06-15-2016, 07:46 AM
(06-14-2016, 09:12 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(06-14-2016, 09:03 AM)Mikebert Wrote: > With this another economic piece may fall into place.
> http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11920420/mo...tive-order
> Add this to the push for $15 minimum wage and the new overtime
> rules and you start to approximate some of the things the NWLB did
> last 4T. The push against free trade and open borders also is an
> attempt to return to "economic leveling" elements also in play
> during the last 4T. Finally Bernie's proposed tax increases also
> mirror last 4T. Taken together, perhaps justified by a "crusade"
> against ISIS, might reverse the rising trend in
> inequality.
Not with German ten year bund yields falling to -0.033%.
http://www.dw.com/en/german-bund-yield-d...a-19328400
Actually that's another piece falling into place. It belongs to a different category. The things to which I referred two are mostly political memes. Policy requires two elements. One is the content of the policy which is built out of concepts that are present in the political cultural zeitgeist (memes). The other is the driver that makes political actors want to take any action at all.
I am expecting a recession soon which I see as involving a major drop in the financial markets. I think we agree here. This is the driver. We had such an event in 2008 and it drove policy. If one happens again it will drive more policy. What that policy will look like with depend on the memes circulating in the political zeitgeist of the recent past.
The 2008 zeitgeist reflected the idea that financial markets needed to be stabilized, but otherwise the capitalist system was sound.
Today the zeitgeist contains new elements: 1. suspicion of free market capitalism manifesting as anti-free trade and pro-labor views 2. seeing financial elites as parasites rather than job creators supporting the idea of tax hikes on rich 3. support for direct job creation through public works rather than indirectly by encouraging investment.