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Well, I'm back
#61
(01-25-2018, 01:33 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(01-24-2018, 08:18 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(01-23-2018, 11:51 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(01-22-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: ... But if boom times impel the Republicans to stay in power, and rule over times that become relaxed and complacent with the national divide just fading away into a new and successful gilded age, then I think the cycle of the saeculum has ended. The 4T would have been a brief dud in 2008-2010. There is no 1T without a 4T; there would be no way to characterize such a prospect within the saeculum paradigm. The pattern would simply not hold. But all the cosmic signs and the demographics militate against this happening. The cosmic signs may not always be easy to read, but on this point they seem unambiguous. We have severe conflicts ahead in the 2020s, and vigorous new departures for our country-- or what's left of it.

We're entering the second Age following the Industrial.  That alone is enough to change the tenor of things.  But that doesn't mean that we're at the end of history, merely shifting to a new paradigm.  We still have issues that need to be solved, and some are moving to the critical stage.  The real question: do they get resolved in this 4T period or merely delayed until the next 2T or longer?  Intellectually, I'm open to either, but emotionally I'd prefer seeing the issues resolved sooner than later.  

I don't always get my wish.

Me either. One thing I've noticed is how many tyrants have appeared and gone beserk in recent times despite the touted "end of history" following the end of the Soviet Union and the birth of many new states and some new democracies in the 1990s.

Human nature, especially of economic and administrative elites, hasn't changed much since the time of Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle or of the Hebrew prophets. The classics remain relevant to Modern Man in ways that we don;t realize until we neglect the lessons. In case someone says that this observation is unduly ethnocentric, one can get a workable order out of Confucius and the Buddha.

Economic and administrative elites have invariably done what they think that they can get away with, whatever their stated ideology. The question is whether they know when to give up. The French Revolution of 1789 had much to say about the Romanian Revolution of 1989 even if the ideologies of Louis XVI and Nicolae Ceausescu were seeming opposites.


Quote:Now, Turkey has slipped back into the world of thuggery, and Assad of Syria has taken it to a level not seen since Hitler and Pol Pot. This vacuum also opened the way to the horrible Islamic State. The current Isreali thug ruler continues to attack his Palestinian neighbors. Deterte has waged war on his own Filipinos in the name of the drug war, and General Sisi hijacked the Egyptian Arab Spring democratic movement and turned it into virtual tyranny. The Saudi royal family is easing some restrictions while they rain terror and death over their Yemeni neighbors -- even as they now are offering some aid to them. Putin has put the emergent Russian democracy back into the age of the Tsars. Hungary and Poland seem on the verge of fascism, and Venezuela and Brazil are in the grip of corruption, and in the former case of one-man rule despite people massed in the streets against him. Honduras remains in the grip of thuggery too. And the USA put a would-be thug into its Oval Office who is marching that nation back into medieval times as fast as he can.

I now have more fear of what Donald Trump can do to the world than I ever had of Khrushchev or Brezhnev. This is what one gets with a political leader whose style of communication is the schoolyard taunt. This is what one gets with leadership more attentive to personal gain and indulgence than with service to Humanity, someone who ridicules any critic.

Perhaps multicultural tendencies have their own reaction in people circling the wagons against people unlike themselves by culture, religion,  and appearance. But we Americans seem to be recognizing that we have a big problem.



Quote:....
One thing is sure, more change will come in this 4T, and in the USA the progressive side has always won the 4T battles. If the progressive side loses this time and the Republicans win instead, it will mark the first time that the regressive side has won, and will indicate that the USA is in severe decline. It would not survive as we know it. One thing is sure too: changes in a 4T are never enough, even if the progressive side wins as usual. There is always more needed, and that's where the next 2T comes in to take things to the next level. 

 In Germany (with the arguable exception of the Soviet Zone), Austria, Italy, and Japan, the progressive side won. But the ones who won were foreign Great Powers, even if that was not soon enough to prevent some unspeakable horrors of enslavement and genocide. God help us should America go so bad that it should need foreign liberation in defeat to recover some political decency.

America as an Evil Empire dominant upon the world is one of the worst scenarios possible. To be sure, corruption and cruelty are not good for winning the final struggle. The best way to win a war is to make sure that the other side has nothing left for which to fight. What would be worse? Extinction of civilization, let alone humanity itself.


Quote:But I think we need a progressive victory in the 4T before the next 2T can bring a new Awakening. A reactionary victory in this 4T will result in there being no new Awakening in what is now the USA. There will be no basis for one in society. America cannot recover from a victory by today's regressive faction, which is now in power. Awakenings as we have known them don't happen in societies that are in constant suffering and decline. One reason for this is that there will be no new prophet generation. These generations have always been victory children.


But Germany and Italy had Awakening eras just as strong as ours. So did Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary, not as privileged as the non-communist industrialized countries. Japan might not have, but that says more about Japanese culture or that Japanese pop culture didn't then travel well. Sweden, not a participant in World War II, had an Awakening. The repressive regimes of Spain and Portugal were able to put off Awakening Eras until the 1970s. but when the glacial winters of repression died, the flowers could bloom. An Awakening Era depends on some freedom and the perception that the world is a much safer place than it had been.


Quote:One thing to note well, however. In 4T crises, it has always been uncertain whether the progressive side would win, or whether we instead would slip into a new dark age. It is always darkest before the dawn. The American Revolution hung by a thread many times. The Civil War seemed to go on and on with no end in sight. The Depression seemed never-ending too, and Hitler could have defeated the Allies had he been smarter in his strategy.

Hitler lost the war because he could have never gotten peace except through the extermination of his enemies as he tried with the Jews. In any event I can figure that his style of government would have imploded much as the Soviet order did in the 1980s.  But this is a science-fiction scenario.

The best thing that one can say of a 4T is that people eventually do what they must to preserve what is best in their heritage while undoing the worst, when alternatives (especially giving in to a seeming fate) become unworkable.

Hitler lost the European war because of his atrocities. I can easily imagine Britain accepting a German hegemony over Europe had it not been for Nazi atrocities much as Britain had shown little concern about the Franco-Prussian War.


Quote:Awakenings have not always been entirely successful or progressive spiritually, but they DO nevertheless put some momentum behind the changes that happen in the next 4T. Earlier awakenings were traditionally-religious, but uplifting to the spirit. This kind of awakening in the mid-18th century gave momentum to positive changes such as the American Revolution 4T, with a new constitution as its outcome that, while still flawed, was a landmark in human history that inspired the French and then the world. 


The Boom Awakening has not been as rich in consciousness-building literature as the Transcendental and Missionary Awakenings. So far I see some progress in minority-based consciousness... but at this stage of the  4T I see largely the narcissism among economic and administrative elites, and this is much the problem of contemporary America -- people with the power to get practically anything that they want and nobody able to stop them. This said, many Boomers reject this and want something very different -- and they will need Generation X to administer such change and Millennial adults to realize it in work. Donald Trump is not the last act of Boomers, the youngest of which will be in their 60s in the 2020s.  

Quote:Since then, our great Awakenings have often been both traditionally-religious and non-conformist spiritual movements. That includes the previous one, which was dominated by non-conformist awakenings through human potential and counter-cultural movements like esalen, est, the hippies and the new agers, which although climaxing early in the 2T, continued throughout and beyond it, and which also helped empower environmental and peace movements as well as diversity awakenings. Later in the 2T came a counter-awakening of a Jesus-freak movement followed by the moral majority and other fundamentalist awakenings that empowered the reactionary political movements still dominant today in red states. This divided awakening has resulted in the red-blue divide that threatens to tear our nation apart in this 4T. I suspect, however, that if the nation holds together, that this divide will pass away or lessen in severity in the following 1T.

There are the libertarian causes... and it looks as if Esalen, est, hippies, and New Age stuff will not be particularly relevant to the future. They are strictly Boom phenomena. As for the Christian Protestant fundamentalists -- they have children. If those children read and contemplate the Bible instead of treating it as a holy icon beyond discovery, they will find out how amoral and immoral their parents are for racism, homophobia, and economic hierarchy.

Actually, it looks like the US is following the same path the USSR did to the way to
oblivion.

Falling life expectancy, check.
nomenkatura, check.
imperial overstretch, check.
incompetent bureaucracies, check
failing economy, check. It's there, underneath the gilt.  High real unemployment. The headline is fake news.
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-r...te-3306198
I'll give Americans this. We use a wider array of substances to numb out the pains of dispair. The drug problem is an environmental problem, not a moral problem.

More here.
https://www.salon.com/2010/12/06/america_collapse_2025/

https://www.techdirt.com/articles/201107...eats.shtml
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/wor...l-spending

I dunno when it will happen, but all empires end.  Besides we'll be colliding with climate change, resource shortages, etc. etc.  Russia got lucky in that they didn't have to experience collisions with some pretty damn big black swans. Cool
---Value Added Cool
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Messages In This Thread
Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-04-2018, 11:10 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by gabrielle - 01-05-2018, 10:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-05-2018, 11:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-06-2018, 10:08 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-07-2018, 01:22 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-07-2018, 12:30 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:11 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-09-2018, 07:59 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-10-2018, 05:12 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-10-2018, 12:53 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-08-2018, 08:19 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 01:42 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Galen - 01-09-2018, 05:46 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-09-2018, 06:14 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:16 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:01 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-10-2018, 01:24 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:30 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-09-2018, 11:25 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-09-2018, 10:19 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 09:31 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-10-2018, 02:33 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-09-2018, 10:29 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Kinser79 - 01-11-2018, 03:22 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-11-2018, 05:52 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-12-2018, 08:06 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-14-2018, 07:15 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-14-2018, 02:55 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-15-2018, 01:12 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-15-2018, 05:37 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-16-2018, 06:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-18-2018, 03:26 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-21-2018, 08:27 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-22-2018, 12:23 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by tg63 - 01-12-2018, 12:36 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-14-2018, 11:34 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-14-2018, 12:44 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-15-2018, 03:26 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-15-2018, 05:44 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-15-2018, 08:10 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-15-2018, 10:16 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-15-2018, 11:14 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-15-2018, 10:47 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Classic-Xer - 01-17-2018, 06:35 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-17-2018, 10:43 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-16-2018, 12:21 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-18-2018, 03:32 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-18-2018, 03:38 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 1954 - 01-18-2018, 04:02 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-22-2018, 11:05 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-23-2018, 11:51 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-23-2018, 01:12 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-23-2018, 05:15 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 01-23-2018, 05:13 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-25-2018, 10:08 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-24-2018, 08:18 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 01:33 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Ragnarök_62 - 01-25-2018, 08:00 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 11:50 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 01-25-2018, 01:22 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-25-2018, 04:05 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 01-25-2018, 04:47 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-25-2018, 08:38 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by David Horn - 01-26-2018, 01:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 01-28-2018, 08:07 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-02-2018, 04:30 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-02-2018, 05:08 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-03-2018, 06:17 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-03-2018, 06:25 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-09-2018, 03:45 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 02-09-2018, 05:00 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-09-2018, 08:08 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 02-11-2018, 05:18 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by pbrower2a - 02-11-2018, 09:21 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 02-11-2018, 11:49 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 03-13-2018, 06:46 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Tim Randal Walker - 03-15-2018, 06:55 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Tim Randal Walker - 03-15-2018, 07:02 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 03-15-2018, 07:40 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-25-2018, 05:57 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Bob Butler 54 - 03-28-2018, 12:14 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Eric the Green - 02-07-2019, 01:50 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Ragnarök_62 - 02-07-2019, 03:17 PM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Mikebert - 04-06-2018, 11:06 AM
RE: Well, I'm back - by Marypoza - 02-07-2019, 02:55 AM

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