skipped an archetype like time before last?

[Mikebert]

(04-19-2019, 02:45 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(04-18-2019, 07:26 PM)Mikebert Wrote: See my latest post on the Is the generational theory valid? thread for my response to this question.

http://generational-theory.com/forum/thr...l#pid42555

Hindsight.

I see it as, try to look at the moods.  The moods always make clearer the location in a bracket.  I cannot help looking at the MSD shooting and what happened after.  Compare to Columbine, same event.  The Hero exists, I don't know what bracket this is tho.  The MSD people said "how dare anyone kill these children?!"  While, with Columbine, it was a rancid, confused cult of The Matrix boys/men dressing up as Hollywood idols killing each other.  I don't feel like anyone really cared about the victims.  Clear shift from X to Mill.

So, those people are 20s now... they may even be cusp Artists.  Demanding Green New Deal, don't care who does it so long as it gets done.  Current president is their worst nightmare and definitely the scenario of a far-in 4th Turning (I think) when the text describes what happens right at the Turning..... the red-faced Boomers descend into madness and their leader makes one last half-cocked move to destroy Earth while quickly handing the mess over to the X ascendent with the Millennials waiting eagerly to move forward.

no?

Yes. The Columbine event involved 1981 cohorts, the very beginning of millennials.  You compare the mood of the time with the MSD event, which involved 2000 cohorts, suggesting the latter, but not the former would be millennials.

S&H noted things like Scouting, which became popular in the 1910's (the Troop I was in started c 1918). So we are talking about kids born in the first decade of the 20th century being involved.  And then there was the great divider of WW I, those too young to have fought in the that war were of a different generation than those (Lost) who did fight.  From this they cam up with their 1901 divider.

Your school shooting indicator suggests a GenX/Millie divider closer to 2000 and 1981. It is consistent with my thesis.

[Eric the Green]

(04-24-2019, 03:21 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(04-24-2019, 01:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-23-2019, 07:42 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(04-23-2019, 04:08 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-22-2019, 10:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nothing was skipped in the 20th century. The hero generation that came of age during the civil war was skipped, according to S&H. The nomad Gilded generation was followed by the adaptive/artist Progressives.

Many of us find the missed generation during the ACW an unnecessary manipulation needed to make other less important timings work.  I think yours or Mike Alexander's proposed generational map with no missing gens is the right way to attack this.   If all gens are present, the crisis has to take a different shape, but either an early start or late finish can be accommodated better than the missed gen.

Arguably this crisis took place too early. It could be argued that the crisis really started in 2001 from September 11th.

Arguable?  Yes, but not a triggering event in the normal sense.  We weren't generationally aligned or emotionally ready for a trigger, so we simply didn't react in the normal 4T manner.  Instead, we went into a 4T anguish wrapped in a 3T cocoon: a lot of sound and fury, but nothing focused on solving anything.  It's equally arguable, that we're still there.  Perhaps the threat was and still is not great enough to force our hands, so we have factional obsessions with a long list of grievances, most of which are valid to some extent.  What's lacking is any plan to constructively address them or even the will to try.  It's easier to bitch about it.  


2020 may be more of the same, or a real attempt to fix things.  We'll see.  I'm less than sanguine.

People did try to solve it but in the wrong way. People were really big on this war on terror where we would change these countries and give them democracy by knocking down their governments and invading their countries creating a power vacuum for ISIS to appear. The action of the 00s was all focused on changing these countries and giving them democracy. People thought invading these countries would save them from terrorism worldwide. I would argue 9/11 was the beginning of the 4T in some ways.

I don't argue that, but terrorism is certainly one of the elements of our current crisis, though not the main one. Like everything else though its origins go back earlier, and a lot of issues we deal with today and the factions that divide us today (the essence of our 4T) go back to the start of the 2T in 1964.

People were "big" on the wars intially, but quickly soured on them (especially the unnecessary war in Iraq), dividing the country again as it has often been since the 2T began.

Saying that people did try to solve our grievances by going to war in the Muslim world seems a strange statement. Since most of our problems and grievances are domestic, it was not only the wrong way, but way off target and not an attempt to solve anything except to fight back after the 9-11 attack.

[Eric the Green]

(04-24-2019, 01:35 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-23-2019, 07:42 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(04-23-2019, 04:08 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-22-2019, 10:04 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Nothing was skipped in the 20th century. The hero generation that came of age during the civil war was skipped, according to S&H. The nomad Gilded generation was followed by the adaptive/artist Progressives.

Many of us find the missed generation during the ACW an unnecessary manipulation needed to make other less important timings work.  I think yours or Mike Alexander's proposed generational map with no missing gens is the right way to attack this.   If all gens are present, the crisis has to take a different shape, but either an early start or late finish can be accommodated better than the missed gen.

Arguably this crisis took place too early. It could be argued that the crisis really started in 2001 from September 11th.

Arguable?  Yes, but not a triggering event in the normal sense.  We weren't generationally aligned or emotionally ready for a trigger, so we simply didn't react in the normal 4T manner.  Instead, we went into a 4T anguish wrapped in a 3T cocoon: a lot of sound and fury, but nothing focused on solving anything.  It's equally arguable, that we're still there.  Perhaps the threat was and still is not great enough to force our hands, so we have factional obsessions with a long list of grievances, most of which are valid to some extent.  What's lacking is any plan to constructively address them or even the will to try.  It's easier to bitch about it.  


2020 may be more of the same, or a real attempt to fix things.  We'll see.  I'm less than sanguine.

There is abundant basis for feeling less than sanguine about the 2020s. Some even say it will be the beginning of the irreversible end of the USA, or for the world of human civilization.

I see hope in the evident regeneration Obama talked about in his speech to the Illinois students. There is a rising up now, stimulated by Trump and the rebirth of racism and xenophobia, climate change, inequality and economic challenges and rampant gun violence. The millennials are growing in power and they are more diverse and more aware of the possibilities and threats to the future.

Using my cosmic crystal ball, I have long forecasted the 2020s will be a progressive decade. And it will get more progressive and radical as it goes along. The crisis problems will be engaged and the battles joined. Every 20 years, the two great chronocraters Jupiter and Saturn make a conjunction, and you can see the different directions which each new 20 year period and even each decade take. Each decade begins in our age with such a conjunction or opposition between these planets. After 3 conjunctions (60 years) they return to the same sign, a bit further in. This one in Dec.2020 will be a recurrance of the ones in 1961, 1901, 1842 and 1782. These were the start of the most progressive decades, including the one that gave the term its meaning. Half way between these is the Saturn Return cycle of 30 years, which Schlesinger noticed, and which was also meaningful for the 1930s and 1990s.

In addition, there are manifold other indicators. When a planet returns to its original place in a chart, it brings back the original nature of what was born then, and similar impulses and challenges return. A cycle is being completed, bringing back a recurrance of events. The 2020s is a major such return cycle for the United States. As you know, the Uranus Return cycle has coincided with crisis climaxes and the birth and rebirths of the American nation very closely, since the Jamestown colony was established. The next exact date for the Uranus Return is 2027. The Uranus Return was spoken of eloquently by Lincoln when he referred to four score and seven years ago in 1863. That was 3 years after the Uranus Return, which comes every 84 years or so. That is also the saeculum cycle in modern times, because Uranus' cycle indicates the normal length of a human life. It is also the symbol of our modern revolutionary era, which began with its discovery in 1781, the year American won its independence. FDR also spoke of this cycle in his speech about his generation having a rendevous with destiny.

But Pluto makes its first cyclic return since then as well, and even sooner, since 3 cycles of Uranus takes a little longer than one cycle of Pluto. That comes in 2022. Neptune makes a return and a half also in 2022, and then makes a return to its position in 1861 at the start of the civil war (a Uranus Return time also) at the cusp (0 degrees Aries) of a new cycle through the zodiac in 2025-26. The three planets have a 1-2-3 time relationship in the length of their orbits, all confirming the saeculum length.

The sign Aquarius can indicate sudden and shocking change, reform, or revolution, and in increase in humanitarian concern and technological progress. The 2020 Jupiter-Saturn conjunction will be the first one in Aquarius in 800 years. Pluto enters Aquarius, where it last was during the French Revolution, in 2024. The three planets form a 60/120 degree angle to each other during the decade. These are even not the only signs of a progressive decade, one in which the USA faces a challenge to its existence, and must fight for progressive change or die, just like in every previous fourth turning.

So, every fourth turning fan and reader should take heed, and for now at least take heart, from these cosmic signs that so well coincide with S&H's original descriptions of the saeculum cycle, and what it portends for the 2020s.

[Mikebert]

What happened to the Is the generational theory valid? thread?

[Eric the Green]

Good question

[pbrower2a]

There has yet to be an apocalyptic event to scar most of the world as did the Second World War, no national apocalypse on the scale of the American Civil War in America, and no fundamental change in the form or structure of government as between "Lexington and Concord" and the ratification of the Constitution. Except that the Silent Generation has been hanging on longer than is usual for an Adaptive Generation (or any generation, but I associate that with the Silent adopting the good late-in-life habits of the GI Generation -- staying physically and mentally active), the generations have been in place without being knocked out or usurping roles associated with the younger archetype (such as the Gilded taking on most Civic roles after the Civil War).

The current Silent are the last who can have any role of leadership -- even if we end up with President Biden or President Sanders. I am tempted to believe that the worst, Trump-like Boomers will either be discredited and cast off onto the reject pile -- or they will fully consolidate power and establish a high-tech version of feudalism in which 95% of the people suffer for 2% in which economic and administrative roles pass down in a hereditary manner.

[TheNomad]

(04-24-2019, 03:21 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote: I would argue 9/11 was the beginning of the 4T in some ways.

I've been thinking this forever.  Every time I post that here, most do not agree. 

When I look at the last 4th Turning, the economic part happened a full decade before the war part.  At least, the way America experienced it.  What is to say the reverse cannot be true? 

It also seems like the post-911 America and the changes that came from that event and the wars after are down-played by others who do not see 911 as a part of a genuine 4th Turning.  They have said it was too "early" and things did not change substantially enough in America to warrant that being part of the Turning.

I think this attitude comes from those who were fully adults at that time (2001 and the 00s) who maybe are just not ready to see that event for what it was and how much it changed America, our values, our privacy, our willingness to let freedoms be compromised by said opening of privacies for the sake of said security... and the idea that Millennials WERE the ones who actually fought in the post 911 wars (just as the scenario plays out w S&H theory).  Pick a magic number, 1984.  2002 is the 18yo person graduating from HS entering the military in 2002 - the start of the 911 Wars which lasted at least a decade.  During that time, we had financial collapse and now the word "Crisis" is in every headline of every event in America about everything.

Climate
Immigration
Financial (tho not discussed openly anymore, pretending it's over)
Homeless
Affordable Housing
Race Issues
#MeToo
Lack Of Jobs
Fair Wages
Corps Pay No Tax
Constitutional Crisis over Branches of Govt and Power/Accountability

on and on, we are in the Crisis.  It's just about narrowing WHEN in the Crisis.

It is a mistake to think 911 was not in the Crisis bracket.  Everything changed in America after that.  The only people who don't know that were too young when it happened to know the difference.  Or, too old to not be able to admit the difference.

[TheNomad]

(04-20-2019, 06:09 PM)AspieMillennia Wrote: Of course it's possible. The mainstream music culture is so bad today that people are doing anything they can to opt out of it. A popular saying now is "There's more great music around than in any other time period. You just have to look for it." They say things like "Top 100 is supposed to be shit. The good stuff is underground." Mainstream radio for determining music taste is dead.

The "Civic" generation are supposed to be a fully-branded conglomerate who conform and coagulate.  Isn't it right that the so-called "beats" or pre-hippie were as you describe?  Sitting around in the "dark" looking for the underground stuff because the pop stuff was just too boring? 

I would love for this to be the case.  To me, it does not fit the time frame.  Could it be, this is your opinion (respectfully) but not really the actuality?  I personally do not see people of that age range being hungry for the underground.  Not in their fashion sense, not in any search for the obscure or strange, not in any way seeking to navigate outside the "norm".  10 years ago, pirating media was a big thing.  Now, people of that age range do not even know how to pirate.  I suspect mostly because the idea of apps have cut them off from that knowledge.  I'm not sure folks of that age know how a computer really works.  They know how to work IT, but don't know how to make it work for THEM.

I see many who are bored with the era and the same-same nonsense, but I see no real reaction to it.  I keep mentioning piracy because it was the X way to frak the system, to not have to subscribe to HBO just to see GOT or any service that already costs too much.  To purchase media of any kind..... OR PROGRAMS!  But who needs programs now?  Does anyone under the age of 25 even know how to install a program, let alone pluck it freely from the cloud with a crack?  Conformity is huge right now, that doesn't mean they aren't bored.  I see the S&H phenomenon playing out quite clearly in this Mill generation, who (I keep coming back to this stuff) paying GLADLY for streaming services because they are afraid of the nasty note from service providers.  And, to be quite honest, are happy to be able to pay for the service because to them it somehow means STATUS and being like everyone else in the herd.

Also, the Mill generation is now obsessed with the banning of information.  EVEN though they either don't know or care that big tech corps are selling ALL their information behind the scenes.  However, I use one example which struck me recently... Avengers Endgame.

If anyone here is a total nerdgeek, there are many youtube personalities that began speculating about that movie since Infinity War ended last year.  As the release of Endgame got closer, those personalities began closing down the comments section to protect against spoilers.

Then, spoilers of the movie leaked online, and those same people (mostly all Millennilals) decried the idea that information EXISTED.  If anyone paid attention, the personas told users to "report anyone you see posting spoilers, report their accounts, get rid of them".

Instead of policing themselves, instead of the idea "if you don't want spoilers, DONT LOOK" they took the opposing view of "THAT INFORMATION SHOULD NOT EXIST because I might encounter it by accident".

It may sound foolish, but in that is a huge indicator.  The willingness to block information of any kind.................. even movie spoilers........ is a bad sign post.  The Groupthink decided it was not OK for that information to exist, so they (had they the power themselves) would have banished and even punished anyone who made said information available.

I only have to make the jump to Assange to show how over even the last decade, INFORMATION ITSELF has become an enemy.  Some said Assange was a hero because he made INFORMATION available.  Now, people like him are tossed out to the lions because our collective view of INFORMATION has changed so dramatically. 

We are now in a time-shift when we are all becoming so collectively terrified of all the Crises we will do ANYTHING to stay in our suppressed bubble.  To stay "safe" from all the perils going on.  That may not be totally a bad thing, but a THING nonetheless.

[Tim Randal Walker]

I suspect that, in the long run, historians will use Sept. 11 as the start of the 4T. It is dramatic, it is sharply defined.

In the paleo site there was the Phony Fourth thread. If Sept. 11 was a phony 4th, it was a phony 4th that led into the actual 4th.

[TheNomad]

(04-27-2019, 06:36 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: I suspect that, in the long run, historians will use Sept. 11 as the start of the 4T.  It is dramatic, it is sharply defined.

In the paleo site there was the Phony Fourth thread.  If Sept.  11 was a phony 4th, it was a phony 4th that led into the actual 4th.

What is "phony" in that scenario?  Not sure I understand.

I've got better handle on the archetypes than the turnings.. I'd love to learn more, please anyone hold refresher(s)!

So, archetype-wise, isn't it correct.......:

Prophet = 1946(?) - 1962(?) = 16yrs (the authors really nailed this one in terms of defining almost To The Day references as to when the Child Boom began and ended: birth rates rise at end of WWII and end with Kennedy.  Numbers don't lie).  
Nomad = 1963(?) - 1982(?) = 19yrs (The authors have borne this out anecdotally in the way it began to become negative to have children present in public Contrasted with car signs "Baby On Board" signaling a dramatic shift).
Millennial = 1983(?) - 2005(?) = 22yrs (this one is still in question but looking more firm all the time... Hero's End, so to speak, is hard to identify since Artist (to me) doesn't look too much different from Hero in a lot of ways defined by S&H).
Artist = 2006(?) - 2026??  = 20yrs  (still in valid question).

When 4T was written, the predicted brackets were very close to this but they did change over the course of 2 decades later.  But not by very much.

Do these brackets suit ppl?  It works for you?

So how to we lay down the Turnings over these dates?

If 911 2001 is actual beginning of 4T, then it must be a longer-than-20yr-cycle.  I say that because I cannot envision the clouds parting next year and a new beginning falling out of that cloud.  Do we need a different president to SIGNAL that?  What if the voting time comes and it's a brand new candidate and they win?  Would just that winning of someone totally new and different cause us who are watching to say "omg OK this really is the tail end of the 4T".

I think I would ^^.  Even if that was the only "change" that happened.  Because to me that would mean a change of process has been achieved, the ppl involved will be more open to transformation, etc.  However, conversely, if the 2020 presidential election in America fails to elect a different person, it would cause me to gravely question where in the 4T bracket we are at all.  Whether it's almost done or still in initial throes.  The latter would just suck horribly.  

The word "Crisis" is everywhere with so many subjects in the news.  4T is no doubt, just WHEN inside the cycle are we now and how much time is left on that until signs of a 1T.

Gotta say also, there seems to be "cult-like" opinions about the 4T "......ooo we are still waiting on Thanos to drop his bombs and then the 4T can move forward as it' supposed to".  Like, they are waiting on that as a strong indicator.  But that's not always true.  S&H talk about general ideas that Winter is coming........ you cannot avoid it........... it may be short and gentle or hostile and devastating - but it's coming, get ready.

I have to say if such devastation will happen, has it got much more time to manifest?  One of the indicators from S&H about the 4T wars "to come" (according to them from the mid 90s):

Decided by Prophets via a form of ideology with enemy
Fought by Heroes who don't question them
Maintained by Nomads (who don't care one way or the other, just want it to be over)
Survived by Artists (sheltered by adults during the Crisis who come out the other side with huge support)

As above, the ARTIST is reaching late teens in age en masse.  They have been being born since before the Financial Depression, they do not know a pre-911 America or that before, Americans didn't get molested by Security Forces in airports, etc.  Artists are now facing all the blackhead pimples rising in America since the Crisis became.  They have been protected thoroughly through the whole thing (for the most part). 

So many parts of S&H ideology fit in this scenario..

[pbrower2a]

Maybe this 4T will be benign in avoiding a military apocalypse (anyone with a shred of conscience dreads nuclear weapons), at least in the First World. It could culminate in positive reforms and in cultural change more than in invasions and genocide or overthrow of old social orders. World War II culminated in the overthrow of aristocratic power which remained in central and southeastern Europe in which the most powerful aristocrats aligned themselves with Hitler.

Align with a Hitler, and you deserve annihilation.

We have much economic distress. The current President is taking social Darwinism to its logical extreme in his belief that the rich are blessed and the poor are culpable, with a sponsorship of monopolization and bureaucratic power in for-profit and non-profit organizations -- and the privatization of the public sector to profiteering grafters. The current President appeals to the worst in right-wing culture, religion, and politics.

If the polls are right, then his agenda is being rejected. This 4T is likely to prove another Hegeli9an synthesis of what remains credible late in the 4T.

[AspieMillennial]

(04-27-2019, 03:45 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(04-20-2019, 06:09 PM)AspieMillennia Wrote: Of course it's possible. The mainstream music culture is so bad today that people are doing anything they can to opt out of it. A popular saying now is "There's more great music around than in any other time period. You just have to look for it." They say things like "Top 100 is supposed to be shit. The good stuff is underground." Mainstream radio for determining music taste is dead.

The "Civic" generation are supposed to be a fully-branded conglomerate who conform and coagulate.  Isn't it right that the so-called "beats" or pre-hippie were as you describe?  Sitting around in the "dark" looking for the underground stuff because the pop stuff was just too boring? 

I would love for this to be the case.  To me, it does not fit the time frame.  Could it be, this is your opinion (respectfully) but not really the actuality?  I personally do not see people of that age range being hungry for the underground.  Not in their fashion sense, not in any search for the obscure or strange, not in any way seeking to navigate outside the "norm".  10 years ago, pirating media was a big thing.  Now, people of that age range do not even know how to pirate.  I suspect mostly because the idea of apps have cut them off from that knowledge.  I'm not sure folks of that age know how a computer really works.  They know how to work IT, but don't know how to make it work for THEM.

I see many who are bored with the era and the same-same nonsense, but I see no real reaction to it.  I keep mentioning piracy because it was the X way to frak the system, to not have to subscribe to HBO just to see GOT or any service that already costs too much.  To purchase media of any kind..... OR PROGRAMS!  But who needs programs now?  Does anyone under the age of 25 even know how to install a program, let alone pluck it freely from the cloud with a crack?  Conformity is huge right now, that doesn't mean they aren't bored.  I see the S&H phenomenon playing out quite clearly in this Mill generation, who (I keep coming back to this stuff) paying GLADLY for streaming services because they are afraid of the nasty note from service providers.  And, to be quite honest, are happy to be able to pay for the service because to them it somehow means STATUS and being like everyone else in the herd.

Also, the Mill generation is now obsessed with the banning of information.  EVEN though they either don't know or care that big tech corps are selling ALL their information behind the scenes.  However, I use one example which struck me recently... Avengers Endgame.

If anyone here is a total nerdgeek, there are many youtube personalities that began speculating about that movie since Infinity War ended last year.  As the release of Endgame got closer, those personalities began closing down the comments section to protect against spoilers.

Then, spoilers of the movie leaked online, and those same people (mostly all Millennilals) decried the idea that information EXISTED.  If anyone paid attention, the personas told users to "report anyone you see posting spoilers, report their accounts, get rid of them".

Instead of policing themselves, instead of the idea "if you don't want spoilers, DONT LOOK" they took the opposing view of "THAT INFORMATION SHOULD NOT EXIST because I might encounter it by accident".

It may sound foolish, but in that is a huge indicator.  The willingness to block information of any kind.................. even movie spoilers........ is a bad sign post.  The Groupthink decided it was not OK for that information to exist, so they (had they the power themselves) would have banished and even punished anyone who made said information available.

I only have to make the jump to Assange to show how over even the last decade, INFORMATION ITSELF has become an enemy.  Some said Assange was a hero because he made INFORMATION available.  Now, people like him are tossed out to the lions because our collective view of INFORMATION has changed so dramatically. 

We are now in a time-shift when we are all becoming so collectively terrified of all the Crises we will do ANYTHING to stay in our suppressed bubble.  To stay "safe" from all the perils going on.  That may not be totally a bad thing, but a THING nonetheless.

The reason there's no reaction to it is because they see they can go online to look for anything and can ignore the radio. I know my protests aren't going to result in anything so I withdraw from the world I can't stand and so do a lot of Millennials who don't fit in with others in the group. Also I will refuse to be considered to be someone who was for censorship in the future. If some punk snot nosed kid in the future blames me for it for the year I was born in I'll chew them out and say how it took far more bravery to be me and against censorship in an era where people were for censorship and how they weren't brave because they were in the majority. I would chew him out majorly until he apologized to me. Also I'm not interested in the music right now so I refuse to be blamed for it. If another snot nosed kid blames me for it I too will chew them out on how they're ingrates and that back then I had to search for music while they didn't. Believe me, I will give the future generation a piece of my mind if they decide to blame me. Since I'm against the narrative of my so-called generation and will be blamed by future generations I'll have a lot of people I will have to chew out, spit, and leave in the dust. Also who do you think was pirating media 10 years ago? I'm 32 and born in 1986 and feel insulted that you think I'd have no ability to do this. I think independently and get to think however I want. You don't get to tell me how I must think because of the year I was born in. I do what I want and will not take that attitude from you or anyone else. I'm as stubborn as a mule because I'm used to resisting crowds. If I was born in 1995 I'd be able to resist due to my strong personality. If you were I don't know if you could because you think reality is determined by birth year. If this isn't so-called reality why have I been looking underground for stuff for years? You are basically denying my existence and saying "Oh no this can't be your personal experience. You were born in such and such a year." Yet you call yourself such a free thinker just because you were born before 1982.

[AspieMillennial]

These quotes by Grace Hopper describe my attitude towards life:

"If it's a good idea, go ahead and do it. It's much easier to apologize than it is to get permission."

"It's always easier to apologize for something you've already done than to get approval for it in advance."

"Humans are allergic to change. They love to say, 'We've always done it this way.' I try to fight that. That's why I have a clock on my wall that runs counter-clockwise."

I don't believe in protesting or asking for approval that will never happen. I just go ahead and do what I want and let the cards fall where they may. I take approval and permission
as things that will just never happen so you don't even try to negotiate beforehand.

[Tim Randal Walker]

If I recall correctly, the Progressive generation was 17 years long. If the Millenials are 22 years long, they would be a longer pseudo-Artist-generation than the Progressives.

[AspieMillennial]

(04-28-2019, 07:34 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: If I recall correctly, the Progressive generation was 17 years long. If the Millenials are 22 years long, they would be a longer pseudo-Artist-generation than the Progressives.

Why are generations so long? It seems inaccurate to me with the way the world changes so fast.

[pbrower2a]

(04-28-2019, 08:00 PM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(04-28-2019, 07:34 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: If I recall correctly, the Progressive generation was 17 years long.  If the Millenials are 22 years long, they would be a longer pseudo-Artist-generation than the Progressives.

Why are generations so long? It seems inaccurate to me with the way the world changes so fast.

The amazing thing is that generations turn over as quickly as they now do -- and not as they did in the Renaissance through the Enlightenment.

Today the teenagers become a marketplace for such ideas as those in comic books, popular music, television, and cinema. In earlier times kids either started toiling early and took the adult role of productivity without becoming creative people or participating in any marketplace of ideas. Long apprenticeships ensured that people did not achieve any discretionary role in society until they were in their thirties unless they became 'child kings' -- which was usually a disaster both for the king and the kingdom. Education, such as it was, was extremely stereotypical, failing to create intellectual independence. Obviously any semblance of intellectual independence was the source of much-dreaded sedition and heresy, both of which got one the same sort of treatment that a highwayman might. Burning at the stake, perhaps?

The medieval world was conformist and largely uncreative -- especially for the best and brightest who knew that those who fed them from the pot could use the fire that cooked their dinner to cook them alive.

Not until the Renaissance did the culture begin taking on modern competence in expression. Contrast medieval art (usually lacking in perspective, something that people now take for granted, and even neophyte artists do almost instinctively) and literature. It started to win over the Establishment because it was more satisfying. People then started asking questions about basic truths, like whether clerics should get away with corruption and rapaciousness that the common man could never get away with -- or whether such a question as

Quote:How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?

was even worthy of a debate. Only when most of the medieval hogwash had vanished from life could people start doing meaningful creativity.

Consider music. A new musical style can spread around the world with unbelievable speed. The pace may have been slower with "Beatlemania" than whatever is the current craze, slower still with Big Band music a quarter-century earlier, slower still with what I consider the most critical work of the twentieth century, the one that shattered the dominance of Romanticism in music.

Music of the time of Haydn and Mozart could advance to new audiences at most at the speed of horse and rider or sailing ships -- and this music took a very long time to reach America. Years! The Beatles traveled by jet aircraft; musical scores contemporary to Le Sacre du Printemps (1913) could travel by by (then) swift trains and motorcars through a continental landmass or across the sea by steamer just slightly slower than word-of-mouth if the reviews were flattering or controversial. (An aside: it was the ballet and not the music that was so controversial in 1913).





OK, so it is highly unlikely that any living person is still alive who heard the premiere. For most of us the most important premiere for us of any book, musical piece, objet d'art, or video is our personal first experience. Sure, I am old enough at age 63 that I remember when  Igor Stravinsky was living; I was fifteen when he died.

So we get to pick and choose what we want from the great repository of culture. I have my bias; this music is more powerful than any piece of rock music. I need no powdered wig to appreciate music written when people wore powdered wigs.

Smart kids, the ones who eventually shape the world, get to pick and choose from centuries of achievement, and that makes all the difference in the world. Even if they are slow to achieve economic independence (in this age of peonage in the form of student-loan debt which makes young adults sophisticated versions of sharecroppers) they can absorb much and establish their identities as youth could not in earlier times.

[AspieMillennial]

(04-27-2019, 03:45 PM)TheNomad Wrote:

(04-20-2019, 06:09 PM)AspieMillennia Wrote: Of course it's possible. The mainstream music culture is so bad today that people are doing anything they can to opt out of it. A popular saying now is "There's more great music around than in any other time period. You just have to look for it." They say things like "Top 100 is supposed to be shit. The good stuff is underground." Mainstream radio for determining music taste is dead.

The "Civic" generation are supposed to be a fully-branded conglomerate who conform and coagulate.  Isn't it right that the so-called "beats" or pre-hippie were as you describe?  Sitting around in the "dark" looking for the underground stuff because the pop stuff was just too boring? 

I would love for this to be the case.  To me, it does not fit the time frame.  Could it be, this is your opinion (respectfully) but not really the actuality?  I personally do not see people of that age range being hungry for the underground.  Not in their fashion sense, not in any search for the obscure or strange, not in any way seeking to navigate outside the "norm".  10 years ago, pirating media was a big thing.  Now, people of that age range do not even know how to pirate.  I suspect mostly because the idea of apps have cut them off from that knowledge.  I'm not sure folks of that age know how a computer really works.  They know how to work IT, but don't know how to make it work for THEM.

I see many who are bored with the era and the same-same nonsense, but I see no real reaction to it.  I keep mentioning piracy because it was the X way to frak the system, to not have to subscribe to HBO just to see GOT or any service that already costs too much.  To purchase media of any kind..... OR PROGRAMS!  But who needs programs now?  Does anyone under the age of 25 even know how to install a program, let alone pluck it freely from the cloud with a crack?  Conformity is huge right now, that doesn't mean they aren't bored.  I see the S&H phenomenon playing out quite clearly in this Mill generation, who (I keep coming back to this stuff) paying GLADLY for streaming services because they are afraid of the nasty note from service providers.  And, to be quite honest, are happy to be able to pay for the service because to them it somehow means STATUS and being like everyone else in the herd.

Also, the Mill generation is now obsessed with the banning of information.  EVEN though they either don't know or care that big tech corps are selling ALL their information behind the scenes.  However, I use one example which struck me recently... Avengers Endgame.

If anyone here is a total nerdgeek, there are many youtube personalities that began speculating about that movie since Infinity War ended last year.  As the release of Endgame got closer, those personalities began closing down the comments section to protect against spoilers.

Then, spoilers of the movie leaked online, and those same people (mostly all Millennilals) decried the idea that information EXISTED.  If anyone paid attention, the personas told users to "report anyone you see posting spoilers, report their accounts, get rid of them".

Instead of policing themselves, instead of the idea "if you don't want spoilers, DONT LOOK" they took the opposing view of "THAT INFORMATION SHOULD NOT EXIST because I might encounter it by accident".

It may sound foolish, but in that is a huge indicator.  The willingness to block information of any kind.................. even movie spoilers........ is a bad sign post.  The Groupthink decided it was not OK for that information to exist, so they (had they the power themselves) would have banished and even punished anyone who made said information available.

I only have to make the jump to Assange to show how over even the last decade, INFORMATION ITSELF has become an enemy.  Some said Assange was a hero because he made INFORMATION available.  Now, people like him are tossed out to the lions because our collective view of INFORMATION has changed so dramatically. 

We are now in a time-shift when we are all becoming so collectively terrified of all the Crises we will do ANYTHING to stay in our suppressed bubble.  To stay "safe" from all the perils going on.  That may not be totally a bad thing, but a THING nonetheless.

I've been told "You're a civic and civics aren't known for looking for stuff on their own. They just like big and corporate." and about how other generations are the ones who made up movements to rebel. But I don't have any time to wait for some other movement who will probably reject me anyways for the age group I'm in. Why is it less valid to search for things and find meaning on your own than it is to do so as some part of a big movement? People are telling me my experiences do not exist or matter. Once they hear a generation their mind goes blank with buzzwords. There are plenty of places to look for everything yet everyone tells me that what I do doesn't exist or that my own personal experiences do not exist. That I MUST be defined as what's out there now just because my parents fucked in some random time period. It all seems arbitrary and absurd to me. I'm a loner by nature so it's easy for me to define my own interests. I don't see why that somehow doesn't exist just because I'm not a part of this giant movement. Why do my personal experiences of searching for things in the dark on my own suddenly not exist just because my parents fucked in some random time period? Why do you get to decide my personal experiences as if you know me as an individual just because I happen to be born in this so-called conformist group?

You see. I'm used to going against groups so I am far stronger as an individual than people who need a big movement to do it. You tell me I don't search for things underground when I was even doing it before social media took over the internet and have been doing it even more now. To say my personal experiences are invalid just because of some arbitrary year I was born in is absurd. Why are my experiences less valid just because I'm not doing it as a part of a formal movement? Why should I be generalized as someone who never looked for things on my own when I've been looking and searching for years? Is this fair? No. I don't care about status. What does it objectively get me if some random people online give me a thumbs up? Nothing. It's even easier not to follow the norm today because social media feels so depersonalized. I'm just disobeying some random internet people. It's no big thing to me.

I would actually make the argument that YOU care more about what randos online do or say. You care more about their opinions and what's happening on social media than I do. To me they're just some big internet blob I can ignore. I have Asperger's Syndrome though so maybe that's why I think this way. I wasn't even aware of people being this outraged about spoilers, I'm that out of the loop and socially isolated. Arguably you're more in society than I am because I was unaware.

[TheNomad]

hi sorry not meant to offend. when discussing especially things of a cycles nature like this, it's impossible not to generalize. Generalization has to be done. It cannot be avoided, in fact, when prognosticating in that manner. We are, after all - all of us here - engaged in understanding what groups of people did/do/will do as a whole.

most of the things you said sound more like me (a true Nomad) and I am sure that's true with people in every archetype. No two people are identical. Not in an archetype, not ever.

[AspieMillennial]

(04-29-2019, 03:48 PM)TheNomad Wrote: hi sorry not meant to offend. when discussing especially things of a cycles nature like this, it's impossible not to generalize. Generalization has to be done. It cannot be avoided, in fact, when prognosticating in that manner. We are, after all - all of us here - engaged in understanding what groups of people did/do/will do as a whole.

most of the things you said sound more like me (a true Nomad) and I am sure that's true with people in every archetype. No two people are identical. Not in an archetype, not ever.

OK I understand now that it was done on a group level and not an individual level. Society to me doesn't matter if I can find a small niche or isolate myself from the results of society. Society becomes a problem IMO when you can't isolate your way out of it. I don't feel powerful enough to change society to the way I like it so my ultimate goal is to isolate myself from its issues until it passes. This is what the 4T feels to me, this giant waiting room where I'm sitting around ho hum trying to avoid most of it waiting for things to just get over with. I find myself thinking "Just hurry up and get it over with already."

[Mikebert]

(04-28-2019, 05:55 AM)TheNomad Wrote: What is "phony" in that scenario?  Not sure I understand.

In an August 21, 2000 post* on the Kondratieff wave and its relation with the S&H cycle, I wrote this at the end of the post:

This implies a 51 year K-cycle in the late 19th century and a 61 year K-cycle in the first part of the 20th century. Assuming complete adoption of the Dentian pattern we should see a ~70 year K-cycle and ~70 year saeculum in operation today. This would imply that Kondratiev winter and the Crisis period should be starting now, most probably with a major market peak, which is what the stock cycle model predicted. 

The monthly average of the stock market average peaked that month, suggesting that a 4T was to begin shortly. When 911 happened, I saw that as strong support. Many T4Ters were of similar opinion that 911 was the trigger. A number of us, including Brian Rush were of the opinion that (1) there was no civil war anomaly, so the 1822-1984 period which spanned 9 turnings, also spanned 9 generations, giving an average length of 18 years for a generation/turning.  With this theory the projected date for the 4T would be the average of 1984+18 = 2002 and 1964+36 = 2000 and 1946+54 = 2000 and 1929+72 =2001 which works out to 2001, and there was 911, right on time.

Better still there were two more clear-cut indicators, which when they happened would confirm the 4T start. One was as monetary indicator that had last gone off in 1929, and which I expected we would see very likely in 2002. It didn't happen then, but rather in 2009. The other indicator would be the beginning of a period of political dominance one of the other parties. Either Republican rule would be affirmed by Republican victories in 2004 and 2008, or they would be rejected by a 2004 loss.  Neither happened.

Finally there was the 3T-type response to 911. The president called the people who attacked us "folks" and told us to go shopping. In Generations S&H actually talked about a terrorist attack in 2000 and how a 3T-type response would result in the failure to form a Civic Generation.There were also the many known problems that had been put off throughout the 3T that needed to be addressed such as climate change and lack of wage growth for decades that continued to be ignored. It looked more and more like we were still in a 3T.

When the financial crisis happened we had a new trigger. This one was confirmed by the monetary indicator in 2009, just like the 911 candidate had been forecasted by the long-term stock market peak (both the stock market and the monetary indicator had occurred in 1929, but this time they were spaced 8 years apart). But there was still the political indicator, which would be confirmed by a Democratic victory in 2016. That did not happen. 

As before, no substantial action against the financial crisis was taken, as indicated by how the recession worsened from 2008 to 2009-2010 and Democrats were shellacked in 2010 (in contrast the economy began growing right after FDR was inaugurated and Democrats won seats in 1934). Nor was any action taken to address climate change or our economic problems.  In 2016 a Republican was elected president who basically rejected most of everything the Bush administration had tried to push.  It is pretty clear that Trump is trying to take the Republicans in a very different direction that what the Bush-led party stood for.  In other works Trump is not a continuation of a trend begun in 2001, but starting a new one in 2016.

*The post was at the original T4T site (which can still be found here) It was in The Future category and The Kondratieff Wave And The Fourth Turning thread.