09-09-2020, 11:48 AM
(This post was last modified: 09-09-2020, 02:05 PM by TeacherinExile.
Edit Reason: Spelling
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I couldn’t resist posting this new thread based on related articles published today. They have some relevance to Fourth Turning theory, in general, and to intergenerational conflict, in particular:
Millennials to redistribute wealth from older generations to the young in new ‘age of disorder,' warns Deutsche strategist - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-wo...1599589831
The Age of Disorder - the new era for economics, politics and our way of life - Deutsche Bank
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb...0000511857
Here is an excerpt (opening paragraphs) from the MarketWatch article:
It probably won’t take a great deal of persuasion to convince investors that there’s an “age of disorder.”
That’s the title of a new Deutsche Bank research note, which says the world is entering its sixth distinct era of modern times.
So say goodbye to the “era of globalization” and brace yourself for the “age of disorder” where millennials, firmly established as the generation of ‘have nots’,take their revenge and redistribute wealth from the old to young. Millennials are usually defined as those between the ages of 22 and 38 years old in 2019, according to Nielsen Media Research.
What I find interesting here is the counter-narrative to the argument posed by Strauss and Howe in their book. They maintained that any fiscal crisis that arises in the fourth turning would be addressed by a willing sacrifice on the part of Boomers for the sake of younger generations. The Deutsche Bank analysis argues quite the opposite, that Millennials will vote for redistributive reductions in Boomer wealth (and entitlements?) in order to make up for the intergenerational inequities. In other words, rather than the heroic financial sacrifice on the part of older generations for the benefit of the young, as predicted by S&H, Boomers will be sacrificed—unwillingly—at the ballot box. Revanchism, not altruism, as a way to balance the scales.
Should America fall off some kind of fiscal cliff, that’s actually how I see things playing out, the way that Deutsche Bank has predicted. You can already see glimmers of that in the stark contrast between the old and the young with respect to COVID-19. The attitudes and behaviors, taken as a whole, could not be more different. I fully expect that much steeper tax rates will be enacted on both income and wealth. And local policies that tend to deny Millennials and Gen-Z opportunities to have affordable housing, such as restrictive zoning laws (NIMBY), will also go by the wayside.
I find it interesting, too, that the Deutsche Bank report refers to the time period lasting from 1980 to 2020 as a bygone epoch. This epoch, of course, is the neoliberal era that becomes a “dead letter” now, in my opinion. What comes next is anybody’s guess...
Millennials to redistribute wealth from older generations to the young in new ‘age of disorder,' warns Deutsche strategist - MarketWatch
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-wo...1599589831
The Age of Disorder - the new era for economics, politics and our way of life - Deutsche Bank
https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb...0000511857
Here is an excerpt (opening paragraphs) from the MarketWatch article:
It probably won’t take a great deal of persuasion to convince investors that there’s an “age of disorder.”
That’s the title of a new Deutsche Bank research note, which says the world is entering its sixth distinct era of modern times.
So say goodbye to the “era of globalization” and brace yourself for the “age of disorder” where millennials, firmly established as the generation of ‘have nots’,take their revenge and redistribute wealth from the old to young. Millennials are usually defined as those between the ages of 22 and 38 years old in 2019, according to Nielsen Media Research.
What I find interesting here is the counter-narrative to the argument posed by Strauss and Howe in their book. They maintained that any fiscal crisis that arises in the fourth turning would be addressed by a willing sacrifice on the part of Boomers for the sake of younger generations. The Deutsche Bank analysis argues quite the opposite, that Millennials will vote for redistributive reductions in Boomer wealth (and entitlements?) in order to make up for the intergenerational inequities. In other words, rather than the heroic financial sacrifice on the part of older generations for the benefit of the young, as predicted by S&H, Boomers will be sacrificed—unwillingly—at the ballot box. Revanchism, not altruism, as a way to balance the scales.
Should America fall off some kind of fiscal cliff, that’s actually how I see things playing out, the way that Deutsche Bank has predicted. You can already see glimmers of that in the stark contrast between the old and the young with respect to COVID-19. The attitudes and behaviors, taken as a whole, could not be more different. I fully expect that much steeper tax rates will be enacted on both income and wealth. And local policies that tend to deny Millennials and Gen-Z opportunities to have affordable housing, such as restrictive zoning laws (NIMBY), will also go by the wayside.
I find it interesting, too, that the Deutsche Bank report refers to the time period lasting from 1980 to 2020 as a bygone epoch. This epoch, of course, is the neoliberal era that becomes a “dead letter” now, in my opinion. What comes next is anybody’s guess...