Looking Toward The Next High

[TheNomad]

(05-22-2018, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:

(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

the next financial panic

This is what I am trying to understand.    Isn't it a bit too late for more devastation?  If these patterns mean anything it is that the cycles and archetypes cannot over-stay their welcome.  If we are to face more devastation and continue in a Crisis for a longer period of time, the archetypes and models sort of fall, don't they?  The Millennial/Heroes are already in adulthood.  The Boomers are pretty much GONE or GOING HARD out of relevancy, and the Nomads are even beginning to enter old age.  When the Nomad comes to full adult power, the Hero is re-shaping everything for the new High.  We cannot say the Millennial will do this in old age, because then the patterns no longer fit.

I really cannot see the current time as an unfortunate aberration.  The current president is an outsider, he is not with any political party and is representing one side simply because at this time in America, you cannot ascend to that level without the backing of one side or another.  This will change with the Heroes who will basically banish the current powerful side for a few long periods (the model says this specifically).  However, even though I see what is currently happening globally and everything, I have to look rationally and at the model and know it won't/can't happen.  That is what I think forecasting IS when you use these kinds of models.  We may want to or really expect things bad to happen and continue and get worse, that always seems to be what happens.  But the models are saying something different. 

I'd love to discuss that aspect.  Let's look at were we are according to all the information the model offers us then interpret that to see what may be coming.

Prophets are in 60s - 80s
Nomads are in their late 30s - late 50s.
Heroes are in 20s - 30s
Artists in toddler to teens

Based on this, and not even really other factors like the saeculum brackets or number of years calculated or factoring in number of years between Crisis and High........... this suggests the Crisis really has blown its load and is on the way out HARD.  That is why I am considering 911/2001 as more a begin bracket.  The authors describe how "if you remember what it was like before, then you are altogether NOT a part of the new bracket".  How everything, the culture, the ideology would be challenged.  How there would be great sacrifice of youngers at behest of "those who protested not to fight themselves asking youngers to sacrifice" (clearly Afghan/Iraqi war after 911) and how Boomers would have an almost orgasmic burst of ideology toward their ending reign in power (the Bush admin).  And then after, you have the first Nomad president handling the financial crisis.  If we move the date to 2008, it does not allow for all the MASSIVE upheaval we experienced as a result of the 2001 terror attacks, after which many of our American systems and core beliefs were tested and we came out the other side "a changed and transformed civilization".  For me, it does not feel that "grand".  But it is there.  That is why I said maybe this was in some respects a "soft reboot" instead of calamitous ruin or victorious win on the battlefield.