01-17-2018, 10:54 PM
Trump approval rating in West Virginia (arguably one of the strongest R states in Presidential elections now):
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48
Down from +21 in January 2017.
Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19
http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html
The biggest deviation from the assumption that the 2020 election will be a 50-50 election that I have sen yet.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;9]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;14;7&AK=2;9;5&AZ=2;5;4&AR=2;15;7&CA=1;12;6&CO=1;1;2&CT=1;6;3&DE=1;6;3&DC=1;*;9&FL=2;2;2&GA=2;5;3&HI=1;18;7&ID=2;19;7&IL=1;7;4&IN=2;8;5&IA=2;3;2&KS=2;13;7&KY=2;15;7&LA=2;11;5&MD=1;12;5&MA=1;12;5&MI=1;1;2&MN=1;1;5&MS=2;9;5&MO=2;9;5&MT=2;11;5&NV=1;1;2&NH=4;0;1&NJ=1;7;3&NM=1;3;2&NY=1;12;5&NC=2;3;2&ND=2;17;7&OH=2;3;2&OK=2;20;9&OR=1;5;3&PA=4;0;1&RI=1;10;5&SC=2;8;5&SD=2;14;7&TN=2;14;7&TX=2;8;3&UT=2;20;9&VT=1;15;7&VA=1;1;2&WA=1;7;3&WV=2;19;7&WI=4;0;1&WY=2;25;9&ME=1;3;2&ME1=1;1;4&ME2=2;1;2&NE=2;14;7&NE1=2;1;5&NE2=2;1;2&NE3=2;1;9)
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=3;12;7&AK=0;3;4&AZ=0;11;5&AR=3;12;7&CA=5;2;3&CO=3;5;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;6;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=0;29;4&GA=3;12;7&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=3;2;3&KS=0;6;5&KY=3;8;5&LA=3;11;7&MD=3;3;5&MA=3;4;3&MI=3;10;7&MN=5;4;2&MS=3;6;5&MO=3;7;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=3;16;7&NJ=3;9;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=3;1;2&NC=3;10;7&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=3;11;7&TX=0;38;4&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=3;5;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=3;17;7&WI=3;7;5&WY=0;3;6&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Twenty-three states with recent polls... now nearly half (46%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.
Approve: 51 (+3)
Disapprove: 48
Down from +21 in January 2017.
Tax Bill approval ("will it help average West Virginians?")
Help - 38
Hurt - 27
No effect - 19
http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html
The biggest deviation from the assumption that the 2020 election will be a 50-50 election that I have sen yet.
Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts
int var
2 1-4%
3 5-8%
5 9-12%
7 13-19%
9 20% or more
DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.
ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2
NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27
(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:
Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.
100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?
Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more. For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS) suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.
Twenty-three states with recent polls... now nearly half (46%) of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see.
The 2020 election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.
Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*,
it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%, although Obama did come back from a poll of 43-51 in 2010 in Ohio, only to subsequently win the state. But Obama is one of the slickest campaigners in American history. Trump is not Obama, which is a severe understatement.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.