06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
A more difficult election to score might be 1976.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. 1974 was a big year for Democrats in the midterms.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. Reagan challenged Ford and almost won.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Eugene McCarthy ran, but did not do well enough. TRUE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE. The economy was recovering from the 1973-75 recession
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. The economy was in recession during most of the incumbent's term.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE. President Ford only accomplished vetoes.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Watergate forced out the president during the term, which was a taint on the incumbent administration, and his appointed successor pardoned him, an unpopular move.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. Vietnam defeated the USA and its client in 1975.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Middle East agreements.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. This is tough. Carter was considered charismatic before he took office. I would give it a mild TRUE.
I COUNT 7 FALSE KEYS, which is correct; the incumbent Republican Party lost.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. 1974 was a big year for Democrats in the midterms.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. Reagan challenged Ford and almost won.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Eugene McCarthy ran, but did not do well enough. TRUE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE. The economy was recovering from the 1973-75 recession
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. The economy was in recession during most of the incumbent's term.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE. President Ford only accomplished vetoes.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Watergate forced out the president during the term, which was a taint on the incumbent administration, and his appointed successor pardoned him, an unpopular move.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. Vietnam defeated the USA and its client in 1975.
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Middle East agreements.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. This is tough. Carter was considered charismatic before he took office. I would give it a mild TRUE.
I COUNT 7 FALSE KEYS, which is correct; the incumbent Republican Party lost.