01-09-2017, 04:16 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2017, 04:18 AM by Eric the Green.)
The Demographic theory didn't work in 2016. The article, although its projections were wrong, compared as I read it to 1928, and that could be true.
But in 2016, states where hispanic voters counted strongly (mostly in The West) did not have enough electoral votes to defeat the states in the Rust Belt where old whites predominate, in an ethnically-charged election. Trump was able thus to use resentment against Mexicans and Muslims to win the electoral vote narrowly while losing the popular vote substantially. Gerrymandering in these same states since the 2010 disaster has kept the House more Republican than the electorate is.
Millennials at this time do not seem to be a reliable Democratic constituency. Their civic awareness has not been demonstrated, except in 2008. They appear to be ripe targets for the older whites peddling neo-liberal economics and blowing racist dog whistles like "taxes are theft for freeloaders." The deceptive appeal of "less government" slogans remains the greatest obstacle facing Democrats.
It's true that the Democratic candidate for president in 2016 was inadequate. I don't know if a better candidate will run. According to my crystal ball, Terry McAuliffe and Sherrod Brown are possibilities. I would not predict the 2020 election until I know who the nominee is.
But in 2016, states where hispanic voters counted strongly (mostly in The West) did not have enough electoral votes to defeat the states in the Rust Belt where old whites predominate, in an ethnically-charged election. Trump was able thus to use resentment against Mexicans and Muslims to win the electoral vote narrowly while losing the popular vote substantially. Gerrymandering in these same states since the 2010 disaster has kept the House more Republican than the electorate is.
Millennials at this time do not seem to be a reliable Democratic constituency. Their civic awareness has not been demonstrated, except in 2008. They appear to be ripe targets for the older whites peddling neo-liberal economics and blowing racist dog whistles like "taxes are theft for freeloaders." The deceptive appeal of "less government" slogans remains the greatest obstacle facing Democrats.
It's true that the Democratic candidate for president in 2016 was inadequate. I don't know if a better candidate will run. According to my crystal ball, Terry McAuliffe and Sherrod Brown are possibilities. I would not predict the 2020 election until I know who the nominee is.