10-04-2016, 11:47 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-04-2016, 11:48 PM by Warren Dew.)
(10-04-2016, 02:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:(10-02-2016, 12:45 PM)Mikebert Wrote: What I really want to see is how you can get a HUGE reduction in inequality like that seen in the 1340-1450 period or in the 1930-1970 period without massive population decline (which induces labor shortages that drive wages up) or a massive reduction in elite number through war attrition (that allows a greater fraction of economic output to flow to the lower orders). If demographics are key its pretty much one or the other.
As a potential solution I have a manuscript ready to go that just awaits a literature review of Turchin's book, which I cannot do until I read it. It is also possible that the finished book is very different than the manuscript I read, maybe he as already come up with the stuff in my paper--he's a really smart guy.
There is a very high probability that the concept of a labor shortage will become passé in the next two or three decades ... perhaps sooner.
If the coming crisis war is nuclear, we could get arbitrarily large population declines, though.