05-22-2019, 06:02 PM
(05-22-2019, 02:48 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: My impression is that the Chinese government is determined to have a one sided relationship with the United States.
On the other hand, I understand that Trump wants to sell more stuff to China.
I suspect that Trump will be disappointed-the Chinese will weasel out of attempts to change their behavior.
On the other hand, I doubt that the Chinese will see a return to pre-tariff conditions. Quoting from The Absent Super Power (Peter Zeihan tells this better than I can):
"...the isolationist trickle I detected in American politics has deepened and expanded into a raging river....
"...a populist, isolationist, anti-trade bent has insinuated itself into American politics on both the Left and Right..."
I read a great critique of Trump's trade war as stupid on tactics, totally lacking in strategy, but something that needed to be done. China has been riding the "developing nation" hobby horse far longer than they deserved to ride it. Add their great plans for world leadership, but also their weaknesses. They are already showing their hand on their one-sided view of trade and political relationships. What happens if the world decides that China is just too risky to have as a partner on really important things, and too domineering on everything else, and decamps for ABC (Anywhere But China) for making their things, great and small.
This can get really messy really fast.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.