11-11-2016, 09:40 AM
Some time ago, I think at the old site I posted on several historical cycle comparisons for this election. One of them was influenced by the Turchin cycle model, and the other used the S&H model.
Here’s the S&H (here I am using Marc Lamb’s concept of a 40 year repeating unit)
Reagan = T Roosevelt
Bush I = Taft
Clinton = Wilson
Bush II = Harding/Coolidge
Obama = Hoover/early FDR
Clinton = later FDR
Here’s what you get using the Turchin cycle
Clinton = Cleveland
Bush II = T Roosevelt-Taft
Obama = Wilson
Trump = Harding-Coolidge
The focus of the first is the idea that we be 4T, and so the presidents since Reagan should reflect a 3T transition to a 4T. The focus of the second is that the current period resembles the crisis phase of the secular cycle. We have high levels of immigrants that are provoking a backlash from native-born Americans. Recall that the Republican elected in 1920 promised to return America to normalcy. The one elected in 2016 promises a return to sunnier times of the past. America sharply restricted immigration over 1921-24. Trump promises to do the same. Then there was a significant progressive minority fed up with both parties who had flocked to the banner of Socialist Eugene Debs in elections in the teens and 1920. This time there was a popular socialist who has a picture of Debs in his Senate office. The new Republican administration began a program of tax reform involving lowering rates that maintained revenues and got rates down to 24% by 1929. Trump has a plan begin another such process. The Republican administration installed in 1920 was initially popular while the stock market rally that began in 1921 continued. This changed after stocks began to fall.
Now I was aware of how eerily similar these two periods seem. But I discounted it because it pretty much throws out S&H, and Clinton was almost certainly going to win, as predicted by the S&H-based models. Well, that didn’t happen.
Throwing out S&H allows for new predictions. Instead of the coming recession being a 1937-38 analog, with resolution of the inequality issue a few years after under president Clinton, it is going to be an analog to 1920-21. With Trump as Harding. (Harding was famously corrupt and had a thing for the ladies too). There is a difference now, as the market is already very overvalued, whereas it was undervalued in 1920. Assume Trump succeeds in restricting immigration and trade (as achieved under Harding to Hoover) before the crash consumes his administration. We may see a telescoping of the entire 1920-1932 period into one term. How can Congressional Republicans deny him these things if he threatens to hold rallies for their primary opponents in 2018 if they do?
If this happens it gets very interesting.
Here’s the S&H (here I am using Marc Lamb’s concept of a 40 year repeating unit)
Reagan = T Roosevelt
Bush I = Taft
Clinton = Wilson
Bush II = Harding/Coolidge
Obama = Hoover/early FDR
Clinton = later FDR
Here’s what you get using the Turchin cycle
Clinton = Cleveland
Bush II = T Roosevelt-Taft
Obama = Wilson
Trump = Harding-Coolidge
The focus of the first is the idea that we be 4T, and so the presidents since Reagan should reflect a 3T transition to a 4T. The focus of the second is that the current period resembles the crisis phase of the secular cycle. We have high levels of immigrants that are provoking a backlash from native-born Americans. Recall that the Republican elected in 1920 promised to return America to normalcy. The one elected in 2016 promises a return to sunnier times of the past. America sharply restricted immigration over 1921-24. Trump promises to do the same. Then there was a significant progressive minority fed up with both parties who had flocked to the banner of Socialist Eugene Debs in elections in the teens and 1920. This time there was a popular socialist who has a picture of Debs in his Senate office. The new Republican administration began a program of tax reform involving lowering rates that maintained revenues and got rates down to 24% by 1929. Trump has a plan begin another such process. The Republican administration installed in 1920 was initially popular while the stock market rally that began in 1921 continued. This changed after stocks began to fall.
Now I was aware of how eerily similar these two periods seem. But I discounted it because it pretty much throws out S&H, and Clinton was almost certainly going to win, as predicted by the S&H-based models. Well, that didn’t happen.
Throwing out S&H allows for new predictions. Instead of the coming recession being a 1937-38 analog, with resolution of the inequality issue a few years after under president Clinton, it is going to be an analog to 1920-21. With Trump as Harding. (Harding was famously corrupt and had a thing for the ladies too). There is a difference now, as the market is already very overvalued, whereas it was undervalued in 1920. Assume Trump succeeds in restricting immigration and trade (as achieved under Harding to Hoover) before the crash consumes his administration. We may see a telescoping of the entire 1920-1932 period into one term. How can Congressional Republicans deny him these things if he threatens to hold rallies for their primary opponents in 2018 if they do?
If this happens it gets very interesting.