03-10-2020, 04:34 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2020, 04:45 PM by David Horn.)
FWIW, I have a totally different system for judging Presidential elections, based on math alone. No, it's not better or even as good, but it's a useful guide to how things may play. It's a spreadsheet with all the electoral divisions, a score between -1 (D to the max) and +1 (R to the max) for each one and an array of results based on how tilted the election actually is, from -8% to +8%. Right now, the Presidential election seems to center around -1.5, so a 1% win for the Dems will lose the election in the Electoral College. I'm still refining the individual state scoring, so that may change.
A more analytical approach is one by Rachel Bitecofer who argues that elections are now hardwired, because there are no swing voters anymore. She, and her research team, used this model to predict the 2016 election and nailed the House and Senate races in 2018. Her prediction: if the Progressive vote comes to the polls, Trump will lose dramatically and the Senate may flip to the Ds.
A more analytical approach is one by Rachel Bitecofer who argues that elections are now hardwired, because there are no swing voters anymore. She, and her research team, used this model to predict the 2016 election and nailed the House and Senate races in 2018. Her prediction: if the Progressive vote comes to the polls, Trump will lose dramatically and the Senate may flip to the Ds.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.