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RE: Why does the Fourth Turning seem to take Forever? - Eric the Green - 01-16-2020
(01-15-2020, 01:07 PM)Anthony Wrote: It is the Third Turning that is being very slow and dragged out (if anything, the Culture Wars have intensified since 1984-2001) - and whoever loses the November election will start the 4T, which will be brief but brutal.
Indeed it will be a redux of the Civil War anomaly - including a second Civil War itself, to the 10,000th power, with the left openly collaborating with Iran etc., and Trump, if he gets re-elected, neutron-bombing cities like Detroit and Baltimore (the neutron bomb kills people but does not damage property).
The 3rd Turning was longer than the other turnings, but it ended in 2008, or earlier by some accounts.
The culture wars dominated the 2004 election, in which the main issues were gay marriage, abortion and Monica Lewinsky, according to observers. The war was the key issue on the left, but it didn't carry the day.
In 2008 real issues dominated the campaign. The culture war largely ended. Gay marriage, marijuana, and other culture war issues are over. The cultural divide still exists, and contributes to our great divide overall. Those differences don't go away easily. In a sense, they are probably much the same now, and involving the same regions, as they were in 1920. They just don't predominate our current turning, which is 4T. We be 4T.
The 4T will intensify in the 2020s, no doubt. It will not be brief. It will end in 2028-29. It must end then because the cosmic schedule decrees it. A 2T must begin in 2046-47. Just as it did in 1964, and for the same cosmic reason.
The Left will not be openly cooperating with Iran. That is silly. The Left agrees Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. The current US tangle with Iran depends entirely on the 2020 election. If Trump wins, it will continue; if Sanders or Biden wins, it will not. Trump pulled out of the great Iran deal for no reason. A democrat will reinstate it and that will be that. Regardless, Trump will not start a full-scale war with Iran. Bet on it.
I think the progressive bent of the 2020s indicates that the Democrats have a chance to win big in 2020, 2022 and 2024. But specifically who wins the presidency will depend on the horoscope scores of the candidates, and this puts the 2020 victory in jeopardy. The Lichtman Keys also favor Trump as of now.
A civil war may happen, but it will be smaller (not bigger to the 10,000th power) than the last one. It will likely be a right-wing rebellion by gun-toting racists and tax haters, if the Left or Democrats win the presidential election and the congress in Nov. 2024, but this right-wing rebellion will be too small and disorganized to prevail.
The next president in Jan. 2021 will indeed face lots of turmoil, demonstrations and probably riots, no matter which side wins in Nov.2020. I am claiming that this upheaval will be temporary, although important, and whatever larger conflict happens will more-fully break out in circa 2025. The USA will face BOTH conflict at home and abroad at that time. Both conflicts will be smaller and more manageable than previous ones, according to what I see from the cosmic signs and all the cycles and signs of the times. I think the foreign conflict of 2025 may not be with Iran.
RE: Why does the Fourth Turning seem to take Forever? - Tim Randal Walker - 01-16-2020
I figured awhile back that it was too late for the Xers to become a sort of Gilded generation. Yes, it does seem a bit late for Millenials to become a hybrid generation.
During the Civil War the oldest Progressives were kid soldiers; the Gilded were fairly young-ish too.
RE: Why does the Fourth Turning seem to take Forever? - Anthony '58 - 01-19-2020
It's natural for a partisan to be an optimist, from his/her side's POV, Eric.
You should listen to Fox News, Newsmax, One America News Network, etc.: According to them, not only is Trump going to win by an all-time record-breaking landslide, but the Democratic candidate, whoever it is, will be lucky to finish ahead of the Libertarian candidate for second place - especially if the latter is a "sensible" candidate like Mitt Romney (who will be given the bum's rush from the GOP if he votes in favor of removing Trump from office) or John Kasich (who risks nothing because he is not a current office-holder - plus his union-busting credentials are right up the Libertarians' alley). Justin Amash is the logical Vice Presidential nominee for the Libertarians, or they could go with Collin Peterson, a co-sponsor of the UnFairTax, and who voted against impeachment in the House.
And the impending Civil War will be undeniably worse, if for no other reason than the fact that the fate of the entire nation will be at stake - not just one quarter of it as in the original Civil War - and once the war gets under way, the left will take the same "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" position that the Irish took in 1916, the Slovaks took in 1939, the Balts, Ukrainians, Croats, Bosnians, Albanians and Kosovars took in 1941, and the Sicilians took in 1943. Even if there is no direct collaboration, there will be terrorist bombings on a grand scale, since the left doesn't have anywhere near the same kind of firepower that the right has with their AR-15s, AK-47s, etc.