05-22-2018, 10:25 PM
(05-22-2018, 07:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Welcome Nomad
I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment. I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.
Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.
As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful. If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.
Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election. If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.
There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.
Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.
I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T. It would then sputter out some years later.
That's a lot of information lol.... I appreciate it. I do hope you're wrong. No matter what my political beliefs, no one can really say our economy is not revived. I will say people got left behind along the way. Some never re-entered the job force. I am not personally savvy with market stats. However, the unemployment rate is even a little too low. Inflation is not very present. If there is another financial crisis, it would take a lot longer than 5-6 years to heal again from that. When you get to the end of a cycle, there is the blurring of is it crisis or high -- you are saying 2023-24, if we crash again, that upswing will be really late. Contrarily, there has not been an enormous re-inventing of our civilization. I must say, if we are to crash again, it can only be with such force we may not continue as a people. When I think that, I have to conclude the "soft reboot" has already happened. Now, we are moving into full-on rebuilding from it. There remain some issues of public nature and infrastructure has never been addressed, etc.. all those things might become apparent over that period.
What do you think? I really am here to learn and understand others as well as to stick to my guns if I just don't see it
