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Post			Author	Forum	Replies	Views	Posted [asc]
		Thread: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability after Trump Post: RE: Peter Turchin: Entering the Age of Instability... New post. This one on the current social moment in sociocultural terms https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/cyc...calization	Mikebert	Peter Turchin's Theroies	21	19,802	02-27-2023, 08:21 PM
		Thread: The Log Cabin Libertarians? Post: RE: The Log Cabin Libertarians? I cannot remember whether I posted this here. I have written a book about our current crisis. It is the result of 25 years of inquiry. Although heavily influenced by S&H, I ultimately rejected the...	Mikebert	Society and Culture	21	4,541	04-20-2022, 06:18 PM
		Thread: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? Post: RE: Is It "Just Me," or Are We STILL in a 3T? (11-14-2021, 04:27 PM)galaxy Wrote: We are not in a 37-year turning. 2008-2020 was a bit of an ambiguous period, but now we are *definitely* in a 4T. I guess it's a bit of a division like the 3T b...	Mikebert	Turnings	48	13,913	02-08-2022, 05:48 PM
		Thread: Who else would like politics to be humdrum? Post: RE: Who else would like politics to be humdrum? (02-04-2022, 10:20 AM)David Horn Wrote: The real problem is a VR World, and it's coming.  VR was shown quite vividly in the movie Ready Player One.  VR World can be anything we can imagine, and livi...	Mikebert	Theory Related Political Discussions	50	11,800	02-08-2022, 05:07 PM
		Thread: Crisis in America (new book) Post: RE: Crisis in America (new book) So I think the S&H theory has been invalidated. I now employ Peter Turchin's secular cycle for periodization. His cycle also has four periods: growth (1942-73), stagnation (1973-2006), crisis (200...	Mikebert	Theories Of History	4	1,569	02-08-2022, 05:03 PM
		Thread: Crisis in America (new book) Post: Crisis in America (new book) Over the last two years I wrote a book about the current crisis in America. Here is a pdf of the manuscript. https://mikebert.neocities.org/America-in-crisis.pdf I use a secular cycle framework rath...	Mikebert	Theories Of History	4	1,569	02-08-2022, 04:38 PM
		Thread: The Partisan Divide on Issues Post: RE: The Partisan Divide on Issues (09-16-2020, 12:16 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: (09-15-2020, 11:33 AM)Mikebert Wrote: (09-09-2020, 01:57 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: That's what you thought but you still had to ask? Well, I'd still leave yo...	Mikebert	General Political Discussion	3,142	997,842	09-18-2020, 12:09 PM
		Thread: The Partisan Divide on Issues Post: RE: The Partisan Divide on Issues (09-09-2020, 01:57 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: That's what you thought but you still had to ask? Well, I'd still leave you hanging from a limb and I'd still leave you to fend for yourself or leave you to ...	Mikebert	General Political Discussion	3,142	997,842	09-15-2020, 11:33 AM
		Thread: The Partisan Divide on Issues Post: RE: The Partisan Divide on Issues (09-07-2020, 11:16 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Dude, I've never had an interest in your personal property, your personal income/ wealth or your family related issues that may grow beyond family related  a...	Mikebert	General Political Discussion	3,142	997,842	09-08-2020, 12:41 PM
		Thread: The Partisan Divide on Issues Post: RE: The Partisan Divide on Issues (08-30-2020, 05:43 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Did you know that its illegal to protect your property in Minneapolis or confront someone who is stealing your stuff in Minneapolis? You have rights, I have ...	Mikebert	General Political Discussion	3,142	997,842	09-07-2020, 08:46 AM
		Thread: The Partisan Divide on Issues Post: RE: The Partisan Divide on Issues (08-29-2020, 12:18 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: You better think harder than you normally do  because you're response may determine whether you live or die because it's pretty clear that it's my group who ...	Mikebert	General Political Discussion	3,142	997,842	08-30-2020, 04:05 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-17-2020, 10:30 AM)David Horn Wrote: But eventually, the youth will have had enough.  It may take a decade or two (what could be the 2T in the S&H cycle), but the longer it takes to get there...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-20-2020, 01:45 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-16-2020, 10:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (08-16-2020, 03:03 PM)Mikebert Wrote: 4. External conquest or at least invasion. Robert Butler has dealt with this one, so this is out. Should I go look...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-20-2020, 01:35 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-07-2020, 02:17 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: I know, I know...you and Eric are talking about an internal war (civil, guerilla or otherwise), not an external conflict.  True, a guerilla war is asymmet...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-16-2020, 03:03 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-07-2020, 03:51 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: History has operated by slightly-different rules in the Industrial Age than in the Agrarian Age, and may operate differently in the post-Industrial age. True ...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-08-2020, 10:50 AM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-04-2020, 03:23 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (08-03-2020, 04:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote: The Armada doesn't even look like a 4T.  Have you ever seen anyone use examples from THAT crisis to illustrate 4T i...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-08-2020, 09:48 AM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... Bob Butler 54I did call trigger on COVID 19 fairly early.  A big part of red ethics was small government, low taxes, ignore the science and ignore all problems.  But its not. That's just their schtic...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-03-2020, 06:57 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... A very simple way to put the saeculum is during a 4T a new order is formed.  This order works well for a time and then runs into difficulty when it encounters issues in the 2T that were not salient wh...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-03-2020, 04:16 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (08-03-2020, 02:01 AM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Mikebert: So I have a question for you, and I pose it with all due respect because I have read your posts over the years with more than a little interest,...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-03-2020, 07:58 AM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-31-2020, 02:35 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: (07-31-2020, 02:17 PM)Mikebert Wrote: (07-30-2020, 07:29 PM)RadianMay Wrote: Perhaps. I’ve given the thought that this Crisis might have started in 20...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	08-02-2020, 09:21 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-30-2020, 07:29 PM)RadianMay Wrote: Perhaps. I’ve given the thought that this Crisis might have started in 2017 perhaps with Trump’s rise to presidency. That could have been the event that passed...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	07-31-2020, 02:17 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-28-2020, 12:26 PM)Einzige Wrote: Now, we did get a lot of physical infrastructure out of the last High - the Interstate Highway System, NASA, etc. Did we get much in the way of social infrastru...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	07-28-2020, 01:16 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-26-2020, 09:47 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: A solid case for the most dominate issue of the 1932 political campaign was not the 1929 market crash, but rather repeal of the 18th Amendment. Kinda destroys ...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	07-27-2020, 08:37 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-24-2020, 09:38 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Clearly, you have more political revolutions and critical elections that S&H proposed crises.  Not all of them can be crises. They aren't. Critical ele...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	07-25-2020, 06:05 PM
		Thread: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008 Post: RE: I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in ... (07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally! Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted. Also I...	Mikebert	Turnings	326	129,400	07-24-2020, 06:20 AM

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