+- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum)
+-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html)
+--- Forum: Current Events (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-34.html)
+---- Forum: General Political Discussion (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-15.html)
+---- Thread: March 15 will be an important day. (/thread-718.html)
March 15 will be an important day. - Galen - 03-14-2017
I am often surprised at how clueless so many people on this board truly are. March 15 is a very important day because that is when the federal government loses its no limit credit card. David Stockman has written about this and the article is worth reading. No doubt if you have been watching MSM then you missed this.
There are some interesting possibilities that will arise out of this. While Stockman is always worth listening to it is not clear that his interpretation is entirely correct. While I do believe this is a manufactured crisis to some extent the federal government's addiction to debt was always going to end badly. The only question was what event would trigger a debt crisis.
For the moment, lets assume that Stockman's interpretation is correct and the permanent bureaucracy has decided to set Trump up for a fall. Under that interpretation it would have to be assumed that Trump and his appointees are complete idiots. Under this scenario the Dims, consistent with their current behavior, they will oppose any effort to get a debt ceiling through. I don't see the Liberty Caucus for the fiscal conservatives getting behind Ryan. In the senate, now that he isn't running for president, Rand Paul has started acting more like his dad again and so the Republicans in the Senate will probably not fall in line either. By conventional standards a disaster will ensue.
The problem with this interpretation is that with Trump even his mistakes tend to work out which leads me to believe that they are not in fact mistakes. It is far more likely that they are part of an unconventional strategy to an unconventional ending. First, this will give Trump the perfect excuse to get rid of huge chunks of the permanent bureaucracy that has opposed him from day one in a way that I have never seen before. If the Dims continue their current obstruction tactics which they probably will as a form of payback then this puts the fiscal conservatives in a position to force Ryan out or to do their bidding.
One this is certain, the days of business as usual in DC are over. As for the rest only time will tell.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-14-2017
I dunno, we have run into debt ceilings before. Let's hold off and see what actually happens, first.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Galen - 03-14-2017
(03-14-2017, 03:12 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I dunno, we have run into debt ceilings before. Let's hold off and see what actually happens, first.
I am only presenting a couple of possible scenarios. It just that Trump doesn't play the game by the usual rules.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Bob Butler 54 - 03-14-2017
(03-14-2017, 03:14 PM)Galen Wrote:(03-14-2017, 03:12 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I dunno, we have run into debt ceilings before. Let's hold off and see what actually happens, first.
I am only presenting a couple of possible scenarios. It just that Trump doesn't play the game by the usual rules.
Hmm... I don't know that Trump knows the usual rules.
I'm used to debt ceilings contests being run like a game of chicken. One group insists on something greatly partisan or else they'll shut down the government. The other side says go ahead, shoot yourself in the foot, shutting down the government would be a political win for the party that didn't. It's usually as much about public relations and politics as economics.
If Stockman has it right, there are a whole bunch of people who want to take the car off the cliff, and are keeping the existence of the cliff quiet until it is too late to hit the breaks. Not the usual pattern.
I'm not sure there's anyone at the wheel. The GOP Congress is pretty divided, the Democrats want them looking bad. If Stockman has it right, the 'deep state' is deliberately throwing monkey wrenches. From what I've seen of Trump, he'll be more interested, at least at first, in finding someone to blame and throwing a hissy fit than fixing stuff.
What was that Chinese curse? May you live in interesting times?
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Galen - 03-14-2017
(03-14-2017, 03:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(03-14-2017, 03:14 PM)Galen Wrote:(03-14-2017, 03:12 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I dunno, we have run into debt ceilings before. Let's hold off and see what actually happens, first.
I am only presenting a couple of possible scenarios. It just that Trump doesn't play the game by the usual rules.
If Stockman has it right, there are a whole bunch of people who want to take the car off the cliff, and are keeping the existence of the cliff quiet until it is too late to hit the breaks. Not the usual pattern.
Exactly my point. Nothing about this election or results has followed the usual pattern and it is important to remember that the Republican party base is at odds with its elites. That is how they got Trump in the first place. Stockman used to call Boehner the fastest fold in Washington and that was why he is gone. If Hillary had won then I would have expected Ryan to follow the same pattern his predecessor did. Are the fiscal conservatives in the mood to fold after eight years of Obozo? I suspect not. Is Trump OK with their position? That remains to be seen.
Ironically by keeping quiet about this the permanent bureaucracy may have given Trump the perfect chance to put huge swaths of government employees on the bench until the figure out who is boss.
As always, time will tell.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Eric the Green - 03-14-2017
There was a movement for people to write letters of disapproval to Drump on March 15. IF that happens, then yes March 15 will be an important day.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-14-2017
Or perhaps, and this may sound crazy but it's been done before....since the treasury can issue notes bearing interest then surely they can also issue non-interest bearing notes of non-debt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Note
While potentially radical and possibly subject to abuse it would solve the bill paying problem.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-14-2017
Quote:Islamic Finance!
in response to:
Quote:A United States Note, also known as a Legal Tender Note, is a type of paper money that was issued from 1862 to 1971 in the U.S.
Damn that Ibrahim Lincoln!
PS It's worth pointing out (not so much to you, but to non-nutjobs) that Christianity has prohibitions against usury as well. Judaism, too, though apparently that bit of halakhic law apparently only applies within the faith.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-14-2017
Odin is that any way to speak of the first Muslim President?
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Galen - 03-15-2017
(03-14-2017, 06:24 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Or perhaps, and this may sound crazy but it's been done before....since the treasury can issue notes bearing interest then surely they can also issue non-interest bearing notes of non-debt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Note
While potentially radical and possibly subject to abuse it would solve the bill paying problem.
Fiat currency has always been subject to abuse which how the federal government got here. That said, in recent history the practice has been to borrow in the short term until the debt ceiling was raised. Its a bit like the fact that the Social Security Trust fund consists of non-negotiable Treasury Securities.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-15-2017
The problem is letting nature take its course and randomly gutting federal programs and the like would cause chaos. And suddenly introducing sound money would do the same.
More to the point, I was saying that if the treasury can issue notes of debt, the treasury can also issue notes of non-debt. Might need Congress to go a long with it. And it would be a stop gap measure. But I can see how a refusal to raise the debt ceiling might over time kill the Fed. And I'd love nothing more than to KILL THE BANK.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-15-2017
(03-14-2017, 10:07 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Odin is that any way to speak of the first Muslim President?
Odin?
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - The Wonkette - 03-15-2017
(03-14-2017, 03:12 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I dunno, we have run into debt ceilings before. Let's hold off and see what actually happens, first.The Government will take "extraordinary steps" to keep everything running until early summer, when those tricks won't work anymore. As SomeGuy has said, we've done this song and dance.
April 18 will be when things start to get interesting, because the Government's Continuing Resolution expires. So Congress will have to figure out at what level to fund the Government prior to that; otherwise, it is 2013 all over again (Government shutdown) until they get some kind of spending bill out. Once they figure that out, they'll also have to decide whether or not to raise the debt ceiling this summer.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-15-2017
(03-15-2017, 08:45 AM)SomeGuy Wrote:(03-14-2017, 10:07 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: Odin is that any way to speak of the first Muslim President?
Odin?
Of course not. Ibrahim Lincoln silly
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-15-2017
Quote:
Odin hasn't posted in this thread.
Quote:Of course not. Ibrahim Lincoln silly
You sure it wasn't Tauma Al-Jefferson? I believe Congressman Ellison took the oath of office using his personal Quran. That or a copy of Lenin's What Is To Be Done, I forget which.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-15-2017
(03-15-2017, 01:07 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:
Odin hasn't posted in this thread.
Quote:Of course not. Ibrahim Lincoln silly
You sure it wasn't Tauma Al-Jefferson? I believe Congressman Ellison took the oath of office using his personal Quran. That or a copy of Lenin's What Is To Be Done, I forget which.
Shit... I was confusing you with Odin for some reason. Probably a brain fart. 2300 EDT is pretty late for me as I usually get up around 0330.
Ellison used a Quran. But he may as well have used a copy of well anything Lenin wrote.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-15-2017
Quote:Shit... I was confusing you with Odin for some reason. Probably a brain fart. 2300 EDT is pretty late for me as I usually get up around 0330.
Yes, and I was letting you know that I was offended... Which, admittedly, is probably not helping you tell who's who.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-15-2017
(03-15-2017, 01:32 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:Quote:Shit... I was confusing you with Odin for some reason. Probably a brain fart. 2300 EDT is pretty late for me as I usually get up around 0330.
Yes, and I was letting you know that I was offended... Which, admittedly, is probably not helping you tell who's who.
No it did not help. Odin is perpetually offended. I apologize if I've offended you by calling you Odin. At least I didn't call you Eric.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - SomeGuy - 03-15-2017
(03-15-2017, 02:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Welp ... no more QE for now.
Rates are going up, not down.
Should be an interesting ride.
RE: March 15 will be an important day. - Kinser79 - 03-15-2017
(03-15-2017, 02:18 PM)SomeGuy Wrote:(03-15-2017, 02:14 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Welp ... no more QE for now.
Rates are going up, not down.
Should be an interesting ride.
Its a quarter point. Considering how low and how long interest rates have been it's about time. It might move some of that QE cash out of the stock market and into the real economy. I'm more interested though in the other 15 March event, the Dutch Election. It could spell the prelude of the other 2017 elections in Europe (France and Germany).