08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-10-2020, 04:09 PM by Eric the Green.)
Lichtman Keys for 1972 election.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. The Republicans in 1970 won 7 fewer seats than in 1966
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE, the economy was doing well in 1972.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. I think the Democratic terms under JFK and LBJ were stronger than under Nixon because of the 1970 recession.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE. The environmental protection agency, for one, and other such laws.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE. Let's turn this one false and see what happens, since unrest was still strong in 1969-1970 and included weatherman bombings and the Kent State massacre and subsequent uprising, plus the largest demonstration ever in world history (Earth Day).
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE, Watergate did not erupt until March 1973.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE, Vietnam was still a mess.
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE, initiated detente with the Soviets and opening to China.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE. Nixon was often seen as tacky, although he appealed to the "silent majority."
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE. McGovern was not inspiring enough, though he had a loyal following among coastal youth. Nixon's horoscope score was much higher.
Nixon won by a landslide, although he had 4 or 5 false keys, not enough to turn him out. Congress stayed strongly Democratic.
Key
1
Party Mandate
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. The Republicans in 1970 won 7 fewer seats than in 1966
2
Contest
There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE.
3
Incumbency
The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE.
4
Third party
There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE.
5
Short-term economy
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE, the economy was doing well in 1972.
6
Long-term economy
Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE. I think the Democratic terms under JFK and LBJ were stronger than under Nixon because of the 1970 recession.
7
Policy change
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE. The environmental protection agency, for one, and other such laws.
8
Social unrest
There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE. Let's turn this one false and see what happens, since unrest was still strong in 1969-1970 and included weatherman bombings and the Kent State massacre and subsequent uprising, plus the largest demonstration ever in world history (Earth Day).
9
Scandal
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE, Watergate did not erupt until March 1973.
10
Foreign/military failure
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE, Vietnam was still a mess.
Foreign/military success
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. TRUE, initiated detente with the Soviets and opening to China.
12
Incumbent charisma
The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE. Nixon was often seen as tacky, although he appealed to the "silent majority."
13
Challenger charisma
The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE. McGovern was not inspiring enough, though he had a loyal following among coastal youth. Nixon's horoscope score was much higher.
Nixon won by a landslide, although he had 4 or 5 false keys, not enough to turn him out. Congress stayed strongly Democratic.