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The Lichtman Keys
#3
A more difficult election to score might be 1976.

Key

1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. 1974 was a big year for Democrats in the midterms.

2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. Reagan challenged Ford and almost won.

3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE

4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Eugene McCarthy ran, but did not do well enough. TRUE

5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE. The economy was recovering from the 1973-75 recession

6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. The economy was in recession during most of the incumbent's term.

7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE. President Ford only accomplished vetoes.

8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Watergate forced out the president during the term, which was a taint on the incumbent administration, and his appointed successor pardoned him, an unpopular move.

10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. Vietnam defeated the USA and its client in 1975.

11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Middle East agreements.

12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. This is tough. Carter was considered charismatic before he took office. I would give it a mild TRUE.

I COUNT 7 FALSE KEYS, which is correct; the incumbent Republican Party lost.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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