A Realignment Theory

[sbarrera]

(09-02-2016, 01:11 AM)Dan Wrote: Here’s an article from March on a realignment theory.

 
What I’m most interested in is this chart:





While I have some quibbles with the terminology and the dates I think the chart is and theory is on to something.  The dividing line in American politics rotates 90 ° per saeculum or 45 ° per social moment I would argue that the line the chart labels is 1960 is more like the 1950 line and by 1960 the line had moved somewhat clockwise. I think that the subsequent lines are basically accurate. Furthermore if you were to go back to 1896 the line would be about 45 ° of what the author labeled as the 1960 divide.  If the pattern holds the dividing line will be horizontal at the end of the 4T and move clockwise from there, by the next 2T Republicans will start to resemble progressive era Democrats.

This resonates with generational theory, I agree. It seems that in the 2016 split, both sides are now in favor of wealth redistribution, but with the Social Dimension opposed (Sanders v. Trump). The GOP put the populist up for president, and the Dems put up the Cosmopolitan, hence the GOP got the White House. 

A question I have is - does the dividing line spin round and round, or does it wobble back and forth?