11-11-2019, 10:13 PM
A bit of an introduction about my views on Generational Theory, I am Orthodox Strauss and Howe, the four-stroke model is solid and is validated by evidence. However, I have quite several disagreements with many of their interpretations. For example; I see the American Civil War saeculum as a normal one, with a 4T running from 1850-1868/9 and a Civic Generation some of us who were on the old T4T forum, call the Gilded whose cohorts were from the late 1820s to late 1840s.
Also, I disagree with Neil Howe about the whole Middle East being on one saeculum, rather the Arab World is on one saeculum, while the Turko-Iranian world is another which Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Mongolia are on as well. Indeed, the subject of this post, will be my hypothesis that the world is made of different civilizations or ‘worlds’ each with their own individual saeculum. My main influence in this theory, is the book the Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington. My only disagreement with Huntington is how he defined the Civilizations or "worlds".
Because his definitions do not fit in how people in different parts of the world, consider as their world.
· People in the Indian sub-continent despite religious differences often see themselves as part of an Indian civilization or world.
· Russians, Georgians, Armenians, Mongols, Turkic and Iranian people, have a sense of regarding part of the same world which is called 'Eurasia'. Indeed there is a political ideology called Eurasianism which argues for the unity of these people in a world they call 'Eurasia'.
· Thais, Filipinos, Vietnamese,Malays and Indonesians do see themselves as part of a South-East Asian world.
· Latin Americans and people in the Caribbean islands see themselves as much a part of the West as Europeans and North Americans do.
· As well as people in the Arab lands, even peoples such as Somalis and Non-Arab Muslim West and East Africans consider themselves as part of the ‘Arab World’. Also, I think Non-Muslim populations as well.
· Sub-Saharan Africans see themselves being part of an African civilization or 'world', expect perhaps the Somali's, Mauritanians Sudanese and maybe the Ethiopians who see themselves as part of the 'Arab World'.
· Many orthodox Christians in the Balkans regard themselves as Westerners, this is true especially of the Romanians and Greeks. Indeed, every country in the Balkans bar Turkey, are either in the European Union or want to join it and have high levels of pro-European sentiment.
Therefore; I argue that they are no specific Orthodox Christian, Islamic, Hindu and Buddhist civilizations, rather civilizations more based on geographic and cultural boundaries, which are quite ancient.
There is also what I have observed that movements wither cultural or political, spread across individual worlds, while not moving into neighboring 'worlds' . An example would be the Arab Spring, which spread into places on the other side of the Sahara Desert such as Mauritania, Sudan and Somalia. However, they did not spread into Kurdistan, Iran or Turkey, which in my opinion indicates these ‘worlds’ have their own individual saeculum’s. Other phenomenon include the Protests of 1968 in Europe, fall of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe in 1989, the wave of political activism and overthrow of a government in Indonesia throughout South-East Asia in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis. The Russian Revolution is another, which while there were copycat attempts in other European countries, they were short lived and easily suppressed. While both Iran and Turkey at the same time underwent trans-formative political revolutions. I argue all these phenomenon often spread like wildfire throughout a particular world, however very often don't spread into the neighboring worlds.
The West - Europe (minus Russia), North America, Latin America, The Carribean and Oceania. This region is Currently in a 4T which started between 2005 and 2009. However Ireland, along with probably the Ukraine and Belraus are on a different saeculum, currently in a 2T having started in the mid 2010's The borders of the West in Europe conforms pretty much to where Latin Christianity has long had at least a significance presence.
Indian World - India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, along with maybe Myanmar, Tibet and the Pashtun population of Afghanistan. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.
Chinese World - China, minus regions inhabited by Mongols, Uighurs and probably the Tibetans. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.
Japanese World - Japan and maybe Korea, currently in a late 3T having started in the early 2000s.
"Steppe World" or Eurasia - Turkey, Caucasus states, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, Uyghur inhabited regions of China, Mongolia and Mongol inhabited regions of China, along with probably Non-Pashtun regions of Afghanistan, Ukraine and Belarus. Currently in an early 2T, which started in the middle to late 2010s. These regions were before the Turkic expansion, dominated by speakers of Iranian languages, also Iranian culture and civilization has long been dominant throughout the region.
'South-East Asia’ – Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, East Timor. This region despite the different religions of the peoples, have a Hindu-Buddhist foundation, which Malays, Indonesians and perhaps Filipinos acknowledge. I estimate they are currently in a 3T which started sometime in the 2010s, their last 4T was approximately in the 1950s and 1960s, while their last awakening was in the 1990s and 2000s.
‘Arab World’ – Arab countries of the Middle East, Israel, North Africa, also likely at least Somalia. Conforming nicely with where Afro-Asiatic languages are spoken, also I would not be surprised if Ethiopia is in this world as well. They have just entered their 4T in the last two to four years. With the last 4T being in the 1940s and 1950s, and their last 2T lasting from the late 1970s to late 1990s. That would make the Arab Spring a 3T/4T transitional event, like the European revolutions of 1848 were like.
‘African World’ – Central and Southern Africa, Given what I have researched about South Africa, they are likely currently in a 2T which started in this decade. There is evidence from a old T4T forum poster, that Nigeria could very well be in a 2T having started in the 2010s as well, with the start of Boko Haram insurgency.
Also, I disagree with Neil Howe about the whole Middle East being on one saeculum, rather the Arab World is on one saeculum, while the Turko-Iranian world is another which Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Mongolia are on as well. Indeed, the subject of this post, will be my hypothesis that the world is made of different civilizations or ‘worlds’ each with their own individual saeculum. My main influence in this theory, is the book the Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington. My only disagreement with Huntington is how he defined the Civilizations or "worlds".
Because his definitions do not fit in how people in different parts of the world, consider as their world.
· People in the Indian sub-continent despite religious differences often see themselves as part of an Indian civilization or world.
· Russians, Georgians, Armenians, Mongols, Turkic and Iranian people, have a sense of regarding part of the same world which is called 'Eurasia'. Indeed there is a political ideology called Eurasianism which argues for the unity of these people in a world they call 'Eurasia'.
· Thais, Filipinos, Vietnamese,Malays and Indonesians do see themselves as part of a South-East Asian world.
· Latin Americans and people in the Caribbean islands see themselves as much a part of the West as Europeans and North Americans do.
· As well as people in the Arab lands, even peoples such as Somalis and Non-Arab Muslim West and East Africans consider themselves as part of the ‘Arab World’. Also, I think Non-Muslim populations as well.
· Sub-Saharan Africans see themselves being part of an African civilization or 'world', expect perhaps the Somali's, Mauritanians Sudanese and maybe the Ethiopians who see themselves as part of the 'Arab World'.
· Many orthodox Christians in the Balkans regard themselves as Westerners, this is true especially of the Romanians and Greeks. Indeed, every country in the Balkans bar Turkey, are either in the European Union or want to join it and have high levels of pro-European sentiment.
Therefore; I argue that they are no specific Orthodox Christian, Islamic, Hindu and Buddhist civilizations, rather civilizations more based on geographic and cultural boundaries, which are quite ancient.
There is also what I have observed that movements wither cultural or political, spread across individual worlds, while not moving into neighboring 'worlds' . An example would be the Arab Spring, which spread into places on the other side of the Sahara Desert such as Mauritania, Sudan and Somalia. However, they did not spread into Kurdistan, Iran or Turkey, which in my opinion indicates these ‘worlds’ have their own individual saeculum’s. Other phenomenon include the Protests of 1968 in Europe, fall of the communist bloc in Eastern Europe in 1989, the wave of political activism and overthrow of a government in Indonesia throughout South-East Asia in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis. The Russian Revolution is another, which while there were copycat attempts in other European countries, they were short lived and easily suppressed. While both Iran and Turkey at the same time underwent trans-formative political revolutions. I argue all these phenomenon often spread like wildfire throughout a particular world, however very often don't spread into the neighboring worlds.
The West - Europe (minus Russia), North America, Latin America, The Carribean and Oceania. This region is Currently in a 4T which started between 2005 and 2009. However Ireland, along with probably the Ukraine and Belraus are on a different saeculum, currently in a 2T having started in the mid 2010's The borders of the West in Europe conforms pretty much to where Latin Christianity has long had at least a significance presence.
Indian World - India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, along with maybe Myanmar, Tibet and the Pashtun population of Afghanistan. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.
Chinese World - China, minus regions inhabited by Mongols, Uighurs and probably the Tibetans. Currently in a 4T having started c.2009.
Japanese World - Japan and maybe Korea, currently in a late 3T having started in the early 2000s.
"Steppe World" or Eurasia - Turkey, Caucasus states, Iran, Central Asia, Russia, Uyghur inhabited regions of China, Mongolia and Mongol inhabited regions of China, along with probably Non-Pashtun regions of Afghanistan, Ukraine and Belarus. Currently in an early 2T, which started in the middle to late 2010s. These regions were before the Turkic expansion, dominated by speakers of Iranian languages, also Iranian culture and civilization has long been dominant throughout the region.
'South-East Asia’ – Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia, Philippines, East Timor. This region despite the different religions of the peoples, have a Hindu-Buddhist foundation, which Malays, Indonesians and perhaps Filipinos acknowledge. I estimate they are currently in a 3T which started sometime in the 2010s, their last 4T was approximately in the 1950s and 1960s, while their last awakening was in the 1990s and 2000s.
‘Arab World’ – Arab countries of the Middle East, Israel, North Africa, also likely at least Somalia. Conforming nicely with where Afro-Asiatic languages are spoken, also I would not be surprised if Ethiopia is in this world as well. They have just entered their 4T in the last two to four years. With the last 4T being in the 1940s and 1950s, and their last 2T lasting from the late 1970s to late 1990s. That would make the Arab Spring a 3T/4T transitional event, like the European revolutions of 1848 were like.
‘African World’ – Central and Southern Africa, Given what I have researched about South Africa, they are likely currently in a 2T which started in this decade. There is evidence from a old T4T forum poster, that Nigeria could very well be in a 2T having started in the 2010s as well, with the start of Boko Haram insurgency.