It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Printable Version

It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Printable Version

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It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - X_4AD_84 - 02-09-2017

Witnessing how Duginists and Bannon have latched onto turning theory, most especially the notion of a 4T Total War, I am now deeming it the weaponization of Generational Theory / Turning Theory.

Similarly, the various totalitarians which Paul R. Johnson labeled "The Monsters" - during the last 4T, latched onto things like Spengler's writings, and proceeded to massively twist and abuse them to their own nefarious ends.

It's only a model - not a play book. Oldtimer

The sad thing is that we will all end up being smeared due to the abuse of these models by crazy people.

Generational Theory could have been so powerful and done so much good.

It's probably too late now to prevent an unfortunate outcome.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Marypoza - 02-09-2017

(02-09-2017, 03:29 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Witnessing how Duginists and Bannon have latched onto turning theory, most especially the notion of a 4T Total War, I am now deeming it the weaponization of Generational Theory / Turning Theory.

Similarly, the various totalitarians which Paul R. Johnson labeled "The Monsters" - during the last 4T, latched onto things like Spengler's writings, and proceeded to massively twist and abuse them to their own nefarious ends.

It's only a model - not a play book.

The sad thing is that we will all end up being smeared due to the abuse of these models by crazy people.

Generational Theory could have been so powerful and done so much good.

It's probably too late now to prevent an unfortunate outcome.

-- that's what l think Bannon is doing. Infact l have even said he's twisting S&H for his own twisted purposes. But nefarious is probably accurate too

But don't give up hope just yet. The Theory may very well survive Bannon. Infact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope Smile

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - SomeGuy - 02-09-2017

Well, we all know you wouldn't want to be associated with crazy people, Alphabet. Think of your reputation!

I can't help but feel, though, that your only issue with Bannon's use of the theory is that he hasn't included Russia on the list of enemy civilizations. I mean, reading the articles about him and the theory recently, other than that the two of you line up pretty nicely. Wink

I mean, you might as well tack on Ruthenia Delenda Est to your sig.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - David Horn - 02-09-2017

(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Marypoza - 02-09-2017

(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

-- ah, sort of like when you watch photons they act differently than when you don't watch them?

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - SomeGuy - 02-09-2017

(02-09-2017, 08:29 PM)Marypoza Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

-- ah, sort of like when you watch photons they act differently than when you don't watch them?

That's not really what the observer effect means.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Warren Dew - 02-10-2017

(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

What makes you think that? The cycle may work irrespective of whether we are aware of it - or may even require some people to be aware of it to work.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Ragnarök_62 - 02-10-2017

(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

So did the theory die when observed or did it live ? Big Grin

Obviously, Bannon opened the box.

Warren Dew Wrote:The cycle may work irrespective of whether we are aware of it - or may even require some people to be aware of it to work.

? We are aware of it. The cat's either dead or alive man, but not in a bag.

[Image: weed-light-effects-smiley-emoticon.gif]

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Marypoza - 02-10-2017

(02-10-2017, 12:50 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

So did the theory die when observed or did it live ? Obviously, Bannon opened the box.

Warren Dew Wrote:The cycle may work irrespective of whether we are aware of it - or may even require some people to be aware of it to work.

? We are aware of it. The cat's either dead or alive man, but not in a bag.

-- Schroedinger. Big Grin

luv your bud btw

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Marypoza - 02-10-2017

(02-10-2017, 12:25 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

What makes you think that? The cycle may work irrespective of whether we are aware of it - or may even require some people to be aware of it to work.

-- yeah, that's what l was thinking. If the theory still works even after somebody's been messing with it, that would validate the theory

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Eric the Green - 02-10-2017

I know it sometimes happens in astrology, that when most people become aware of a cycle, it can lapse. That's what may have happened with the 20-year presidential death-in-office cycle. Of course, the Jupiter-Saturn 20-year cycle still works, but just not in that way apparently. After it became famous with the JFK assassination, a lot more precautions were taken. And that included Nancy Reagan, of course.

It seems like though, with Bannon, he's using it to justify actually bringing on an aspect of the Crisis, as he thinks it should be. So he would validate the theory by acting it out. He may not be the only person in power though, if we're lucky. And perhaps not during the entire rest of the 4T anyway.

There's no doubt that the quantum theory shows that observation changes the behavior of objects. It's not just something to do with the instruments. Materialists like Mr. Someguy don't want to admit that it proves some degree of truth to idealism, and so try to explain it away. But it's there; philosophy already proves it. But that's another debate. Realism, vs. idealism. There's usually some truth to both sides of these questions. But nothing can really be proven to exist, unless it's in someone's mind(s). Consciousness is not an epi-phenomenon; it's basic to existence. Everything exists in our experience of it. And conversely, all experiencing has an object to experience. Subjective and objective are inter-dependent.

So, knowledge of a phenomenon will change it in some way, because we are interacting with it and responding to it. As I understand the quantum theory in this respect, unobserved objects can have many possibilities, and observation collapses those possibilities into one actuality. Of course, since consciousness is everywhere, and focused in many billions upon billions of observers on some level, possibilities are always being collapsed. As we mentioned, no one asked the Cat if she was in the box.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Eric the Green - 02-10-2017

(02-09-2017, 03:29 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Witnessing how Duginists and Bannon have latched onto turning theory, most especially the notion of a 4T Total War, I am now deeming it the weaponization of Generational Theory / Turning Theory.

Similarly, the various totalitarians which Paul R. Johnson labeled "The Monsters" - during the last 4T, latched onto things like Spengler's writings, and proceeded to massively twist and abuse them to their own nefarious ends.

It's only a model - not a play book.

The sad thing is that we will all end up being smeared due to the abuse of these models by crazy people.

Generational Theory could have been so powerful and done so much good.

It's probably too late now to prevent an unfortunate outcome.

Crazy people latching onto a book and acting it out has happened. Consider Chapman and The Catcher in the Rye. Or McVeigh acting out The Turner Diaries. Hinckley and Taxi Driver. Or even Trump with Mein Kampf on his bedside table. So now Bannon with T4T. It happens.
https://atomicpoet.wordpress.com/2012/01/31/is-catcher-in-the-rye-an-assassination-trigger/

Of course, he's not the only politician familiar with the book. Al Gore was another one. But he was cheated out of his turn in the White House. We Boomers could have had two additional good presidents (Gore and Hillary), and instead we got two of the worst ever. I think there are others who know about it.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Marypoza - 02-10-2017

(02-10-2017, 05:00 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:29 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Witnessing how Duginists and Bannon have latched onto turning theory, most especially the notion of a 4T Total War, I am now deeming it the weaponization of Generational Theory / Turning Theory.

Similarly, the various totalitarians which Paul R. Johnson labeled "The Monsters" - during the last 4T, latched onto things like Spengler's writings, and proceeded to massively twist and abuse them to their own nefarious ends.

It's only a model - not a play book.

The sad thing is that we will all end up being smeared due to the abuse of these models by crazy people.

Generational Theory could have been so powerful and done so much good.

It's probably too late now to prevent an unfortunate outcome.

Crazy people latching onto a book and acting it out has happened. Consider Chapman and The Catcher in the Rye. Or McVeigh acting out The Turner Diaries. Hinckley and Taxi Driver. Or even Trump with Mein Kampf on his bedside table. So now Bannon with T4T. It happens.
https://atomicpoet.wordpress.com/2012/01/31/is-catcher-in-the-rye-an-assassination-trigger/

Of course, he's not the only politician familiar with the book. Al Gore was another one. But he was cheated out of his turn in the White House. We Boomers could have had two additional good presidents (Gore and Hillary), and instead we got two of the worst ever. I think there are others who know about it.

-- bringing her up yet again Eric? Bitch was hoisted on her own petard. Get ovah it

I do agree with you that Al Gore would of made a good prez. If nothing else we'd be a good deal closer to getting the oil jones monkey off our collective backs. I have even heard a theory that had Al been prez 911 wouldn't have happened. Unfortunately we'll never know

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - John J. Xenakis - 02-10-2017

Al Gore is a total flake. On a personal level, one of the biggest co2
producers in the world, and he also sold out to al-jazeera for
personal gain. No ethics at all. His Kyoto protocol failed in the
Senate by something like 98-0. Totally worthless, incompetent person.

Anyway, back to the subject. I don't believe that anything the
president does can cause or prevent a world war. The war is most
likely to be triggered by some event like a border war between
Pakistan and India, or a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and
none of those have anything directly to do with somebody having
read the fourth turning.

However, there is an interesting example of a self-fulfilling prophecy
that I've referred to a number of times. Isaiah 17:1-3 predicts the
destruction of Damascus, turning it from a city into "a heap of
ruins." Almost everyone in the Mideast seems to know about this
prophecy, so if anyone ever nukes Damascus, it would be with the
specific purpose and intent of fulfilling the prophecy, which would
make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Eric the Green - 02-10-2017

(02-10-2017, 11:29 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Al Gore is a total flake. On a personal level, one of the biggest co2
producers in the world, and he also sold out to al-jazeera for
personal gain. No ethics at all. His Kyoto protocol failed in the
Senate by something like 98-0. Totally worthless, incompetent person.

None of that is true; Gore would have been a good president.

Quote:Anyway, back to the subject. I don't believe that anything the
president does can cause or prevent a world war. The war is most
likely to be triggered by some event like a border war between
Pakistan and India, or a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and
none of those have anything directly to do with somebody having
read the fourth turning.

These are potential triggers; it still takes the USA president or other major powers to create a world war out of it.

Quote:However, there is an interesting example of a self-fulfilling prophecy
that I've referred to a number of times. Isaiah 17:1-3 predicts the
destruction of Damascus, turning it from a city into "a heap of
ruins." Almost everyone in the Mideast seems to know about this
prophecy, so if anyone ever nukes Damascus, it would be with the
specific purpose and intent of fulfilling the prophecy, which would
make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Assad seems intent on virtually fulfilling the prophecy; we'll see what happens. He's already the worst war criminal since Hitler, Stalin and Pol Pot.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Eric the Green - 02-10-2017

(02-10-2017, 10:37 AM)Marypoza Wrote: -- bringing her up yet [i]again[i/] Eric? Bitch was hoisted on her own petard. Get ovah it

I didn't promise NEVER to mention the would-have-been Lady America. But, no argument.

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - David Horn - 02-11-2017

(02-09-2017, 08:48 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 08:29 PM)Marypoza Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

-- ah, sort of like when you watch photons they act differently than when you don't watch them?

That's not really what the observer effect means.

If you assume there is a method to make those observations that is not totally benign, then the argument holds. Of course, this is a bit different in the social space, because all observation is intrusive by definition ... but isn't that the point?

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - SomeGuy - 02-11-2017

(02-11-2017, 10:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 08:48 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 08:29 PM)Marypoza Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

-- ah, sort of like when you watch photons they act differently than when you don't watch them?

That's not really what the observer effect means.

If you assume there is a method to make those observations that is not totally benign, then the argument holds. Of course, this is a bit different in the social space, because all observation is intrusive by definition ... but isn't that the point?

If Bannon is acting in accordance with a belief in a 4T occurring right now, in what way does that disrupt the cycle, as opposed to making it self-fulfilling, one way or another?

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Mikebert - 02-12-2017

(02-10-2017, 12:50 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 06:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(02-09-2017, 03:38 PM)Marypoza Wrote: ... The Theory may very well survive Bannon. In fact, Bannon could be a test as to its validity

Or who knows.... a few months down the road the Donald could look into Bannon's eyes & say his 2 favorite wds: you're fired
Hey we can hope

OK, except for one of the underlying premises: the cycle works because we are unaware of it, or at least unimpressed enough to ignore it. Bannon mucking about may actually disrupt the normal cycle, assuming (a) one exists, and (b) normalcy is even in the cards.

So did the theory die when observed or did it live ? Obviously, Bannon opened the box.

Warren Dew Wrote:The cycle may work irrespective of whether we are aware of it - or may even require some people to be aware of it to work.

? We are aware of it. The cat's either dead or alive man, but not in a bag.

http://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/the-talk-3

RE: It's a Model, Not Prophecy! - Mikebert - 02-12-2017

(02-09-2017, 03:29 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Witnessing how Duginists and Bannon have latched onto turning theory, most especially the notion of a 4T Total War, I am now deeming it the weaponization of Generational Theory / Turning Theory.

Similarly, the various totalitarians which Paul R. Johnson labeled "The Monsters" - during the last 4T, latched onto things like Spengler's writings, and proceeded to massively twist and abuse them to their own nefarious ends.

It's only a model - not a play book.

The sad thing is that we will all end up being smeared due to the abuse of these models by crazy people.

Generational Theory could have been so powerful and done so much good.

It's probably too late now to prevent an unfortunate outcome.

Well of course it could help serve in a playbook, if it has validity. Any theory of model can potentially be used to achieve an objective. It's what engineers, technicians, businessmen and other "practical people" do.