08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-05-2020, 06:42 PM by Eric the Green.)
The Lichtman Keys for 2020 have been revealed. 7 have turned false; 6 needed for the incumbent to lose.....
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE. The economy shrank 33% in the second quarter, the biggest decline ever, and since the pandemic has already raged on for the first month of the 3rd and won't recede anytime soon, and brought on more economic closures, the 3Q looks very bad too.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. This above decline has reversed any hope of this Key holding for Trump.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE. Although I disagree, Lichtman considers the tax reduction and executive orders reversing Obama policy to be major changes. The Obamacare mandate tax was repealed too.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE. Lichtman now sees that the unrest over black lives matter/police brutality and the pandemic are sustained, and includes violence that threatens the social order. I mentioned that Trump stoked it recently by also having his goons pick up or gas peaceful protesters, and thus arouse further protest in turn. Not to mention the biggest protests in history against him earlier in the term. Trump being a politician who depends for his support on stoking racial and ethnic fears, and who has promised to crush the protests with the military, the protests are directly related to Trump's own style of leadership.
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. he was impeached, and constant scandal continues
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. close calls but no failures. The Ukraine scandal belongs to Key 9.
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. nothing major
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE. he is a great entertainer but only appeals to his loyal base of followers
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE. Biden is decent and empathetic but not inspiring
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE.
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE. The economy shrank 33% in the second quarter, the biggest decline ever, and since the pandemic has already raged on for the first month of the 3rd and won't recede anytime soon, and brought on more economic closures, the 3Q looks very bad too.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. This above decline has reversed any hope of this Key holding for Trump.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE. Although I disagree, Lichtman considers the tax reduction and executive orders reversing Obama policy to be major changes. The Obamacare mandate tax was repealed too.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE. Lichtman now sees that the unrest over black lives matter/police brutality and the pandemic are sustained, and includes violence that threatens the social order. I mentioned that Trump stoked it recently by also having his goons pick up or gas peaceful protesters, and thus arouse further protest in turn. Not to mention the biggest protests in history against him earlier in the term. Trump being a politician who depends for his support on stoking racial and ethnic fears, and who has promised to crush the protests with the military, the protests are directly related to Trump's own style of leadership.
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. FALSE. he was impeached, and constant scandal continues
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE. close calls but no failures. The Ukraine scandal belongs to Key 9.
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE. nothing major
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE. he is a great entertainer but only appeals to his loyal base of followers
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE. Biden is decent and empathetic but not inspiring