03-08-2017, 03:52 PM
(03-08-2017, 03:03 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:True enough. Particularly those middle-class homeowners in some scattered regions of the country who are still "underwater" on their mortgages. Some in the same group may have panicked out of the stock market, too, near the bottom, though only half of Americans have any stake at all in equities. But you must admit that the top income group--however one defines it--recovered their "lost" wealth rather quickly, and then some. The values of high-end real estate alone attest to that, foreign buyers notwithstanding.(03-08-2017, 02:24 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote: Happy Anniversary, Bull Market! Tomorrow marks the eighth anniversary of the second-longest bull market in U.S. history, dating from the March 9, 2009 low in the major stock indices. It's been quite a run for equity investors. So it seems like as a good time as any to ask if the stock market is approaching the kind of "bubble" territory that might usher in the Great Devaluation, to which Strauss & Howe make frequent reference in The Fourth Turning.
I have provided links to some of the more interesting articles published, some of which provide excellent perspective with various graphics.
Disclaimer: Nothing here should be construed as trading or investment advice. Consult your financial advisor for guidance:
Stop! This is NOT like the dot-com bubble... it’s much worse, according to this chart
The dangers lurking within the world’s ‘most deceptive’ stock market chart
Wall Street's super-charged bull faces its own March madness
Stock investors can’t bank on another 8-year bull-market bonanza
A Republican and a Democrat agree: Wall Street’s too bullish on Trump
Bull market depends on whether Trump can deliver on key promises
Of course, the above-referenced articles are limited to the stock market, leaving aside for the time being any discussion of "bubbles" in bonds, real estate, or arts & collectibles. (And, for what it's worth, some investment advisors say that we're already in an "Everything Bubble.")
I have a couple of questions--hopefully not rhetorical. Do you consider the trillions in "lost" wealth, resulting from the financial crisis of 2008, to be sufficient--both in terms of magnitude and duration--to qualify as the Great Devaluation? Or do other factors have to come into play first, such as a fiscal crisis, currency devaluation, what have you?
Many middle income people suffered from a Great Devaluation last decade, from which they have never recovered. At least some of the Trump voters hail from that demographic.
So perhaps I should have qualified the Great Devaluation not only in terms of magnitude and duration, but in terms of breadth as well.
Still, the question remains: Was the loss in wealth caused by the Great Recession sufficiently dire--across the board--to constitute the Great Devaluation to which the book refers? Or does some greater financial calamity have to befall us? One that results not only in a paradigm shift in politics, which is obviously underway, but a paradigm shift in the political economy as well?