+- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum)
+-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html)
+--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html)
+--- Thread: Following COVID-19 (/thread-6277.html)
Following COVID-19 - pbrower2a - 07-13-2020
COVID-19 will come to an end as a menace to life and liberty. This is the Crisis of 2020... OK, it can last into 2021 and even 2022.
This time we do not have a major war. COVID-19 is a killer on the scale of a war. It has cost over 137,000 American deaths alone which is less than the total deaths associated with any war involving America except World War II and the American Civil War. It has been killing at a rate higher than that of American losses in World War II, which was relatively light on America in contrast to other countries (including our then-colony the Philippines) that became war zones or came under occupation.
If plagues lead to violence, it is not international war. It may be bloody persecutions of vulnerable people... in the Middle Ages there was one group of people who could be robbed and killed on the shakiest pretexts. It rhymes with "Hughes". Mercifully we are more sophisticated than that. If some people have a better survival rate, then maybe we can learn a few things and save some lives. But all in all, international wars seem unlikely in a plague. As a writer for Star Trek put into a Klingon mouth as a proverb "Only fools fight in a burning building". Figuring that contracting COVID-19 is about as dangerous as things that I would never think of doing, like drunk driving, texting and driving, driving as I feel myself about to fall asleep, having unprotected sex with a complete stranger, using street drugs, breaking into a dog-infested house, doing violent crime, or failing to heed warning signs about cliffs or waterfalls...
This plague will reshape much of American life... permanently. That is the Crisis at work. So what will change?
1. LAW: emergencies
It will be easier to declare an emergency and make it stick. Business activities that can become conduits for a very nasty disease can be closed down for the duration. Obviously the choices will need to be rational. So bars get shut down but liquor stores are essential. Bookstores close but grocery stores don't. Business by mail or over the web (and web-related marketers use the mail and similar delivery services) will pick up the slack. Governments can impose quarantines against people in afflicted areas. A fourteen-day quarantine is a good reason for someone from Texas (which handled COVID-19 badly) to not visit New York. States can mandate the wearing of masks. A couple days ago I lamented over the Web that people in my part of Michigan were often failing to wear masks. It could be that some state employee tracked down my IP number and honed in on my county. I went to Wal*Mart just today, and practically everyone was in compliance on masks.
Travel restrictions were enforced perhaps as effectively as in WWII not so much by rationing as by the fact that although one could go places, there was nothing to do once one got there. That could take a city such as Chicago, which ordinarily has plenty of things to do, completely out of the question as a destination. One such experience of finding out such was enough to limit my travel to the grocery store, a medical clinic, and drive-in windows of a bank and fast-food places.
Business interests will of course lobby for relaxations of profit-gutting restrictions. In Michigan, the golf and motorboat interests were able to show that they could conduct their business with comparative safety. There remain restrictions on playing certain contact sports.
But on other aspects of law...
2. LAW: SEX. Obergfell v. Hedges sticks. Supreme Court rulings are definitive barring a Constitutional amendment. Support for any Constitutional amendment to outlaw same-sex marriage or child custody by same-sex couples is clearly inadequate for getting a two-thirds majority of both Houses of Congress and three fourths of the states. But this ruling comes as America becomes more sexually repressive.
This may have nothing to do with COVID-19 because the trend already existed. Society has been cracking down on sex between adults and underage children. Just think of what happened to Jeffrey Epstein... he knew what was going to happen despite his wealth and connections. What used to be treated with a wink and a not -- just don't do this again, says the judge, who imposes a fine and probation.
The trucking industry is scared of the prospect of its drivers being busted for patronizing prostitutes who might be underage, trafficked, or both. Trucking companies do not want their rigs or the precious cargoes within them confiscated -- or even delayed. It is conceivable that some crusading DA and sheriff in Tennessee might arrest a trucker for involvement with an underage prostitute from somewhere in eastern Europe and decide that the cargo is thus contraband. (If I were the company that owned the truck or was responsible for the cargo I'd fire the driver for putting my vehicle or its contests at risk for something so unwise, even if I have to fly someone in to complete the task. That cost would come out of that trucker's earnings if I could get away with that). Truckers are the most obvious people, but I can also see traveling salesmen and construction crews getting lonely and horny.
3. LAW: LABOR-MANAGEMENT RELATIONS. A few years ago I thought that America might trend to a more feudal style of relationship between management and labor with labor unions destroyed (unless those are the unions that serve a company by exhorting workers to make more sacrifices and work more hours, often off the clock as unpaid overtime so that they can 'deserve' more ... that they never get. Under such a system, government would set wages at abysmal levels and ban strikes... or perhaps even changing jobs without the consent of the employer. (That was Nazi Germany, infamous for far worse... but the Third Reich was a worker's Hell even if one was 'Aryan'). The trend of wages failing to keep up with productivity that has held since the 1970's will come to an end. The Millennial Generation will insist upon fair wages, and Big Business will not succeed to divide workers by ethnic or other such lines. "Right-to-work" laws will erode.
The tendency toward ridiculously high compensation for executives will come to an end about as Boomers fully retire from executive positions. Generation X executives are as rapacious as any, but they will be unable to get away with such gouging as Boomers have done. I expect to discuss that in "economics", as I can already think of multiple themes in economics.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Eric the Green - 07-14-2020
We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
RE: Following COVID-19 - pbrower2a - 07-14-2020
(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
As in 2009 I see American political culture changing dramatically and irrevocably. The Hard Right was able to find its way back to a near-dictatorial lock on power and might try to do so again. A failure of that might end the Crisis mode. Unlike the case in 2009, the generational shift (Generation X practically all in mid-life) practically ensures a sharp liberal turn in political and even economic life. In 2009, Boomers were the corporate executives who could reward themselves richly for treating others badly. Generation X, unlike Boomers, can't get away with that. Generation X will have to earn such through creative or entrepreneurial achievements. Add to this, we are likely to undergo another economic downturn... and saving the companies that may appear (this time) Too Big and Irresponsible to Save might depend upon paring back the economic compensation... and scheduling higher income taxes down the line. But here I am getting into economics which I seek to discuss as a topic in itself. The Millennial Generation does not believe in trickle-down economics and is unwilling to see a permanent underclass as a necessary condition for prosperity. The dominant elites of the American economy largely believed that no human suffering could be in excess so long as they get whatever they want, which is essentially the sort of ideology characteristic of societies headed to proletarian revolutions such as the Russian Revolution. Those elites still generally believe such, but they are rapidly losing their support.
The Millennial Generation is much more likely to congeal around a more egalitarian society, if not for themselves, then at least for their children. It will sacrifice for a better world. It will not sacrifice on behalf of one that serves people that they know about only for egregious excess and loathe for such.
In the mean time we have legitimate fear of new and potentially more dangerous viruses going around. No general wants to send his troops into a plague zone. War zone? That is his appointed task. Is there a COVID-23 or SARS-4 in the wings waiting to be unleashed upon the world?
The eighty-year rule applies. We do not have an exact analogue to the last Crisis even if the financial meltdown of 2007-2009 looks much like the first year and a half of the 1929-1932 meltdown. Neither Putin nor Xi -- although both are unredeemed dictators -- is a Hitler-like figure this time. We ended up with a Tea Party instead of a New Deal. If Obama tried to be the "new FDR", he fell short and became more like a "new Eisenhower" better at calming history than at defining history. Trump is of course an unmitigated disaster as a leader in every aspect of the term.
Pervasive as war was in the last Crisis, a few countries managed to avoid the effects of the Second World War completely: Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan. (Spain had its own horrible Crisis in its horrific civil war, so it didn't really get away scot-free). On the other hand if you have countries as disparate as Ethiopia and Thailand on opposite side of the same Crisis war (Thailand was an Axis Power at war with the UK and the UK had liberated Ethiopia) you have an unprecedented scope of war.
RE: Following COVID-19 - pbrower2a - 08-27-2020
We could do without this:
![[Image: 8edfd5f193f4f3dd17684da39fae9126510d07a1...=800&h=480]](https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8edfd5f193f4f3dd17684da39fae9126510d07a1b0ee242002874adcb1464902.jpg?w=800&h=480)
We have always had hatemongers, but not as President.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Einzige - 02-03-2021
This is looking increasingly convincing. Biden's approvals a week in are not stellar, and it's looking like the Democrats are going to muddle through this - fucking up the stimulus, being questioned on executive orders, etc. There is going to be a unified response from the Democrats, but a weak one. It's all very muddled.
RE: Following COVID-19 - jleagans - 02-04-2021
(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
Also note that some of us also believe its possible the 1T may have just started.
RE: Following COVID-19 - jleagans - 02-04-2021
(02-03-2021, 01:25 PM)Einzige Wrote: This is looking increasingly convincing. Biden's approvals a week in are not stellar, and it's looking like the Democrats are going to muddle through this - fucking up the stimulus, being questioned on executive orders, etc. There is going to be a unified response from the Democrats, but a weak one. It's all very muddled.
Approvals this early on (and post-trump potentially in general) are meaningless. Most of your points are just bad faith right wing garbage.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Bob Butler 54 - 02-04-2021
(02-04-2021, 02:22 AM)jleagans Wrote:(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
Also note that some of us also believe its possible the 1T may have just started.
It is harder for an elite to make profit from war than it used to be. It is easier to play financial games. Thus, the elites are not encouraging the selection of warlike leaders. Nukes, proxy wars and insurgent wars make it harder to act like a warrior. No one profits from having a bunch of their factories nuked. Insurgent wars with somebody supplying weapons gives a big advantage to the locals, the people who can disappear into the general population. No major power has started a crisis war in the Information Age.
I see the federal aspect of regeneracy as having just started. The problems are just now being addressed in earnest. I don't see any of them as taking as long as a crisis war used to. I can see a mood coming where we will try to prevent the problems from happening again and turn towards materialism, but the bug is still running wild, the racial legislation has not past, the economy hasn't recovered, the red violence trials are just beginning. The crisis heart is just underway. It is just that the people who don't believe that government should solve problems will try to ignore problems.
RE: Following COVID-19 - pbrower2a - 02-04-2021
(02-04-2021, 04:37 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(02-04-2021, 02:22 AM)jleagans Wrote:(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
Also note that some of us also believe its possible the 1T may have just started.
It is harder for an elite to make profit from war than it used to be. It is easier to play financial games. Thus, the elites are not encouraging the selection of warlike leaders. Nukes, proxy wars and insurgent wars make it harder to act like a warrior. No one profits from having a bunch of their factories nuked. Insurgent wars with somebody supplying weapons gives a big advantage to the locals, the people who can disappear into the general population. No major power has started a crisis war in the Information Age.
The Allies made the consequences of losing a war of aggression, committing genocide or plunder during such a war, or doing crimes against captive troops or people under occupation not worth the risk. The elites have too much to lose -- their lives, their liberty, and any pursuit of happiness. Since then, figures like Kabanda (President of Rwanda during the genocide), Milosevich, and Saddam Hussein have faced unpleasant consequences even if the people get masses with kid gloves.
I would not have problems if Trump faced the Hague Tribunal.
Quote:I see the federal aspect of regeneracy as having just started. The problems are just now being addressed in earnest. I don't see any of them as taking as long as a crisis war used to. I can see a mood coming where we will try to prevent the problems from happening again and turn towards materialism, but the bug is still running wild, the racial legislation has not past, the economy hasn't recovered, the red violence trials are just beginning. The crisis heart is just underway. It is just that the people who don't believe that government should solve problems will try to ignore problems.
However the 2020 election went, America was going to undergo sharp changes in the political culture. I don't want to say what America would be like now with a Trump re-election, and even if the consequence of the Biden Presidency is a reversion largely to old norms, much will change. I expect the more politically-charged material in K-12 textbooks to be altered to disparage conspiracy theories, political violence, and any compromise of the rule of law. I expect Donald Trump to become the scapegoat for almost all despicable tendencies in American political life. We will see reforms in education intended to make Americans less amenable to propaganda and conspiracy theories.
Something telling: the Canadian government just designated the Proud Boys a terrorist group.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Bob Butler 54 - 02-04-2021
(02-04-2021, 05:52 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I expect Donald Trump to become the scapegoat for almost all despicable tendencies in American political life.
I'm not sure. I'm considering one word, but otherwise I might agree. 'Almost.'
RE: Following COVID-19 - David Horn - 02-05-2021
(02-04-2021, 04:42 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(02-04-2021, 05:52 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I expect Donald Trump to become the scapegoat for almost all despicable tendencies in American political life.
I'm not sure. I'm considering one word, but otherwise I might agree. 'Almost.'
We all need a Satan to hate and fear. Trump will do ... for now.
RE: Following COVID-19 - beechnut79 - 02-05-2021
(02-05-2021, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:One time I tried to analyze a scapegoat for each decade beginning with the 1950s and I believe this is what I came up with:(02-04-2021, 04:42 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(02-04-2021, 05:52 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I expect Donald Trump to become the scapegoat for almost all despicable tendencies in American political life.
I'm not sure. I'm considering one word, but otherwise I might agree. 'Almost.'
We all need a Satan to hate and fear. Trump will do ... for now.
1950s: Communists
1960s: Entrenched Establishment
1970s: Oil Shieks
1980s: Labor Unions
1990s: Smokers and Drunk Drivers
2000s: Al Qaddafi (Architects of the 9/11 attacks)
2010s: Trump and associates
RE: Following COVID-19 - pbrower2a - 02-05-2021
1940s: fascists
1930s: economic royalists, then gangsters
1920s: anarchists and radicals, especially the IWW
1910s (late): the Kaiser and liquor
RE: Following COVID-19 - Bob Butler 54 - 02-07-2021
(02-05-2021, 11:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:That seems a decent list. I might question the 1960s entry, going against the entrenched establishment. The civil rights movement and tendency to go with hot wars with your containment might be mentioned explicitly.(02-05-2021, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote: We all need a Satan to hate and fear. Trump will do ... for now.One time I tried to analyze a scapegoat for each decade beginning with the 1950s and I believe this is what I came up with:
1910s (late): the Kaiser and liquor
1920s: anarchists and radicals, especially the IWW
1930s: economic royalists, then gangsters
1940s: fascists
1950s: Communists
1960s: Entrenched Establishment
1970s: Oil Shieks
1980s: Labor Unions
1990s: Smokers and Drunk Drivers
2000s: Al Qaddafi (Architects of the 9/11 attacks)
2010s: Trump and associates
The other thing of note is that I would gleefully go back to labor unions, smokers, drunk drivers as being the greatest problem we’re facing.
You can see the cycles and the crises in there.
It is said that in the crisis we face down the worst problem that a culture faces. This list seems to say that the problem’s nature and severity changes.
I could focus in on the latest crisis. I have the crisis issues as being COVID, the economy, racism, red violence and global warming. In a list with one or two issues per decade, a list that long would stand out. It is true that Trump stands out in his refusal to address these issues, to change the culture. Still, the problems would have existed without him. Well, maybe not the red violence. By reacting to the first black president, by giving the nod to the KKK and Neo Nazi, he brought a long simmering issue to a head again. That issue might well be laid entirely at Trump’s feet, or did he just accelerate it coming to a head?.
RE: Following COVID-19 - David Horn - 02-07-2021
(02-07-2021, 11:31 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(02-05-2021, 11:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:(02-05-2021, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote: We all need a Satan to hate and fear. Trump will do ... for now.
One time I tried to analyze a scapegoat for each decade beginning with the 1950s and I believe this is what I came up with:
1910s (late): the Kaiser and liquor[color=#000000][font=Helvetica]1950s: Communists
1920s: anarchists and radicals, especially the IWW
1930s: economic royalists, then gangsters
1940s: fascists
1960s: Entrenched Establishment
1970s: Oil Shieks
1980s: Labor Unions
1990s: Smokers and Drunk Drivers
2000s: Al Qaddafi (Architects of the 9/11 attacks)
2010s: Trump and associates.
That seems a decent list. I might question the 1960s entry, going against the entrenched establishment. The civil rights movement and tendency to go with hot wars with your containment might be mentioned explicitly.
The other thing of note is that I would gleefully go back to labor unions, smokers, drunk drivers as being the greatest problem we’re facing.
You can see the cycles and the crises in there.
It is said that in the crisis we face down the worst problem that a culture faces. This list seems to say that the problem’s nature and severity changes.
I could focus in on the latest crisis. I have the crisis issues as being COVID, the economy, racism, red violence and global warming. In a list with one or two issues per decade, a list that long would stand out. It is true that Trump stands out in his refusal to address these issues, to change the culture. Still, the problems would have existed without him. Well, maybe not the red violence. By reacting to the first black president, by giving the nod to the KKK and Neo Nazi, he brought a long simmering issue to a head again. That issue might well be laid entirely at Trump’s feet, or did he just accelerate it coming to a head?.
You only missed the huge and growing inequality in society and the mass hysteria that's overcome thinking people -- mostly on the Right. In short, we're eyeball deep in crises, and nearly half of us are working overtime to make them worse.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Bob Butler 54 - 02-07-2021
(02-07-2021, 01:25 PM)David Horn Wrote: You only missed the huge and growing inequality in society and the mass hysteria that's overcome thinking people -- mostly on the Right. In short, we're eyeball deep in crises, and nearly half of us are working overtime to make them worse.
It is hinted at in the list, but you are right to highlight it.
The division of wealth includes tax policy, shipping jobs abroad, limiting unions, cutting wages, cutting benefits, and in general going with a dominant faction that favors the elites. Given the increase in productivity it is something we have done do ourselves. It is a totally unnecessary issue created mostly out of greed with a hefty dose of racism.
It is possible with the crash of the Republican Party we could undo much of it. The path is there to separate the elite influence from the racist votes, but it is way too soon to celebrate.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Eric the Green - 02-07-2021
(02-07-2021, 11:31 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(02-05-2021, 11:00 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:That seems a decent list. I might question the 1960s entry, going against the entrenched establishment. The civil rights movement and tendency to go with hot wars with your containment might be mentioned explicitly.(02-05-2021, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote: We all need a Satan to hate and fear. Trump will do ... for now.One time I tried to analyze a scapegoat for each decade beginning with the 1950s and I believe this is what I came up with:
1910s (late): the Kaiser and liquor
1920s: anarchists and radicals, especially the IWW
1930s: economic royalists, then gangsters
1940s: fascists
1950s: Communists
1960s: Entrenched Establishment
1970s: Oil Shieks
1980s: Labor Unions
1990s: Smokers and Drunk Drivers
2000s: Al Qaddafi (Architects of the 9/11 attacks)
2010s: Trump and associates
The other thing of note is that I would gleefully go back to labor unions, smokers, drunk drivers as being the greatest problem we’re facing.
You can see the cycles and the crises in there.
It is said that in the crisis we face down the worst problem that a culture faces. This list seems to say that the problem’s nature and severity changes.
I could focus in on the latest crisis. I have the crisis issues as being COVID, the economy, racism, red violence and global warming. In a list with one or two issues per decade, a list that long would stand out. It is true that Trump stands out in his refusal to address these issues, to change the culture. Still, the problems would have existed without him. Well, maybe not the red violence. By reacting to the first black president, by giving the nod to the KKK and Neo Nazi, he brought a long simmering issue to a head again. That issue might well be laid entirely at Trump’s feet, or did he just accelerate it coming to a head?.
Scapegoat means blaming targets who are not to blame, but divert attention from the real culprits. A lot of those on this list are real culprits. For the 1980s I would put welfare recipients at the top of the list. I would replace Trump and Associates for the 2010s as a scapegoat (he is a real cause of crisis) with the conspiracy theories and whom they blame. And of course Trump has made black lives matter and antifa into scapegoats. For the 2000s I presume you mean Al Qaeda. A real culprit as well; so with most of the others.
RE: Following COVID-19 - Eric the Green - 02-07-2021
(02-04-2021, 02:22 AM)jleagans Wrote:(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
Also note that some of us also believe its possible the 1T may have just started.
Yes I know
I have heard this from some folks all along. This new 1T never happens, and I don't think it can happen before 2025. And given the cycles I see, 2028-29 seems more likely to me. But things could also go more smoothly after 2025, with battles still simmering. So just like we had a thread in these forums asking if the 4T had started, and when, I suspect there will soon be one here asking when and if the 1T has started yet, and that it will be a question people keep asking for another decade or two.
I see that the famed and much-hoped-for "regeneracy" may have just started, depending on how we define it, but with so much resistance still available to the Republicans, it is a very dicey regeneracy.
RE: Following COVID-19 - David Horn - 02-08-2021
(02-07-2021, 06:19 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(02-04-2021, 02:22 AM)jleagans Wrote:(07-14-2020, 02:36 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: We don't have a major war yet. I wouldn't count that out of the picture just yet in this crisis, which has 9 years to run (not two), even if it's by comparison a smaller war, or two smaller wars.
Also note that some of us also believe its possible the 1T may have just started.
Yes I know
I have heard this from some folks all along. This new 1T never happens, and I don't think it can happen before 2025. And given the cycles I see, 2028-29 seems more likely to me. But things could also go more smoothly after 2025, with battles still simmering. So just like we had a thread in these forums asking if the 4T had started, and when, I suspect there will soon be one here asking when and if the 1T has started yet, and that it will be a question people keep asking for another decade or two.
I see that the famed and much-hoped-for "regeneracy" may have just started, depending on how we define it, but with so much resistance still available to the Republicans, it is a very dicey regeneracy.
This time, 'the war' is political rather than military ... and yes, it is a war. When one side fights hard for near insanity, it mandates that the sane side respond in kind. Perhaps finally, the Democrats have learned that lesson. I hope so.