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"Climax" year of each turning - Ghost - 03-24-2020
I'm just going to take guesses, but please let me know what you think about this chart since 3T of the previous saeculum:
Great Power Saeculum (1865-1945)
3T (1908-1929): 1918 (Armistice day/End of WWI)
4T (1929-1945): 1933 (Hitler rising to power, worst year of the Great Depression)
Millennial Saeculum (1945-present)
1T (1945-1963): 1956? (peak of 50's pop culture)
2T (1963-1980): 1968 (MLK and RFK assassinations, "peak" year of Baby Boomer culture)
3T (1980-2008): 1989 (Berlin Wall falls, Tim Berners-Lee invents World Wide Web)
4T (2008-present): 2020 (WWIII scare, reactions to Brexit, coronavirus scare, hantavirus, possibly dramatic 2020 election)
I am most unsure about 1T and 2T for Millennial Saeculum.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Eric the Green - 03-24-2020
2T of 1964-1984 was 1967 or 1968.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Ghost - 03-25-2020
(03-24-2020, 11:39 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: 2T of 1964-1984 was 1967 or 1968.I think I really screwed up my 2T. That sounds right.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Drakus79 - 03-25-2020
Strauss and Howe broke the 4T into four phases:
1. Catalyst - Event that sparks the crisis. (ie Stock Market Crash of 1929)
2. Regeneracy - Call to Action and unity in response. (FDR's New Deal in the mid 1930s)
3. Climax - Darkest point of the crisis. (ie attack on Pearl Harbor 1941)
4. Resolution - Winners and losers are decided, and new institutions rise as the country is put on a new trajectory. But every solution creates a new problem, and the next cycle is all about addressing that new problem. (ie end of WWII - 1945)
I've changed my opinion on the catalyst to this crisis. I think it was indeed September 11 2001. The regeneracy happened soon after. We were united for a time, but the ensuing wars and the patriot act soon divided the country worse than before. The other mini-catalysts, ie Katrina, the 2008 financial crisis, Tea Party Movement, Occupy Wall street and Election 2016 did more to deepen the divide in the country and exacerbated the Crisis. But COVID-19 definitely marks the climax of this 4T. It's our WWII moment.
And going back to The Civil War Cycle, I disagree with where Strauss and Howe draw their boundaries. I have made whole video about this if you're interested, but to summarize, here's how I would divide up the Civil War Cycle:
1T - 1789-1807 - The Constitution is put into a Effect and George Washington becomes the first President. A new country is established and party lines are drawn between John Adams' more classically conservative "Federalist Party" and Thomas Jefferson's more classically liberal "Democratic-Republican Party".
2T - 1807-1828 - The Atlantic Slave Trade is banned, slavery ends in the North, and the US gains the midwestern territories. The War of 1812 results in the collapse of the Federalist Party and the "Era of Good Feelings" begins. Only one party, Jefferson's Democratic-Republican Party, is dominant for the rest of the turning.
3T - 1828-1848 - The Election of Andrew Jackson ends the "Era of Good Feelings". The Democratic-Republican Party splits into a more populist left wing Democrat Party and the more classically conservative Whig Party. Manifest Destiny, The Gold Rush and westward expansion results in The Mexican War and Sectionalism.
And I would break up the 4T (1848-1865) into these phases:
1. Catalyst - 1848. The Mexican War ends. The issue over whether new territories should be free states or slave states comes to the fore.
2. Regeneracy - 1850. Compromise of 1850 at first unites the country, but ultimately results in more division (sort of like what happened after our own regeneracy). The Whig Party Collapses in 1852, and the new anti-slavery Republican Party replaces it. The country is divided between southern pro-slave, and northern anti-slave lines even more than before.
3. Climax - 1860. Lincoln is elected and the Confederacy breaks away, resulting in the Civil War.
4. Resolution - 1865. The North wins the Civil War, Lincoln is assassinated and Reconstruction begins in the next 1st Turning.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Drakus79 - 03-25-2020
Here are my thoughts on this current “Cold War Cycle” (1945-Present). I agree with the first half of Strauss and Howe’s analysis. But would make some changes to the second half:
First Turning - 1945 - the USA and USSR emerge from WWII as the two dominant world powers. The Cold War begins. The Korean War breaks out and ends in an armistice. Keynesian Neoliberalism replaces Classical Liberalism and Progressivism in the Democratic Party as the world becomes more Globally connected. The UN, NATO and the IMF world bank is established as the world becomes more globally centralized. The Civil Rights Acts of the 50s and early 60s to end Jim Crowe and Segregation are put into effect and the Federal Government gains more power over the states.
Second Turning - 1964 - JFK is assassinated and the Cold War heats up with the Vietnam War. The peace movements quickly make the war unpopular. Neoconservatism (a more conservative, supply side flavor of Neoliberalism) begins to emerge and dominate in the Republican Party. The gold standard is officially abandoned and the classically liberal Libertarian Party forms to challenge the more dominant and interventionist Neoliberalism of both parties. Nixon resigns in shame as a result of Watergate, rapid stagflation ensues and the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976 is the last time The Democrats are able to win the southern states. A poor economy, his pessimistic malaise speech and mishandling of the Iran situation results in his loss to Reagan in 1980.
Third Turning - 1980 - Strauss and Howe start this turning with Reagan’s optimistic “Morning in America” campaign in 1984 that resulted his sweeping electoral victory. But I chose to move it back earlier to 1980 when he won his first term, since that’s when things really started to change. The economy soared for most of the 80s and 90s and the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other major communist power, China, adopted a more free market friendly economy, but never completely abandoned communism and totalitarianism. The Culture War heated up as the more traditional values of the right clashed with the more progressive values of the left. Universities, schools and the press became more left leaning. Immigration and Globalism increased as America became more reliant on other countries (especially China) for manufacturing.
Fourth Turning - 2001 - Strauss and Howe believe the current 4T started with the 2008 Financial Crisis, and I used to agree with them. But as time has passed it seems clear to me that it started on September 11th 2001. Here are the phases of this current Fourth Turning:
1. Catalyst - 2001 - The terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001 shocked the world and showed us that, just because the we “won” the cold war, we weren’t yet at peace.
2. Regeneracy - 2001 - The regeneracy for this catalyst was immediate as volunteers rushed in to save lives. Despite the growing culture war, the country came together with a new sense of patriotism. But over time, the unity collapsed as the war on Terror spread to Iraq and the Patriot Act was passed. Anti-war leftists and libertarians turned against the hyper-interventionist surveillance state. Events like Katrina in 2005, the financial meltdown of 2008, The Great Recession, The Tea Party Movement and Occupy Wall Street only served to further divide the country and exacerbated the crisis as the culture war raged worse than ever before. Like it did during the Civil War 4T, the regeneracy failed. The establishment and pro-war Neo-liberal and Neo-conservative factions of both parties became increasingly discredited in favor of an anti-war populism on both the left and right. Brexit and Trump’s election saw a rejection of globalism and a desire to secure borders and bring manufacturing back home. The economy made a massive recovery after 2016 and was booming during the first few years of Trump’s presidency. But Trump was a divisive figure who was hated by the Democrats and he was impeached in late 2019.
3. Climax - 2019 - The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan China in late November 2019. The disease spread rapidly and resulted in thousands of deaths. In the US, the politicians and press were distracted by the impeachment trial and were late to react. China was unable to contain the disease and it spread all over the world. By March 2020 governments all over the world mandated self quarantine, business lockdowns and social distancing. The economy, which was booming only a month earlier, collapsed and drastic measures were needed to be taken to save people from falling into poverty while still protecting the public from infection. Unfortunately we are still so divided that we can’t even come to an agreement on a simple stimulus bill. We have been divided so long and so badly that even a virus can easily conquer us. But I’m optimistic that we’ll get our act together before it’s too late.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Ghost - 03-26-2020
(03-25-2020, 07:45 PM)Drakus79 Wrote: Here are my thoughts on this current “Cold War Cycle” (1945-Present). I agree with the first half of Strauss and Howe’s analysis. But would make some changes to the second half:I'd change the climax to 2020 because that was when WWIII memes and fear came (and quickly ended) and when the coronavirus scare affected the entire world and not just China.
First Turning - 1945 - the USA and USSR emerge from WWII as the two dominant world powers. The Cold War begins. The Korean War breaks out and ends in an armistice. Keynesian Neoliberalism replaces Classical Liberalism and Progressivism in the Democratic Party as the world becomes for Globally connected. The UN, NATO and the IMF world bank is established as the world becomes more globally centralized. The Civil Rights Acts of the 50s and early 60s to end Jim Crowe and Segregation are put into effect and the Federal Government gains more power over the states.
Second Turning - 1964 - JFK is assassinated and the Cold War heats up with the Vietnam War. The peace movements quickly make the war unpopular. Neoconservatism (a more conservative, supply side flavor of Neoliberalism) begins to emerge and dominate in the Republican Party. The gold standard is officially abandoned and the classically liberal Libertarian Party forms to challenge the more dominant and interventionist Neoliberalism of both parties. Nixon resigns in shame as a result of Watergate, rapid stagflation ensues and the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976 is the last time The Democrats are able to win the southern states. A poor economy, his pessimistic malaise speech and mishandling of the Iran situation results in his loss to Reagan in 1980.
Third Turning - 1980 - Strauss and Howe start this turning with Reagan’s optimistic “Morning in America” campaign in 1984 that resulted his sweeping electoral victory. But I chose to move it back earlier to 1980 when he won his first term, since that’s when things really started to change. The economy soared for most of the 80s and 90s and the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other major communist power, China, adopted a more free market friendly economy, but never completely abandoned communism and totalitarianism. The Culture War heated up as the more traditional values of the right clashed with the more progressive values of the left. Universities, schools and the press became more left leaning. Immigration and Globalism increased as America became more reliant on other countries (especially China) for manufacturing.
Fourth Turning - 2001 - Strauss and Howe believe the current 4T started with the 2008 Financial Crisis, and I used to agree with them. But as time has passed it seems clear to me that it started on September 11th 2001. Here are the phases of this current Fourth Turning:
1. Catalyst - 2001 - The terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001 shocked the world and showed us that, just because the we “won” the cold war, we weren’t yet at peace.
2. Regeneracy - 2001 - The regeneracy for this catalyst was immediate as volunteers rushed in to save lives. Despite the growing culture war, the country came together with a new sense of patriotism. But over time, the unity collapsed as the war on Terror spread to Iraq and the Patriot Act was passed. Anti-war leftists and libertarians turned against the hyper-interventionist surveillance state. Events like Katrina in 2005, the financial meltdown of 2008, The Great Recession, The Tea Party Movement and Occupy Wall Street only served to further divide the country and exacerbated the crisis as the culture war raged worse than ever before. Like it did during the Civil War 4T, the regeneracy failed. The establishment and pro-war Neo-liberal and Neo-conservative factions of both parties became increasingly discredited in favor of an anti-war populism on both the left and right. Brexit and Trump’s election saw a rejection of globalism and a desire to secure borders and bring manufacturing back home. The economy made a massive recovery after 2016 and was booming during the first few years of Trump’s presidency. But Trump was a divisive figure who was hated by the Democrats and he was impeached in late 2019.
3. Climax - 2019 - The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan China in late November 2019. The disease spread rapidly and resulted in thousands of deaths. In the US, the politicians and press were distracted by the impeachment trial and were late to react. China was unable to contain the disease and it spread all over the world. By March 2020 governments all over the world mandated self quarantine, business lockdowns and social distancing. The economy, which was booming only a month earlier, collapsed and drastic measures were needed to be taken to save people from falling into poverty while still protecting the public from infection. Unfortunately we are still so divided that we can’t even come to an agreement on a simple stimulus bill. We have been divided so long and so badly that even a virus can easily conquer us. But I’m optimistic that we’ll get our act together before it’s too late.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Eric the Green - 04-01-2020
Responding to Drakus 79:
Thanks for your thoughts.
The climax of the current 4T won't come until near the end, much as happened in the last one in 1944. We can expect the climax to unfold in 2025 and reach a peak in 2027, and then be resolved. The corona virus is a passing event that will become part of the new normal in this 4T.
The 3T began in 2008. The 2001 attack was also a momentary blip in the 3T. No national response was made, only voluntary service in an army 10000 miles from home. No consensus existed on these wars; Bush's misguided attack on Iraq in 2003 was the main issue in a divided country during the 2004 election, which saw an upsurge of youth participation.
The Regeneracy in this 4T is happening among the people. 3T rulership has been too entrenched this time, much as it was in the civil war 4T which began in 1850 or earlier. The resistance to Trump in the women's marches, the March for Our Lives rally (and these were the biggest marches ever and had worldwide participation), the climate rallies, the 2018 midterms, and Bernie's campaign, and people-power movements worldwide in 2019, will be put into action during the 2020s.
I like your breakdown of the pre civil war turnings. That supports my point about what happened two saecula ago, which is being repeated now. The 4T regeneracy was happening among the people in the 1850s long before the old 3T leadership gave way to Abraham Lincoln during the 4T. Trump is the new Hoover and the new Buchanan.
GW Bush has close resemblance as well to some of these 1850s and 1920s figures. He is related to (even descended from I think) Franklin Pierce through his mother, and he was born on almost the same day of the year (with his Sun in the same zodiac/longitude degree) as Calvin Coolidge.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Tim Randal Walker - 04-01-2020
I believe that somebody once posted that September 11th was a phony 4th.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Blazkovitz - 04-02-2020
(04-01-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Regeneracy in this 4T is happening among the people. 3T rulership has been too entrenched this time, much as it was in the civil war 4T which began in 1850 or earlier. The resistance to Trump in the women's marches, the March for Our Lives rally (and these were the biggest marches ever and had worldwide participation), the climate rallies, the 2018 midterms, and Bernie's campaign, and people-power movements worldwide in 2019, will be put into action during the 2020s.
So the Regeneracy is basically "activism" becoming a part of ordinary people's life?
This is why I dislike the Civic archetype, their herd-oriented mindset doesn't appeal to me. I prefer the Xer approach of solving problems by yourself.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - David Horn - 04-02-2020
(04-02-2020, 05:35 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:(04-01-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Regeneracy in this 4T is happening among the people. 3T rulership has been too entrenched this time, much as it was in the civil war 4T which began in 1850 or earlier. The resistance to Trump in the women's marches, the March for Our Lives rally (and these were the biggest marches ever and had worldwide participation), the climate rallies, the 2018 midterms, and Bernie's campaign, and people-power movements worldwide in 2019, will be put into action during the 2020s.
So the Regeneracy is basically "activism" becoming a part of ordinary people's life?
This is why I dislike the Civic archetype, their herd-oriented mindset doesn't appeal to me. I prefer the Xer approach of solving problems by yourself.
Except truly serious problems cannot be solved that way. Could WW-II have been won through individual effort? Of course not. The same is true for COVID-19.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Eric the Green - 04-02-2020
(04-02-2020, 11:51 AM)David Horn Wrote:(04-02-2020, 05:35 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:(04-01-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Regeneracy in this 4T is happening among the people. 3T rulership has been too entrenched this time, much as it was in the civil war 4T which began in 1850 or earlier. The resistance to Trump in the women's marches, the March for Our Lives rally (and these were the biggest marches ever and had worldwide participation), the climate rallies, the 2018 midterms, and Bernie's campaign, and people-power movements worldwide in 2019, will be put into action during the 2020s.
So the Regeneracy is basically "activism" becoming a part of ordinary people's life?
This is why I dislike the Civic archetype, their herd-oriented mindset doesn't appeal to me. I prefer the Xer approach of solving problems by yourself.
Except truly serious problems cannot be solved that way. Could WW-II have been won through individual effort? Of course not. The same is true for COVID-19.
That's right. Personal problems can be solved by yourself, perhaps with a good teacher or counselor. But some problems are collective and need a collective solution. Of course, that means participation by individuals making the decision to do so. And of course today's libertarian neo-liberal right wing promotes the idea that collective problems can be solved by individuals, as when they say that rather than asking the government to do things, we should just vote by how we shop. Or just let business do what it wants without paying taxes and the benefits will trickle-down. Won't work. Entrepreneurs and individual inventors do contribute a lot, but in such times as ours it's not enough. The civic archetype is becoming a dominant force at the time that collective solutions are needed. That obviously applies to the COVID-19 event. People need to follow guidelines and rules issued by the government. Otherwise, if people behave as individuals, they are endangering themselves and others.
According to The Fourth Turning, whereas nomad Generation X helped nurture individual risk-taking and adventure in the freewheeling 3T era in youth and helped make it as exciting as it was, creating Xtreme sports and such, Gen X nomads are now supposed in mid-life to apply the skills they learned as can-do risk-takers and pragmatic, ad-hoc adaptive entrepreneurs to becoming good situation-managers and officers during the crisis, applying their skills to serve the community and the needs of society in the 4T crisis. It can be a difficult adjustment for nomads, but they aren't so young anymore, and thus they feel more responsible, or at least that was/is the hope of the T4T authors. I watch Gov. Newsom in action and he seems to fill the bill nicely.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - AspieMillennial - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 05:35 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:(04-01-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Regeneracy in this 4T is happening among the people. 3T rulership has been too entrenched this time, much as it was in the civil war 4T which began in 1850 or earlier. The resistance to Trump in the women's marches, the March for Our Lives rally (and these were the biggest marches ever and had worldwide participation), the climate rallies, the 2018 midterms, and Bernie's campaign, and people-power movements worldwide in 2019, will be put into action during the 2020s.
So the Regeneracy is basically "activism" becoming a part of ordinary people's life?
This is why I dislike the Civic archetype, their herd-oriented mindset doesn't appeal to me. I prefer the Xer approach of solving problems by yourself.
I like that approach too but I'm stuck in the Civic generation that doesn't get it. Being autistic, the world wasn't built for me so I had to create solutions that worked for me. Of course that's seen as anti intellectual now. You are supposed to do what doesn't work for you and get blamed for it not working for you or do what you know works for you and get seen as stupid for having self knowledge.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Blazkovitz - 04-03-2020
(04-02-2020, 05:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: today's libertarian neo-liberal right wing promotes the idea that collective problems can be solved by individuals, as when they say that rather than asking the government to do things, we should just vote by how we shop.
Society is made up of individuals, so if all members of society stop buying an unethical company's products, the company will either go bankrupt or be forced to change its ways. Segregating wastes, stopping watching porn or buying plastic containers are good examples of DIY approach to solving social problems.
If everybody was so responsible, legislative approach wouldn't be necessary and libertarianism or anarcho-individualism would work fine. Unfortunately some people are not motivated enough.
Quote:The civic archetype is becoming a dominant force at the time that collective solutions are needed. That obviously applies to the COVID-19 event. People need to follow guidelines and rules issued by the government. Otherwise, if people behave as individuals, they are endangering themselves and others.
Yeah, but this should apply only in emergencies. The danger of Civic is precisely that they retain the collectivistic attitudes after they cease to be necessary, that's why 1Ts are so oppressive.
Quote:According to The Fourth Turning, whereas nomad Generation X helped nurture individual risk-taking and adventure in the freewheeling 3T era in youth and helped make it as exciting as it was, creating Xtreme sports and such, Gen X nomads are now supposed in mid-life to apply the skills they learned as can-do risk-takers and pragmatic, ad-hoc adaptive entrepreneurs to becoming good situation-managers and officers during the crisis, applying their skills to serve the community and the needs of society in the 4T crisis. It can be a difficult adjustment for nomads, but they aren't so young anymore, and thus they feel more responsible, or at least that was/is the hope of the T4T authors. I watch Gov. Newsom in action and he seems to fill the bill nicely.
Responsibility is an individual trait. "Serving the community" really means serving the individuals that make it up. So, collectivism should be replaced by love and kindness between individuals.
Pragmatic, adaptive Xer entrepreneurs will be very necessary to rebuild the economy after the pandemic is over. And exciting entertainment helps people relax during the lockdowns.
You are right about Newsom, he is doing much better than the boomer Cuomo.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Blazkovitz - 04-03-2020
(03-24-2020, 08:20 PM)Ghost Wrote: I'm just going to take guesses, but please let me know what you think about this chart since 3T of the previous saeculum:
Great Power Saeculum (1865-1945)
3T (1908-1929): 1918 (Armistice day/End of WWI)
4T (1929-1945): 1933 (Hitler rising to power, worst year of the Great Depression)
Millennial Saeculum (1945-present)
1T (1945-1963): 1956? (peak of 50's pop culture)
2T (1963-1980): 1968 (MLK and RFK assassinations, "peak" year of Baby Boomer culture)
3T (1980-2008): 1989 (Berlin Wall falls, Tim Berners-Lee invents World Wide Web)
4T (2008-present): 2020 (WWIII scare, reactions to Brexit, coronavirus scare, hantavirus, possibly dramatic 2020 election)
I am most unsure about 1T and 2T for Millennial Saeculum.
I agree with the dates for 2T, 3T and 4T.
For millennial saeculum's 1T, what about 1958 (first American spacecraft)? The space race meant a lot for the turning.
For the WW2 crisis, 1941 was the most important year of the war because the Germans attacked Russia.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - beechnut79 - 04-03-2020
(04-03-2020, 05:31 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:Also the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor near the end of that year.(03-24-2020, 08:20 PM)Ghost Wrote: I'm just going to take guesses, but please let me know what you think about this chart since 3T of the previous saeculum:
Great Power Saeculum (1865-1945)
3T (1908-1929): 1918 (Armistice day/End of WWI)
4T (1929-1945): 1933 (Hitler rising to power, worst year of the Great Depression)
Millennial Saeculum (1945-present)
1T (1945-1963): 1956? (peak of 50's pop culture)
2T (1963-1980): 1968 (MLK and RFK assassinations, "peak" year of Baby Boomer culture)
3T (1980-2008): 1989 (Berlin Wall falls, Tim Berners-Lee invents World Wide Web)
4T (2008-present): 2020 (WWIII scare, reactions to Brexit, coronavirus scare, hantavirus, possibly dramatic 2020 election)
I am most unsure about 1T and 2T for Millennial Saeculum.
I agree with the dates for 2T, 3T and 4T.
For millennial saeculum's 1T, what about 1958 (first American spacecraft)? The space race meant a lot for the turning.
For the WW2 crisis, 1941 was the most important year of the war because the Germans attacked Russia.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - freivolk - 04-04-2020
(03-24-2020, 08:20 PM)Ghost Wrote: I'm just going to take guesses, but please let me know what you think about this chart since 3T of the previous saeculum:
Great Power Saeculum (1865-1945)
3T (1908-1929): 1918 (Armistice day/End of WWI)
4T (1929-1945): 1933 (Hitler rising to power, worst year of the Great Depression)
Millennial Saeculum (1945-present)
1T (1945-1963): 1956? (peak of 50's pop culture)
2T (1963-1980): 1968 (MLK and RFK assassinations, "peak" year of Baby Boomer culture)
3T (1980-2008): 1989 (Berlin Wall falls, Tim Berners-Lee invents World Wide Web)
4T (2008-present): 2020 (WWIII scare, reactions to Brexit, coronavirus scare, hantavirus, possibly dramatic 2020 election)
I am most unsure about 1T and 2T for Millennial Saeculum.
I think the best way to define a "climax" is, that it is a "Point of no Return". The trends of the Turning have reach a poiint, which makes a return to the status quo impossible.
So I would say:
1917 (USA enters WWI, Communist take over Russia)
1941 ("Barbarossa", start of the Holocaust, USA enters WWII)
1957 (Its difficult for a 1T, but I think the Sputnik shows, that the Cold War blocs are full established)
1979 (Islamic Revolution, "second Cold War", neoliberal/conservative backlash in Britain and USA)
2001 9/11
2020 definitly looks like a climax, but only the future will tell.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Eric the Green - 04-05-2020
(04-03-2020, 04:49 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:(04-02-2020, 05:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: today's libertarian neo-liberal right wing promotes the idea that collective problems can be solved by individuals, as when they say that rather than asking the government to do things, we should just vote by how we shop.
Society is made up of individuals, so if all members of society stop buying an unethical company's products, the company will either go bankrupt or be forced to change its ways. Segregating wastes, stopping watching porn or buying plastic containers are good examples of DIY approach to solving social problems.
If everybody was so responsible, legislative approach wouldn't be necessary and libertarianism or anarcho-individualism would work fine. Unfortunately some people are not motivated enough.
But that's the rub. How do you get everybody to be responsible? And quickly, if necessary? In our current stage of evolution (which in our early boomer hippie days we didn't really face up to), we are not very responsible beings. That requires a spiritual journey, which very few people take. Problems can't wait for everybody to do the right thing. We'd wait forever. No, it takes the government to set policy for the nation. Individuals can make great contributions; I don't knock that at all. But besides DIY and inventive entreprenuers, we need laws and regulations, and for everyone to participate in the national programs and enjoy being a part of something greater than ourselves. Sometimes JFK the civic is right: ask what you can do for your country.
Quote:Quote:The civic archetype is becoming a dominant force at the time that collective solutions are needed. That obviously applies to the COVID-19 event. People need to follow guidelines and rules issued by the government. Otherwise, if people behave as individuals, they are endangering themselves and others.
Yeah, but this should apply only in emergencies. The danger of Civic is precisely that they retain the collectivistic attitudes after they cease to be necessary, that's why 1Ts are so oppressive.
Yes, that's the danger with any trend, that it goes too far. In the last 40 years, individualism has gone way too far, and it's past time for us to get more collectivist again. Individualism has ceased to be necessary, and in fact it is very oppressive. The Republicans have forced this false individualism upon us, and not only does it mean we can't act together as a nation very often or for very long or very well, but it merely allows the greediest and wealthiest to rule over us and hog all the money and power. I am glad that the slogan for this crisis is "we are all in this together." I hear it a lot, and it has been the Democratic Party slogan for a while. I hope it sticks.
Quote:Quote:According to The Fourth Turning, whereas nomad Generation X helped nurture individual risk-taking and adventure in the freewheeling 3T era in youth and helped make it as exciting as it was, creating Xtreme sports and such, Gen X nomads are now supposed in mid-life to apply the skills they learned as can-do risk-takers and pragmatic, ad-hoc adaptive entrepreneurs to becoming good situation-managers and officers during the crisis, applying their skills to serve the community and the needs of society in the 4T crisis. It can be a difficult adjustment for nomads, but they aren't so young anymore, and thus they feel more responsible, or at least that was/is the hope of the T4T authors. I watch Gov. Newsom in action and he seems to fill the bill nicely.
Responsibility is an individual trait. "Serving the community" really means serving the individuals that make it up. So, collectivism should be replaced by love and kindness between individuals.
Pragmatic, adaptive Xer entrepreneurs will be very necessary to rebuild the economy after the pandemic is over. And exciting entertainment helps people relax during the lockdowns.
You are right about Newsom, he is doing much better than the boomer Cuomo.
Such entrepreneurs are needed, and entertainment is needed, although the Lost and Greatest Generations were the greatest entertainers, and nothing remotely approaching them exist today. So that in itself was not a Generation X strong point at all. It was their adventurism that was outstanding. What Gen X can contribute now is boldness in action, like Gov. Newsom shows. Sports will continue, although that's mostly a millennial realm now, but if Gen X applies their innate courage to the social and political realm now, it will be entertaining in a better way. But Gen X has little vision, so Boomers are still needed at the helm, if they can step up to the role.
Being in a 4T, what is necessary will be quite in line with what the authors say, and it's quite the opposite of what you say here, for the most part. The community is more than the individuals that make it up. It is a whole, greater than the sum of its parts. We are not individuals, in fact, except in a relative degree. The individual is the main locus of learning and responsibility. We don't want to see individuality submerged. I still have my individual goals, desires and creative ambitions. But we cannot exist alone for more than a second. That's a scientific fact. As individuals we don't even know who we are without others. Love can be part of the collective being too, as it was in the new sixties love culture, and in spiritual communities throughout history, and this greater love nourishes and inspires us. Love is divine energy, as Teilhard de Chardin said. This greater love is more fantastic even than a pair of lovers is. When a people are alive, and moved by a common love, some magic is afoot in the land. Memes and divine ideas spread among us. This has also happened in more recent times in spite of Reaganomics. The Gen X and Millennial memes and fads aren't so interesting nor so genuinely subversive to the status quo as the silent and boomer ones were, but they still happen. And they can be liberating as well as connecting.
We need far more than to rebuild the economy after the pandemic! Come on, you know that. It was already broken almost beyond repair, just as Sanders says. The oligarchy needs to be replaced by wealth and power spread among the people again, not hoarded by the 1%. The environment needs to be restored. We depend on it for life, and for love, and for all the best experiences of our lives. We also need to restore our democracy and our government after 40 years of erosion and destruction. We cannot abide a revival of racism and xenophobia. We were in crisis long before this pandemic, which is just some shock treatment which wakes us up to the fact that we ARE all in this together. We depend on each other totally; no one can make it alone. Responsibility is an individual thing, but we also gain it when we can feed off the energy of others and the energy of a society-- the greater human being which has energy and identity of its own, and the greater being of Nature too, and the greater being of the divine and angelic spirit worlds.
We have fallen so far out of balance toward the individual, that it will be a while before we need to worry about a degree of collectivism that ceases to be necessary. No doubt this could happen someday. The best thing is to have as much balance as we can during all times and all turnings. When genuine and evolved, the individual and the collective are synthesized into the creative. That is the project of humanity in this era of civilization, as we become one people on one planet but still individuals who want to be free.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Eric the Green - 04-05-2020
I'm not sure that every turning has a climax, or just one. At least, there are highlights. Let's see, besides the beginning catalyst events near the year of shift:
2T (1886-1908) the Pullman Strike and the Bryan-McKinley election. Blow-up of the Maine and the Spanish-American War.
3T (1908-1929) World War I. Lindbergh flight.
4T (1929-1946) FDR's hundred days. Pearl Harbor and D-Day.
1T (1946-1964) Korean War, McCarthy and MacArthur. Cuban Missile Crisis
2T (1964-1984) Summer of Love, riots, 1968 revolts/Democratic Convention, Watergate scandal
3T (1984-2008) Fall of Berlin Wall and velvet revolutions. 9-11.
4T (2008-2029) Arab Spring and Occupy. Regeneracy movements. Conflict and resolution of the American Divide.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - Blazkovitz - 04-05-2020
(04-05-2020, 03:47 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: But that's the rub. How do you get everybody to be responsible? And quickly, if necessary? In our current stage of evolution (which in our early boomer hippie days we didn't really face up to), we are not very responsible beings.
Unfortunately I have to agree. That's why government and market (which is a means of financial compulsion) have to exist. But collectivist and statist approach should be an exception rather than a rule. Certainly it's necessary during the current pandemic, or maybe to solve some environmental problems.
Quote:besides DIY and inventive entreprenuers, we need laws and regulations, and for everyone to participate in the national programs and enjoy being a part of something greater than ourselves. Sometimes JFK the civic is right: ask what you can do for your country.
What if such programs stifle individual creativity? Also, some people might feel overwhelmed rather than empowered. Not everybody is a scout.
Quote:Yes, that's the danger with any trend, that it goes too far. In the last 40 years, individualism has gone way too far, and it's past time for us to get more collectivist again. Individualism has ceased to be necessary, and in fact it is very oppressive. The Republicans have forced this false individualism upon us, and not only does it mean we can't act together as a nation very often or for very long or very well, but it merely allows the greediest and wealthiest to rule over us and hog all the money and power.
Social media and radical politics of the 2010s have already killed Reaganite individualism. I agree that it was a false individualism because everybody was supposed to be adhere to commercial trends. But as long as the pressure is cultural rather than legal, you can be a non-conformist without fearing imprisonment. In a Millennial-run period, non-conformity might be illegal.
I don't fear "neoliberals" as they are mostly old geezers, I fear the Anglosphere nations embracing a form of scientistic authoritarianism like China did.
Quote:Being in a 4T, what is necessary will be quite in line with what the authors say, and it's quite the opposite of what you say here, for the most part.
What about minimizing the collectivist turnings (4T and 1T) if they cannot be avoided? That's why dissenters are needed.
Quote:Love can be part of the collective being too, as it was in the new sixties love culture, and in spiritual communities throughout history, and this greater love nourishes and inspires us. Love is divine energy, as Teilhard de Chardin said. This greater love is more fantastic even than a pair of lovers is. When a people are alive, and moved by a common love, some magic is afoot in the land. Memes and divine ideas spread among us. This has also happened in more recent times in spite of Reaganomics. The Gen X and Millennial memes and fads aren't so interesting nor so genuinely subversive to the status quo as the silent and boomer ones were, but they still happen. And they can be liberating as well as connecting.
You can have a sense of togetherness without collectivism, and you certainly cannot decree it by government fiat. Trends only feel "liberating as well as connecting" when they are embraced voluntarily. In the 60s there were many sub-cultures one could choose from, hippies to Jesus Freaks.
RE: "Climax" year of each turning - David Horn - 04-05-2020
(04-03-2020, 04:49 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:(04-02-2020, 05:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: today's libertarian neo-liberal right wing promotes the idea that collective problems can be solved by individuals, as when they say that rather than asking the government to do things, we should just vote by how we shop.
Society is made up of individuals, so if all members of society stop buying an unethical company's products, the company will either go bankrupt or be forced to change its ways. Segregating wastes, stopping watching porn or buying plastic containers are good examples of DIY approach to solving social problems.
If everybody was so responsible, legislative approach wouldn't be necessary and libertarianism or anarcho-individualism would work fine. Unfortunately some people are not motivated enough.
None of this ever happens, so wishing it so is a waste of time and effort. If individuals are left to their own devices, enough will chose to be selfish that the remaining few (or many) will be forced to do likewise out of self and familial interest. This is Human Nature 101.
Blazkovitz Wrote:Eric the Green Wrote:The civic archetype is becoming a dominant force at the time that collective solutions are needed. That obviously applies to the COVID-19 event. People need to follow guidelines and rules issued by the government. Otherwise, if people behave as individuals, they are endangering themselves and others.
Yeah, but this should apply only in emergencies. The danger of Civic is precisely that they retain the collectivistic attitudes after they cease to be necessary, that's why 1Ts are so oppressive.
Is there overlap? Of course. Is the alternative better? No. It will take some time for the cracks to appear in any model. We're 40 years into neoliberalism, and the cracks are now chasms. The last 1T was particularly bad, not because it was stifling (it was), but due to oppressive hangover of the hyper-individualists from the prior 3T. The Red Scare (Nomad) was vastly worse than the Hayes Code (Civic). And I lived through it, so I have more than book knowledge here.
Blazkovitz Wrote:Eric the Green Wrote:According to The Fourth Turning, whereas nomad Generation X helped nurture individual risk-taking and adventure in the freewheeling 3T era in youth and helped make it as exciting as it was, creating Xtreme sports and such, Gen X nomads are now supposed in mid-life to apply the skills they learned as can-do risk-takers and pragmatic, ad-hoc adaptive entrepreneurs to becoming good situation-managers and officers during the crisis, applying their skills to serve the community and the needs of society in the 4T crisis. It can be a difficult adjustment for nomads, but they aren't so young anymore, and thus they feel more responsible, or at least that was/is the hope of the T4T authors. I watch Gov. Newsom in action and he seems to fill the bill nicely.
Responsibility is an individual trait. "Serving the community" really means serving the individuals that make it up. So, collectivism should be replaced by love and kindness between individuals.
Pragmatic, adaptive Xer entrepreneurs will be very necessary to rebuild the economy after the pandemic is over. And exciting entertainment helps people relax during the lockdowns.
You are right about Newsom, he is doing much better than the boomer Cuomo.
The last 1T was as great on the up side as it was due almost entirely to communal effort. Two obvious examples: the Internet and the Space program. There are many others, but top those!
And in defense of Andrew Cuomo, he started later than he should, but went full-force when the evidence indicated he should.