06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-19-2020, 11:40 PM by Eric the Green.)
Let's try another tough one, 1988. Incumbent nominee Bush defeated Dukakis.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. The Democrats gained seats in 1986.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE, Senator Dole challenged Vice President Bush
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. There was tax reform, but I don't know if that was major enough. But if you count Reagan's first term, then it gets a TRUE. Reaganomics was established for 40 years (and counting).
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Iran-Contra. Many cabinet resignations and many indictments and convictions.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Agreements with the Soviet Union
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
If I give the incumbent party Key 7, then that's only 5 False Keys, favoring the incumbent. That's a close call, but correct. Incumbent nominee Bush won.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. The Democrats gained seats in 1986.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE, Senator Dole challenged Vice President Bush
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. FALSE
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. There was tax reform, but I don't know if that was major enough. But if you count Reagan's first term, then it gets a TRUE. Reaganomics was established for 40 years (and counting).
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. Iran-Contra. Many cabinet resignations and many indictments and convictions.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE
11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. Agreements with the Soviet Union
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE
If I give the incumbent party Key 7, then that's only 5 False Keys, favoring the incumbent. That's a close call, but correct. Incumbent nominee Bush won.