05-26-2018, 01:41 PM
(05-26-2018, 09:39 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice. They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore. Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD. I view that mood as having already changed....I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.
What I sense here is more hope than analysis. What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time. If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed. Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen.
You suggest 911 and 2008 were big enough deals for them to comprise a 4T. This of course is possible, but if its the case then, event wise, the 4T ended years ago. For the 4T to continue past 2010 or so, more stuff has to keep happening. One might think Donald Trump is something, but I do not see all that much difference between Trump and the alternative, Ted Cruz, who it seems to me would be just as bad (or good) as Trump. Trump hasn't done anything that a bog-standard Republican wouldn't do. He has embraced GWBush's neocon ways, his economics and his social policy.
Now if Clinton had won that would indicate a 4T continuation as the only time Democrats have won a third term were in social moment turnings. This has not been the case for Republicans who won third terms in 1988, 1928 and 1908 (all 3Ts) and 1872 (1T). But that did not happen.
There was no change in foreign policy. We began a crusade in the Middle East in 1991 that continues on to this day. If we had a 4T, it didn't affect our crusading.
Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.
Social moments are supposed to be a time of political turmoil and popular unrest. In past 2Ts and 4Ts were have seen lots of riots, assassinations, domestic terrorism, violent protest. None of this is present. To see social violence today one had to consider rampage murders (e.g. mass shootings) as an additional category of unrest like riots. I do this as so can show the expected spike in violence for this 4T, but it is not clear this categorization is valid. If I don't include these events then the past couple decades fail "the 4T test" for this measure too.
Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.
There is not a very strong case that we even had a 4T.
You said: Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.
But didn't the restructuring happen after the G.I.s returned from war? The restructuring of public institutions on a massive scale did not happen until the Axis was laid waste. All of these indicators of the millennial generations suggest they are simply too old and the archetype is finished in terms of spawning. I can see that the millennials who are above 35(?)yo at the top of the bracket for them to begin addressing public systems/infrastructure, etc because they are too old to really enter some future war. The youngest Millennial right now is 18yo but the vast majority have past that marker.
Dude they are only getting older. How old were G.I.s when entering WWII? I may be mistake with the age ranges, but if I'm right, they were in their 20s respectively. That fits. Millennials are simply too old to serve in a future war. It doesn't fit the overall model of a saeculum. If I'm right with calculations, it would be Artists to fight these future wars and we now that doesn't happen. They may fight alongside Heros but not alone.