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The Lichtman Keys
#2
The Keys were published in 1984. He applied them retroactively before that. Let's see how he would have scored 1968.

True means the incumbent party is favored, false the challenging party. 6 false keys and the incumbent party loses.

Key

1 Party Mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. Republicans gained seats in 1966.

2 Contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. RFK, McCarthy and McGovern challenged the eventual nominee Humphrey, and won most of the primary election contests.

3 Incumbency The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE, LBJ bowed out.

4 Third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign. FALSE, Wallace won 5 states.

5 Short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE

6 Long-term economy Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE, the economy was booming under LBJ.

7 Policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE: Medicare, Voting Rights Act and other Great Society programs passed.

8 Social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE

9 Scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10 Foreign/military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE, the Vietnam debacle was the archetypal quagmire for all time.

11 Foreign/military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE, LBJ lost on both counts on foreign policy. His conference with Kosygin was not a major success I don't think.

12 Incumbent charisma The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

13 Challenger charisma The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE

8 false keys; correct. The Democrats lost in spite of a booming economy and major accomplishments in domestic policy.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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