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Generational Dynamics World View
*** 28-Mar-21 World View -- North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
  • North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
  • Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
  • Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion
  • Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
  • Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive

****
**** North Korea's ballistic missiles stoke the Denuclearization Delusion
****


[Image: g210327b.jpg]
Kim Jong-un and Joe Biden

North Korea launched two ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan on
Thursday, in violation of UN resolutions. The missiles landed outside
Japan's territorial waters and exclusive economic zone and there have
been no reports of harm caused to aircraft or ships. Both Japan and
South Korea have lodged formal protests.

The timing was interesting, because Thursday was the day of President
Joe Biden's long awaited press conference, where it was promised that
he would take questions from reporters. As expected, Biden's handlers
carefully selected the questions in advance, from carefully chosen
reporters, and the order in which they would be asked, so that all
Biden had to do was follow along in a notebook on his podium and read
the answers out loud. The reporters and questions were all fawning,
such as referring to Biden "as a moral, decent man," and the Fox News
reporter was carefully sidelined.

There was one question where Biden seemed totally unprepared, and that
was the question about North Korea's ballistic missile launch, which
had just occurred several hours before the press conference. Biden
looked down at the podium and read a prepared statement supplied by
his handlers. Here's what he said:

<QUOTE>"Let me say that, number one, U.N. Resolution 1718 was
violated by those particular missiles that were tested — number
one. We’re consulting with our allies and partners. And there will
be responses — if they choose to escalate, we will respond
accordingly.

But I’m also prepared for some form of diplomacy, but it has to be
conditioned upon the end result of denuclearization. So that’s
what we’re doing right now: consulting with our
allies."<END QUOTE>


Denuclearization is a delusional fantasy, as I'll describe below.

This is a reasonable statement, but if you watched the press
conference, as I did, Biden didn't appear to understand what he was
reading, and had a difficult time reading it. That portion of the
press conference appears right at the beginning of the al-Jazeera
video referenced below, so you can watch it and judge for yourself.
You can blame me as a wild-eyed ideologue for saying that Biden
appeared to be, at the least, cognitively challenged or worse, but my
perception is not important. What's important is that leaders around
the world were watching carefully and analyzing, and they know that
Biden is mouthing words, but doesn't know what he's saying. To me, it
was painful to watch, and almost cruel for his handlers to stand him
up and put him and the country through that.

Before proceeding with the analysis, I want to make it clear that it
makes no difference what Biden said. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, there is a powerful "March of History" going on
here. As I've been saying for years, North Korea is on a path to
develop nuclear weapons and missiles, and nothing that Clinton, Bush,
Obama, Trump or Biden could say or do will stop it (short of a
pre-emptive missile attack on all of North Korea's facilities, which
Trump threatened, but which was never going to happen). Diplomacy is
a worthless delusion in the March of History.

****
**** Analysis of North Korea's nuclear weapons program
****


I now want to quote excerpts from the best analysis of the North Korea
that I've seen in years (not counting some of my own). It appeared in
the al-Jazeera show Inside Story, and you can watch the whole thing by
following the link in the sources below.

The analysis was done by Tariq Rauf, former head of Verification &
Securiity Policy, at the IAEA, which is the United Nations nuclear
inspection agency.

He began by giving a summary of North Korea's current capabilities (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"North Korea has one of the oldest nuclear programs in
the world. It started in 1953 [right at the end of the Korean
War].

They now have a complete nuclear fuel cycle -- uranium mining,
uranium enrichment, enriching to reactor grade uranieum, also to
weapons grade uranium, which is over 90%. They also have a
plutonium separation capability.

And they've obviously demonstrated that they can make nuclear
warheads. They carried out six nuclear tests, and if one looks at
the yields of the six nuclear tests, each one of them has been
bigger than the previous one. The last test in 2017 was nearly
140 kilotons.

And so North Korea, in its six tests, has demonstrated much more
advanced nuclear weapons capability than India or Pakistan did so
in 1998. Therefore it is a full program."<END QUOTE>


He said that their missile program is equally advanced: "They also
have a full suite of ballistic and cruise missiles. They have short
range or battlefield missiles, they have medium range missiles, and
they also have long range missiles."

He added that their nuclear program is pretty much completed, and the
only question left is the number of weapons they have in their
arsenal. "We believe they have 30, 40 or 50 nuclear weapons, can
apparently make 7 to 12 more per year per year."

****
**** Sanctions and the Denuclearization Delusion
****


For years, America and the United Nations have been using
sanctions to try to convince the North Koreans to denuclearize.
This was true under the Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump administrations,
and it's still true in the Biden administration, since Biden
has not made any statement about removing the sanctions.

During the al-Jazeera show, Tariq Rauf gave a lengthy discussion of
why sanctions have absolutely no chance of succeeding:

<QUOTE>"As for sanctions, nobody can point to a single case
in history where sanctions have reversed their nuclear, chemical
or biological weapons program in a country.

Sanctions did not affect South Africa, Iraq, Iran, didn't stop
India or Pakistan, and it's clear that they didn't stop North
Korea.

The leadership has shown in Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and also North
Korea that if the population has to tighten its belt, that's what
they will do.

And North Korea has also seen how Iraq, Libya and Iran have been
squeezed because they didn't have nuclear weapons.

Nobody threatens North Korea with an attack, nobody says all
options are on the table, so North Korea knows. They also know
that India and Pakistan have been accepted as [i]de facto

nuclear weapons states."<END QUOTE>[/i]

So Rauf makes it clear that North Korea's nuclear program is here to
stay, and sanctions will do nothing.

As I said, there is a March of History, and sanctions will not affect
it. By the time the world war ends, every one of North Korea's
nuclear weapons will be used somewhere -- on America, on Japan, on
South Korea, on China, on Russia, or elsewhere.

****
**** Contrasting negotiating styles: Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
****


Tariq Rauf also gives a comparison between Joe Biden and Donald Trump
in handling the North Korea situation:

<QUOTE>"Biden has already insulted the Russian president, the
Chinese president, has insulted Kim Jong-Un as a Hitler and as a
thug. How does he expect them to have a meaningful dialog?

President Biden who is also known for rash decisions, and for
insulting foreign leaders, needs also to be restrained. We
criticize president Trump quite justifiably, but president Biden
is no angel either. He's not going to wave a magic wand and
things are going to fall into place."<END QUOTE>


This gives rise to a comparison of the two negotiating styles,
always keeping in mind that the March of History will be same,
irrespective of the American president's negotiating style.

As I described many times, I was initially quite contemptuous of
Trump's lack of knowledge of the world, until the unexpected happened:
He selected as his principal advisor Steve Bannon, who is an expert on
both military history and Generational Dynamics, as I worked with him
off and on for several years. Bannon educated Trump on what was
happening in China, South Korea and elsewhere, and Trump used that
knowledge, combined with this own "Art of the Deal" skills, in his
relations with foreign leaders. Thus, he developed a friendly
father-son relationship with Kim Jong-un, and repeatedly complimented
Xi Jinping as a great leader, although that changed dramatically in
March 2020, when the CCP infuriated Trump by announcing that the
coronavirus had been inserted into Wuhan province by the American
army.

At his press conference on Thursday, Joe Biden emphasized that he
had a long relationship with China's president Xi Jinping:

<QUOTE>"I’ve known Xi Jinping for a long time. Allegedly, by
the time I left office as Vice President, I had spent more time
with Xi Jinping than any world leader had, because President Obama
and the Chinese President Hu decided we should get to know one
another since it was inappropriate for the President of the United
States to spend time with the vice president of another
country. But it was obvious he was going to become the new leader
of China.

So, I spent hours upon hours with him alone with an interpreter —
my interpreter and his — going into great detail. He is very, very
straightforward. Doesn’t have a democratic — with a small “D” —
bone in his body. But he’s a smart, smart guy. He’s one of the
guys, like Putin, who thinks that autocracy is the wave of the
future and democracy can’t function in an ever — an ever-complex
world.

So, when I was elected and he called to congratulate me, I think
to the surprise of the China experts who were — his people were on
call as well as mine, listening — we had a two-hour
conversation. For two hours. ....

And earlier this month — and apparently it got the Chinese’s
attention; that’s not why I did it — I met with our allies and how
we’re going to hold China accountable in the region: Australia,
India, Japan, and the United States — the so-called Quad. Because
we have to have democracies working together.

Before too long, I’m going to have — I’m going to invite an
alliance of democracies to come here to discuss the future. And so
we’re going to make it clear that in order to deal with these
things, we are going to hold China accountable to follow the rules
— to follow the rules — whether it relates to the South China Sea
or the North China Sea, or their agreement made on Taiwan, or a
whole range of other things. ....

And the third thing, and the thing that I admire about dealing
with Xi is he understands — he makes no pretense about not
understanding what I’m saying any more than I do him — I pointed
out to him: No leader can be sustained in his position or her
position unless they represent the values of the country. And I
said as — “And, Mr. President, as I’ve told you before, Americans
value the notion of freedom. America values human rights. We don’t
always live up to our expectations, but it’s a values system. We
are founded on that principle. And as long as you and your country
continues to so blatantly violate human rights, we’re going to
continue, in an unrelenting way, to call to the attention of the
world and make it clear — make it clear what’s happening.”

And he understood that. I made it clear that no American President
— at least one did — but no American President ever back down from
speaking out of what’s happening to the Uighurs, what’s happening
in Hong Kong, what’s happening in-country.

That’s who we are. The moment a President walks away from that, as
the last one did, is the moment we begin to lose our legitimacy
around the world. It’s who we are."<END QUOTE>


Biden was making the point that he has a relationship with Xi Jinping,
though apparently a fairly hostile one -- but that's better than
no relationship. However, he has no similar relationship with
Russia's Vladimir Putin, whom he recently called a "killer,"
nor with Kim Jong-un, whom he has called a thug, a dictator
and a tyrant.

We have to mention that the Trump administration spoke out forcefully
about human rights in China, and about the Uighurs. Biden's claim
otherwise may be a lie, or more likely he doesn't know, since his
handlers didn't bother to tell him. However, world leaders who
watched Biden stumble through his press conference are well aware that
he lied. (See "20-Jan-21 World View -- Pompeo bashes China over genocide, virus, Taiwan on last days of Trump administration"
)

So it's not surprising that North Korea's media made a particularly
harsh response to Biden's statement:

<QUOTE>"We cannot but build invincible physical power for
reliably defending the security of our state under the present
situation in which south Korea and the U.S. constantly pose
military threats to the Korean peninsula while persistently
conducting dangerous war exercises and introducing advanced
weapons.

We express our deep apprehension over the U.S. chief executive
faulting the regular testfire, exercise of our state's right to
self-defence, as the violation of UN "resolutions" and openly
revealing his deep-seated hostility toward the DPRK.

Such remarks from the U.S. president are an undisguised
encroachment on our state's right to self-defence and provocation
to it.

It is a gangster-like logic that it is allowable for the U.S. to
ship the strategic nuclear assets into the Korean peninsula and
launch ICBMs any time it wants but not allowable for the DPRK, its
belligerent party, to conduct even a test of a tactical weapon.

We clearly remember that after the appearance of the new
administration in Washington there have been exploitation of every
opportunity to make words and acts provoking the sovereignty and
dignity of our state in which we were branded as the most serious
"security threat".

The bellicose stance of the new U.S. administration awakens us to
the way to be followed by us and convinces us of the justice of
the work to be done by us once again."<END QUOTE>


It's worth remembering that North Korea is a vassal of Communist
China. Kim Jong-un occasionally throws a temper tantrum and does
something the CCP doesn't like, but basically Kim does as he's told.
I consider it likely that the CCP gave Kim the OK for Thursday's
ballistic missile launches.

In my opinion, North Korea will not launch any military attacks
without China's permission, and that means it will be done in
coordination with China's invasion of Taiwan or Japan or an attack on
the United States, at some point in the future.

So that's the state of the relations between America and North Korea
today.

****
**** Myanmar / Burma becomes toxic and explosive
****


I want to add a brief word about a different subject.

The situation in Myanmar (Burma) is becoming toxic to the point of
being close to explosive. Some 50-80 people peaceful protesters were
killed on Saturday alone, with no provocation. These included
children and even babies in their homes. The violence by the army is
becoming horrific and unrestrained. Furthermore, other ethnic groups,
including the Kachin and the Shan, are threatening to intervene unless
the violence stops.

Burma's generational crisis war was an extremely bloody multi-ethnic
civil war following independence (1948-1958). It's been 65 years
since the end of that civil war, and so Burma is due for a new one,
and that appears to be happening.

This is going to trigger large refugee flows into Thailand, India and
China, so those countries may be brought into the war. Russia,
incidentally, is supporting Burma's army, and so probably expects to
gain from a Burma civil war.

Sources:

Related Articles:





KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Sea of Japan,
March of History, Tariq Rauf, IAEA, China, Xi Jinping, Uighurs,
South Africa, Iraq, Iran, India, Pakistan, Libya,
Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Joe Biden,
Quad, Australia, India, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Myanmar, Burma, Thailand

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John J. Xenakis
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