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The Lichtman Keys
#5
How about 1980. President Carter vs. Ronald Reagan

Key

1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE

2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. FALSE. Ted Kennedy

3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE

4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. FALSE John Anderson

5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" Reagan asked. The people answered no.

6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Close, but TRUE I believe.

7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE His energy policy was important, but not popular, and it did not shift our energy usage enough, and congress did not act on it sufficiently)

8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE

9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE Iran crisis

11
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE Camp David Accords

12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE Malaise was not appealing

13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. FALSE Ronald Reagan was a great communicator

8 False Keys. Carter lost.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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