01-10-2020, 09:35 PM
(01-10-2020, 03:47 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets. I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.
It seems pretty simple. I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball. In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes. Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.
1. You do not fire missiles in the range of a major airport if the airspace near that airport is safe. Commercial jetliners are not fair game.
2. I expect Iran to make an example of anyone culpable -- enough lashes to bring someone almost to the point of insensibility followed by a particularly brutal form of hanging (the wretch is raised by a crane and allowed to dangle and slowly strangle).
3. Airspace around large-scale commercial airports such as JFK, Orly, and Narita is very closely watched.
4. The regular Iranian armed services seem ill-trained. Far too much emphasis is put on the Revolutionary Guards necessary for stifling dissent in Iran.
(01-10-2020, 03:56 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(01-10-2020, 09:27 AM)Skabungus Wrote: The minute I heard a civilian jet dropped out of the air in Iran in the midst of the missile attack on American bases I assumed it was a jumpy Iranian SAM battery suspecting what they should naturally expect in such a scenario: American jets coming to bomb Iranian targets. I didn't entertain other possibilities like American jets actually penetrating Iranian airspace to take out Iranian planes, or ISIS or other non-state actors trying to capitalize on the situation.
It seems pretty simple. I've never been in the military, or had any experience in a shooting war, but I've done a lot of crisis scenario simulations and emergency response simulations, and played a good amount of paintball. In all cases jumpy actors are common, even with extensive training to prevent such mistakes. Friendly fire and targeting mistakes remain common problems.
This would not have happened if Trump has not assassinated General Soleilmani. Iran is to blame too for not restricting air travel in such a dangerous time. It's a very sad thing.
Iran shouldn't trust western institutions like the OPCW now either.
https://medium.com/@caityjohnstone/the-h...32903f22a2
So Drump bombed Syria for no reason at all, the chemical weapons finding was all fake. So if Iran gets blamed for anything on this crash, they can copy Drump and yell fake news, becase, afterall, nowadays there is lots of fake news going on.
And a new and updated "Pentagon Papers" for us who are old enough to remember the originals.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/d...nnable-war
And so this another way empires collapse. They get shot through with lobbying [bribery] and fraud [bribe accepters] which is just part of the corruption at high levels.]
---Value Added 