing without leaving much of a trace.  A lot of what is now hyper-PC would have been laughable just 20 years ago, yet it's now driving the discussions we have about values.  Let's take the mess in my state of Virginia.  Initially, it was blackface that was the unforgivable sin, and still may be in the end.  Never mind that sexual assault is a class 1 felony, and should have been the more important of the two issues.  It was only the emergence of a second accuser that the roles reversed.  Now, add in the presumption of innocence, and the discussion goes right off the tracks.

Prior to the Clintons, these issues would have been page 4 below the fold (maybe not the rape accusation, but blackface certainly).  The resolutions would have been negotiated behind the scenes, and some general kumbaya statement issued by <insert the moral authority of your choice>.  I'm not arguing that this is either better or worse, just the reality of today versus a short 2 or 3 decades ago.

(03-28-2019, 05:33 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote: I wasn't overly helicoptered as a kid and I had a lot of freedom and people to play with but what I wondered was that if the Boomer elites had a conspiracy to form all Millennials into the same borg. I think it's why kids were put on meds so early or why freedom was stomped down. Also why wouldn't the reaction to being helicoptered be wanting more freedom as a rebellion? I think ADHD meds and the psychiatric industry was a conspiracy to make everyone the same as children. Why did Boomers claim to value freedom and individuality but not want this for their kids? My parents fought back against the system and demanded they do things their way. I was never put on meds because of their fighting spirit.