11-12-2018, 09:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2018, 01:16 AM by Eric the Green.)
(11-06-2018, 11:02 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Apparently Trump has more flunkies (a nasty way of looking at it, but the GOP is an authoritarian cadre party; cadre parties have flunkies and not independent actors) in the Senate, but he has lost the House. A bunch of states have ditched Republican governors from the Tea Party era.
Effects on the presidential election: Republicans will have no help from Democratic Governors in some states that Trump won in 2016. Trump will have to win fair and square, and if his approval levels result in poor electoral numbers, he will not win.
Only eleven Democrats will be up for re-election in 2020 in the Senate, and only two will be in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016. Doug Jones, the incumbent Senator from Alabama, won under freakish circumstances unlikely to be repeated. The other incumbent Senator running for re-election in a state that Trump won in 2016 will be Gary Peters in Michigan -- and he won against the 2014 Republican wave, which says more about Michigan. On the other side, Susan Collins (R, Maine) has probably doomed her Senate career in a state that looks hostile to Trump, and Corey Gardner (R, Colorado) is in a state hostile to Trump after having barely won in a wave year. Also, Arizona has an appointed Senator... appointed incumbents tend to have trouble.
There will be relatively few gubernatorial races -- eleven.
The Presidential election will be all up to Donald Trump. Will he moderate? Will he compromise? I doubt it. We know his personality, and basic personalities rarely change at his age except as the result of dementia. I have never seen dementia make any person more pleasant to be around.
The 2020 senate election will not feature a whole lot of Republicans who represent Democratic leaning states. So it will probably take some red states voting for a Democrat to get a decisive majority.
Quote:The Republicans regained the majority of the Senate in the 114th Congress, which started in January 2015; the Republicans had not controlled the Senate since January 2007. They had needed a net gain of at least six seats to obtain a majority. They held all of their seats, and gained nine Democratic-held seats. Republicans defeated five Democratic incumbents: Mark Begich of Alaska lost to Dan Sullivan, Mark Pryor of Arkansas lost to Tom Cotton, Mark Udall of Colorado lost to Cory Gardner, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana lost to Bill Cassidy and Kay Hagan of North Carolina lost to Thom Tillis.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...ions,_2014
The Republicans also picked up another 4 open seats in Iowa, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
In 2014 Republicans in a wave midterm election took back seats from Democrats in a lot of conservative states. Colorado is the only exception, and it is only lean Democratic. North Carolina and Iowa are purple states, so their seats could go Democratic again if the national Democratic tide is strong enough.
Sen. Collins will be in trouble in Maine, although her ouster is not guaranteed by any means. She may also choose not to run again. Long ago, she had promised to retire in 2008. The only other possibility I see is Texas, where Beto O'Rourke almost unseated Ted Cruz in 2018. Beto could run again against Cornyn.
Democrats must stop flirting with candidates who can't win the presidency. Only Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe and Sherrod Brown stand a good chance to beat Donald Trump, no matter how bad his presidency is. If one of those three is at the top of the ticket, the Democrats might pick up 5 senate seats (more if a miracle happens and conservative states vote for a Democrat again like they had before 2014). If Bernie or Biden are nominated, it's a crap shoot, but the odds favor Trump slightly. If any other candidate is nominated, the Democrats will lose, and probably won't pick up more than 1 or 2 senate seats. And Doug Jones will probably lose his seat too.
The likes of Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Eric Garcetti don't have the communication skills needed to beat the reality TV star. It's a matter of articulate intelligence, but also of personality and leadership ability. Candidates who win are likable, poised, confident and dominant with an imposing presence. Wonks and eggheads do not win unless they have the other qualities too.
I imagine if the senate is ever to get anything constructive or progressive done, it will have to eliminate or reduce the filibuster, which is very risky. With our nation so divided between red and blue for the foreseeable future, the constitution does not allow a filibuster-proof Democratic senate majority. And something will likely have to be done to stack the supreme court with liberals, and that will likely take a senate majority that might not exist. It's going to continue to be tough. Drastic changes to our system might be in the offing by 2025 as the crisis drags on. The Classic Xers of America have a lot of tools to keep us in the dark ages. And with such stagnation, I can see the people just giving up and giving in to the new banana republic that Classic Xer wants.