(05-13-2017, 01:14 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(05-13-2017, 10:06 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: I expect a decline in living standards for most Americans under Trump, whether through an economic meltdown or through policies that enrich elites at the expense of everyone else. Ronald Reagan did get away with cutting expectations (which put an end to Nixon-Ford-Carter inflation); he isn't as good a communicator as Reagan.
While Trump has been telling extreme red partisans what they want to hear very well, I'd nominate "he isn't as good a communicator as Reagan" as quite an understatement. It's still early to dismiss his hold on the red extreme base, though. The unraveling memes are set hard in parts of the population.
Ronald Reagan is the minimum standard for a successful 4T President.
America will need a President capable of convincing people to make great sacrifices for the Nation, if not for Humanity as a whole. We are going to need a President capable of telling youth that they need to risk sudden death or crippling injury to fend off a real threat to America and its allies... Great leaders can keep convincing people that there are fates worse than battlefield death -- like enslavement -- so long as they keep their integrity intact or have victory in sight. Great leaders can convince people to sacrifice hedonism for preservation of traditions of political decency. That's a tough standard, but I see it in Disraeli, Lincoln, Juarez, Garibaldi, Churchill, FDR, and Mannerheim. (Mannerheim? The one Axis leader that I wish were on our side).
Maybe there are leaders capable of such who miss the opportunity because of timing. Let's see how Presidents going back 120 years.
22/24 Cleveland -- Unlikely.
25. McKinley -- Too much focus on economic growth as an objective. Economic growth obviously falters in a Crisis.
26. Theodore Roosevelt -- Generally in the top of Presidents just below the conventionally three best (Washington, Lincoln, and FDR in some order) in the league with Jefferson. Right for the time, but perhaps a bit reckless for a Crisis.
27. Taft -- No. Too much concern for process.
28. Wilson -- Almost. His health failed him as he tried to promote a great new world that without him would prove fatally flawed.
29. Harding -- Utterly undistinguished.
30. Coolidge -- Snore.
31. Hoover -- Bungled the economy. Not a convincing speaker.
32. FDR -- enough said.
33. Truman -- the sort to try to connect the loose ends after a messy victory.
34. Eisenhower -- not really. Great general, competent president for a High.
35. Kennedy -- His big strides are easily achieved when dangers of a Crisis are abated.
36. LBJ -- too conflicted.
37. Nixon -- too amoral. Indeed far too amoral despite his brilliant mind.
38. Ford -- inadequate preparation.
39. Carter -- didn't handle the mess that he got. Too much emphasis on process which would be irrelevant in a Crisis.
40. Reagan -- already mentioned.
41. George H W Bush -- basically a caretaker in a safe time.
42. Clinton -- good for a discussion.
43. Dubya -- weak leader, more of a follower and followed some of the wrong people.
44. Obama. maybe. Mercifully an ex-President can have much of a role in American life. Irrelevant until 2021 even as "President Emeritus". That could be an even bigger role in the wake of what I see as a sure failure by Donald Trump.
If Carter and the elder Bush had bigger roles in American history as ex-Presidents, then why not he?
45. Trump. Disaster time. James Buchanan without the legacy of a lifetime of achievements in political office. A hint: it wasn't the "Buchanan Highway" that connected San Francisco with Greater New York City through Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Fort Wayne, Greater Chicago, Omaha, Salt Lake City, and Sacramento.
The 46th President (if not Pence) or the 47th President (if Pence is "46") will spend much effort undoing the damage that Trump has done.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.