Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: The Graveyard (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-35.html) +--- Thread: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? (/thread-618.html) |
RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 Economic growth as the USA experienced in the "American High" after WWII is not possible today. In the light of that, growth under Obama has been spectacular. The USA was the only superpower after WWII, especially economically. Now the USA has many competitors that are growing faster than the USA. Population growth is declining, and resources are becoming more expensive, and this will get greatly worse under the Trump administration which seeks to double down on old dirty industries that are becoming more expensive to operate and staff, choke off immigration, and cut back or eliminate social spending which is returned to the economy. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - TeacherinExile - 01-09-2017 Jordan Goodspeed. Although, since I admittedly reposted the same article to you under my present moniker, if you're thinking that I am "SomeGuy", that would be true, too. Thanks for unmasking yourself, Guy Fawkes. (Joking) Sometimes, I would like to change my moniker, too. This teacher has been in self-imposed exile for too long now. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Quote:I won't claim to have known FDR, but nonetheless, no way in Hell is Trump another FDR. Nope, he's not FDR, Hitler, Mussolini, Berlusconi, or Idi Amin. He's definitely Donald Trump. That whooshing sound you heard on your way in was the point flying right over your head. Quote:Sure, FDR was rich and horny. Traits he shared with our Fearless Leader. Quote:But he was not new rich Irrelevant. Quote:and not a complete Ugly American like Trump. Addressed. Quote:His persona was about as far from Trump as one can imagine. He fit in more with British upper class people. Which is to say he probably wouldn't be electable today. Quote:It was a match made in heaven given the times. I dunno, I think DT is a pretty good fit for today's America. Not how we pretend, but how it actually is. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 (01-09-2017, 02:21 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I dunno, I think DT is a pretty good fit for today's America. Not how we pretend, but how it actually is. I'd say we are moving from a leader who represented the best that our flawed country could be, to a leader who represents the worst that we are. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Quote:I'd say we are moving from a leader who represented the best that our flawed country could be, to a leader who represents the worst that we are.Eh, never really got into the hagiography of the man. His election was a nice milestone for the civil rights movement, but other than that he was just a reasonably intelligent, prudent, sensible man who was not really able to deliver on the change he promised. Probably wasn't the best fit for the time he was in, but whatever, the past is the past. Of course, I'm not really all that impressed with Ta-Nehisi Coates either, so admittedly I am probably a Nazi. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - TeacherinExile - 01-09-2017 "Nope, he's [Trump] not FDR, Hitler, Mussolini, Berlusconi, or Idi Amin." Agreed, with the exception of Berlusconi. Trump transmogrifying into Hitler or Mussolini is a "fat-tail risk." (Idi Amin? C'mon, I know you're being facetious there.) Trump going down in American history as a Gray Champion, ala Washington, Lincoln or FDR? Don't see it in his DNA, though I would assign it at least a 5-10 percent probability. The impetus for my starting this thread can be traced to two sources: an excellent biography titled The Sack of Rome: Media + Money + Celebrity = Power = Silvio Berlusconi (2007), and a recent article by former editor-in-chief of The Economist, hardly a "liberal rag": "America’s Berlusconi" https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/berlusconi-lessons-about-trump-by-bill-emmott-2016-11?utm_source=mail2friend&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=mail2friend Some excerpts from this article: For the past couple of weeks, the world has been guessing at how US President-elect Donald Trump will behave in office and what policies he will pursue, following a long campaign full of contradictory statements. America’s previous businessman-presidents – Warren G. Harding and Herbert Hoover – were around too long ago to provide much guidance. There is, however, a recent European precedent: Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi. What Trump has achieved, Berlusconi pioneered. Like Trump, Berlusconi is a businessman who made his first fortune in real estate. When he entered politics in 1994, he was an outsider, albeit one who, also like Trump, had long been close to plenty of insiders. The similarities don’t end there. Both Trump and Berlusconi are intimately familiar with the insides of courtrooms; Trump has moved fast since the election to settle fraud lawsuits against Trump University, but has about 70 other suits outstanding against him and his businesses. And both have an array of conflicts of interest with their role as head of government, thanks to their large business empires. Berlusconi like Trump, managed to present himself as a rich man and a populist. He preferred to communicate directly with the people, bypassing traditional media and party structures. His propensity for glamorous women and glitzy homes somehow enhanced his popular appeal. The comparison between Trump and Berlusconi is far from superficial. In fact, Italy’s experience with Berlusconi – or Il Cavaliere (the Knight), as he is known in his country – provides six clear lessons for Americans and the world on what to expect from Trump. First, no one should underestimate the next US president... The second lesson is that Trump will probably pursue what is essentially a permanent political campaign, injecting himself directly into conversations... The third lesson from Berlusconi’s success is that even a very wealthy and powerful person can wield the victim narrative effectively... The fourth lesson is that mudslinging is bound to happen. Berlusconi’s used his TV stations and newspapers so liberally to smear his opponents that the writer Roberto Saviano called them his macchina del fango or “mud machine.” Trump’s attacks on the media, often carried out via Twitter, are a precursor to this, as are his campaign vows to “open up” libel laws. His chief mud-slinger is likely to be his newly appointed chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, the former chair of the ultra right-wing Breitbart News. The fifth lesson is that Trump will probably continue to prize loyalty above all else in his administration, just as Berlusconi has... The final lesson of Berlusconi is that expressions of admiration for strongmen like Russian President Vladimir Putin should be taken seriously. Narcissistic lone rangers like Berlusconi and Trump are accustomed to making personal deals, and prefer other strongmen as their interlocutors. Berlusconi’s favorite overseas visits while in office were to Putin’s dacha and former Libyan dictator Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s tent, not to boring European Council meetings or G20 summits. In the end, however, there is one key difference between Silvio Berlusconi and Donald Trump. Berlusconi had no real agenda while in office, except to further his business and personal interests and nurture his own power by providing resources and favors to his supporters. His greatest disservice to Italians was his inaction in the face of economic stagnation, but at least he didn’t make it worse. Trump, by contrast, does have an agenda, however hard to read. Whether it will make things better or worse remains to be seen. Mark Twain's now-clichéd observation that history does not repeat, it rhymes, is as operative now as it was when he first said it, but... ...historical analogues, though never perfectly correlated, can nevertheless be somewhat predictive and at the very least instructive as to how a given leader might lead or behave while in office. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 One thing that Trump has going for him among those who oppose him: our expectations of him are so low, that any little thing he does right is going to be impressive; not to mention we'll never hear the end of it from Drumpf and his followers. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Quote:Don't see it in his DNA, though I would assign it at least a 5-10 percent probability. Really? at least 5-10%? Where is this degree of "precision" coming from, can I see your work? I think what you meant to say was "I find it unlikely, but not impossible". Made-up numbers are a pet peeve. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 (01-09-2017, 04:29 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: One thing that Trump has going for him among those who oppose him: our expectations of him are so low, that any little thing he does right is going to be impressive; not to mention we'll never hear the end of it from Drumpf and his followers. Whereas Obama's followers fully expected him to walk on water, part the seas, and provide them a free pony, and consequently many of them felt let down when he turned out to be just a president. Sounds like Trump got the better deal. He avoids gassing the Jews, enslaving black people, or invading Poland and it'll apparently be a pleasant surprise. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 Exactly, which is one reason why I lean toward the idea that he'll be re-elected. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - TeacherinExile - 01-09-2017 (01-09-2017, 01:43 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(01-07-2017, 04:56 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:If you are who I think you are, (01-09-2017, 04:38 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Touche...though I lay no claim to "precision." (I did pull the 5-10 percent probability out of the air.) My broader point is simply to say that Trump's chances of being the next Gray Champion is not a "fat-tail" event. He could pull it off. It is certainly more likely than his transmogrifying into Hitler or Mussolini. But I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that the latter event is a fat-tail risk of less than one percent. I probably don't need to be a statistician to be right about that. It would take a confluence of dire events to come together, a "perfect storm," if you will, for some variety of fascism to take hold in America.Quote:Don't see it in his DNA, though I would assign it at least a 5-10 percent probability. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Quote:Touche...though I lay no claim to "precision." (I did pull the 5-10 percent probability out of the air.) My broader point is simply to say that Trump's chances of being the next Gray Champion is not a "fat-tail" event. He could pull it off. It is certainly more likely than his transmogrifying into Hitler or Mussolini. But I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that the latter event is a fat-tail risk of less than one percent. I probably don't need to be a statistician to be right about that. It would take a confluence of dire events to come together, a "perfect storm," if you will, for some variety of fascism to take hold in America. God, the default quoting scheme on this site is awful. Yeah, I lean towards the idea that he is "it" for the turning, for better or worse, and that he has a greater chance of actually doing something useful than he does becoming this century's trope-defining dictator. I realize you are using those "numbers" rhetorically, and I understand what you mean, but it really is a pet peeve of mine. Too many science classes where they ding you for false precision, I guess. Making numbers up wholesale? Gah! RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 He is the anti-gray champion. The only hope for a constructive and positive 4T is the movement against him. Fortunately he is by no-means "it" for the turning, unless he manages to overturn terms limits for the presidency. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 (01-09-2017, 05:37 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: He is the anti-gray champion. The only hope for a constructive and positive 4T is the movement against him. Fortunately he is by no-means "it" for the turning, unless he manages to overturn terms limits for the presidency. He may in fact be the Orange Champion, Eric. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Quote:The Orange Chump. BURN!!!! RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Here we go, another War & Peace length tract on the imminence of doom, gloom, and meatloaf for all. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 And at least one name drop of some historical figure, just to let you know the author knows who they are. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Nope, they must have changed their mind. I wonder... RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - SomeGuy - 01-09-2017 Cool, you can actually delete posts. Good to know. RE: Donald Trump: America's Berlusconi? - Eric the Green - 01-09-2017 (01-09-2017, 05:51 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(01-09-2017, 05:47 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:(01-09-2017, 05:37 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: He is the anti-gray champion. The only hope for a constructive and positive 4T is the movement against him. Fortunately he is by no-means "it" for the turning, unless he manages to overturn terms limits for the presidency. Orange Chump indeed: Too bad we didn't throw him out. Think how much of a stink it will be having to keep him around for 4-plus years. My goodness; hard to contemplate.......... |