Trump, Bannon and the Coming Crisis

[anandrajan]

(11-27-2016, 04:10 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(11-27-2016, 12:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-18-2016, 08:31 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Sometimes nations in a 4T try all sorts of bad solutions before coming up with the right one ...

I don't see how we can avoid a period of experimentation, since we are totally in the dark about the course we must follow.  Isn't that a huge part of the 4T ethic?  If we knew what to do, there would be no reason for a crisis.

FWIW, I assume the next iteration will involve a full restructuring of the system we have currently locked in place by the Constitution.  Doing that will be hard ... very hard.  It could involve the Constitutional convention that has never happened to date, or some form of social disintegration that leads to who-knows-what.  In any case, it will be dramatic, if it happens.  Stasis is also a possibility, and crisis will simply pass unresolved for now. 

If the solution is the non-solution, then the next 2T will see the last 2T on steroids, and the 4T ... I hate to think.  We're running a post-modern America on an Agricultural Age political model.  At some point, that has to break down.

It is the neglectful government of a 3T, the bad business practices, and the perverse mass culture that form the Degeneracy that implodes as a Crisis. The 3T is the time of hidden rot (especially the intensification of economic inequality and the degradation of public service); the 4T usually strikes when a do-nothing leader is in charge and has no clue of how to meet the Crisis.

The problem isn't our Constitution; it is that cunning, ruthless people have found ways to get around its intent for their own gain and power. We will need a new political structure that counteracts those tendencies.

I wonder if it's possible to guess at the contours of where we are headed post crisis (assuming there's a big one in the next 10 years).

Some biggies:

1. Income inequality is starting to become a problem
2. US manufacturing jobs for the lower middle class have all but vanished
3. The culture at large is becoming incredibly fragmented (civil unrest, shootings, cops killing innocents and getting killed etc.)
4. Economic slowdowns in Europe and in China are likely to affect the US soon.
5. ISIS-style terrorism is becoming more common.
6. There's a significant element of the US population which will not accept climate change as a serious problem.
7. Unfunded entitlements, debt, interest rates at zero, QE, etc.

Let's assume that all these problems come to a head in the next 3-4 years. We can also assume that Trump/Bannon etc. will probably exacerbate these issues to the point where we (the citizens) may feel that the republic is falling apart.

All these problems point to the start of a new era driven by (i) the need to address climate change head on by changing our infrastructure and (ii) ensuring that there's decent GDP growth in the U.S. while providing job security for the middle and lower middle classes, (iii) taking steps toward forming a unified American culture and (iv) firewalling the terrorist world somehow.

What's written above seems insanely difficult to achieve. And yet we'll probably get there (or somewhere equivalent) because we'll reach a point where we have nothing to lose. This view also points to the U.S. moving in a more socially conservative (in the good sense) and economically liberal direction. The question is: is this the likely 1T?