03-05-2021, 08:00 AM
Personally, I think the 80 year cycle only applies to the US and that the Western Europe cycle is roughly 150 years, with the Continent smack dab in the middle of a cycle as we speak. The US will have its 4T, but I'd argue France, Germany et al. are in fact transitioning from a 2T to a 3T within a much longer saeculum. Look at the major sign posts of European history (Treaty of Westphalia, French Revolution/Napoelon, then the World Wars). Sure, things hit the fan circa 1870 in Europe but it was relatively subdued compared to the crisis eras that bookended it. You could argue Europe had a drawn out 1T that lasted into the 1980s and centred around the theme of postwar prosperity. This was then followed by a 2T preoccupied with the concept of multiculturalism and its effect on "European identity". This of course reached a fever pitch with the refugee crisis. The question is how will Covid be politically leveraged in Continental Europe in the near future. It's possible the far right will ultimately take advantage of the continent's mental exhaustion resulting from Covid and sweep to power with Europeans finding themselves in a boiling frog scenario that will spiral out of control during their next drawn out crisis era towards the end of the 21st century. Only time will tell.