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    Thread: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump
Post: RE: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability...

(11-12-2020, 03:29 PM)sbarrera Wrote: (11-12-2020, 02:32 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: (11-12-2020, 01:30 PM)User3451 Wrote: It's interesting that these threads on Turchin have gone silent, given tha...
TeacherinExile Peter Turchin's Theroies 21 19,683 11-12-2020, 06:45 PM
    Thread: Neil Howe In The News
Post: RE: Neil Howe In The News

(11-12-2020, 09:51 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Worth highlighting this video with Neil Howe [Video: https://youtu.be/Qj5w7BimQJo] Some points where I agree. I have said to folks like Teejay who disag...
TeacherinExile Neil Howe & The First Turning 48 38,762 11-12-2020, 05:38 PM
    Thread: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump
Post: RE: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability...

(11-12-2020, 01:30 PM)User3451 Wrote: It's interesting that these threads on Turchin have gone silent, given that he's been extremely accurate in his predictions. I've seen some thought here and e...
TeacherinExile Peter Turchin's Theroies 21 19,683 11-12-2020, 02:32 PM
    Thread: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump
Post: RE: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability...

(09-11-2020, 04:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: (09-10-2020, 04:14 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Their approach is distinctly quantitative Any chance you could provide something referencing actual numbers, th...
TeacherinExile Peter Turchin's Theroies 21 19,683 11-12-2020, 02:19 PM
    Thread: Neil Howe In The News
Post: RE: Neil Howe In The News

Some recent insights into Neil Howe’s thinking about the Fourth Turning: U.S. faces a potential ‘secession crisis’ at home and ‘open conflict’ with China in the coming decade, says author who predict...
TeacherinExile Neil Howe & The First Turning 48 38,762 11-11-2020, 10:57 AM
    Thread: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump
Post: RE: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability...

It was tempting to post this “reply” under the Age of Disorder thread that I recently created. However, I have taken much interest in Jack Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, as rigorously applied by P...
TeacherinExile Peter Turchin's Theroies 21 19,683 09-10-2020, 04:14 PM
    Thread: Age of Disorder
Post: RE: Age of Disorder

(09-09-2020, 12:51 PM)David Horn Wrote: Bang-on in my opinion.  The only issues are when and how.  The time may still be in the future, though not the distant future, and how is up to the rest of us...
TeacherinExile The Millennial Generation 29 15,851 09-09-2020, 02:34 PM
    Thread: Age of Disorder
Post: Age of Disorder

I couldn’t resist posting this new thread based on related articles published today. They have some relevance to Fourth Turning theory, in general, and to intergenerational conflict, in particular: M...
TeacherinExile The Millennial Generation 29 15,851 09-09-2020, 11:48 AM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-07-2020, 02:43 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (08-07-2020, 02:17 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I think back to the Weather Underground in the Sixties setting off bombs everywhere, even on a college campus...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-07-2020, 07:34 PM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-07-2020, 11:22 AM)David Horn Wrote: (08-06-2020, 05:12 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I have weighed the possibility of a Second Civil War in the past, for obvious reasons. But the more I pondered h...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-07-2020, 02:17 PM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-06-2020, 03:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (08-05-2020, 12:09 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: (08-05-2020, 09:55 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: As for new values, the New Deal had very broad appeal becau...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-06-2020, 05:12 PM
    Thread: Election 2020
Post: RE: Election 2020

(08-05-2020, 11:43 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: (07-30-2020, 08:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP has Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud.  CNN has it as well. We have been sort...
TeacherinExile General Political Discussion 1,249 287,377 08-06-2020, 02:23 PM
    Thread: Goodbye, "3 1/2 T"
Post: RE: Goodbye, "3 1/2 T"

(08-06-2020, 09:08 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (08-05-2020, 11:11 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: But before I could deem 9/11 as the beginning of a crisis era, I would have to read an analysis that makes a ...
TeacherinExile Turnings 12 6,040 08-06-2020, 11:27 AM
    Thread: Election 2020
Post: RE: Election 2020

(07-30-2020, 08:41 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The AP has Trump floats election ‘delay’ amid claims of voting fraud.  CNN has it as well. We have been sort of waiting for an attempt by Trump to extend ...
TeacherinExile General Political Discussion 1,249 287,377 08-05-2020, 11:43 PM
    Thread: 2020 Predictions
Post: RE: 2020 Predictions

And this news just in: Biden will beat Trump, says historian who has predicted every presidential race since 1984. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=...P9s1f_2EF9
TeacherinExile General Political Discussion 67 23,500 08-05-2020, 03:12 PM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-05-2020, 09:55 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: As for new values, the New Deal had very broad appeal because it aimed to improve the economic lot of a multitude.  There was no regional emphasis. Th...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-05-2020, 12:09 PM
    Thread: Goodbye, "3 1/2 T"
Post: RE: Goodbye, "3 1/2 T"

Anthony ‘58: Thank you so much for posting this article, in full, and I’ll tell you why.  First, the writer has the “lived experience” of that awful, tragic day.  It’s one thing to watch TV replays o...
TeacherinExile Turnings 12 6,040 08-05-2020, 11:11 AM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-03-2020, 09:07 PM)RadianMay Wrote: (08-03-2020, 05:19 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: What attracted you to S&H theory in the first place? What doubts do you have about the theory, with respec...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-04-2020, 02:56 PM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-04-2020, 09:11 AM)David Horn Wrote: (08-03-2020, 08:57 PM)RadianMay Wrote: Thus, I do believe that 2008 is clearly not a trigger on the level of the 1929 Depression. If anything, it brought ev...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-04-2020, 11:02 AM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-03-2020, 04:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote: A very simple way to put the saeculum is during a 4T a new order is formed.  This order works well for a time and then runs into difficulty when it encounters i...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-03-2020, 05:19 PM
    Thread: Neil Howe In The News
Post: RE: Neil Howe In The News

(08-03-2020, 10:19 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis er...
TeacherinExile Neil Howe & The First Turning 48 38,762 08-03-2020, 10:59 AM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

Mike, Bob and David...kudos all! Again, none of you need a handclap from me, but the kind of detailed feedback you have just provided gives me much to ponder.  I’m sure others on this forum will weigh...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-03-2020, 10:47 AM
    Thread: Neil Howe In The News
Post: RE: Neil Howe In The News

David, you’re probably right about the First Turning focus.  However, Howe—and I, for what it’s worth—peg the potential endpoint for the turning crisis era—at 2030.  That’s a full decade away, and wit...
TeacherinExile Neil Howe & The First Turning 48 38,762 08-03-2020, 10:19 AM
    Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008
Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ...

(08-02-2020, 09:21 PM)Mikebert Wrote: (07-31-2020, 02:35 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: (07-31-2020, 02:17 PM)Mikebert Wrote: (07-30-2020, 07:29 PM)RadianMay Wrote: Perhaps. I’ve given the thought t...
TeacherinExile Turnings 326 128,797 08-03-2020, 02:01 AM
    Thread: Neil Howe In The News
Post: RE: Neil Howe In The News

(08-02-2020, 04:53 PM)sbarrera Wrote: (08-01-2020, 06:40 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Neil Howe just made an announcement on his Twitter account yesterday: https://twitter.com/HoweGeneration/status/1...
TeacherinExile Neil Howe & The First Turning 48 38,762 08-02-2020, 06:01 PM