01-27-2017, 09:05 AM
(01-26-2017, 10:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(01-25-2017, 01:22 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:(01-25-2017, 01:05 PM)David Horn Wrote:(01-25-2017, 03:29 AM)Galen Wrote:(01-25-2017, 01:32 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: Climate models - as opposed to empirical research on historical climate behavior - continue to show hockey sticks starting at whatever the current year is, and continue to be shown to be wrong the next year.
Which is a sure sign that they don't know anything because the models are demonstrably wrong if this keeps happening. This suggests that the real agenda is to scare people into giving the government power and money. This is a very old story.
Which climate models are you referencing? None that I've seen in the last 30 years.
Green oriented people need to face the fact that the models are just that. Modeling such a chaotic system where we are still learning the actual boundary conditions and relevant tensors is no easy task. It is going to be a work in process for some time to come. Then someone who has an agenda as opposed to a desire for pure science (shout out to Michael Mann and his "Real Climate" crew) comes along and plugs in bristlecone pine hygrometer-maybe treemometer cores, or other questionable proxies, and exaggerated depictions may occur. This is not to say warming is not occurring and is not to say the warming is not due to AGW. It is to say, exaggeration does no one any good. I can understand certain adherent's desire to get the attention of the masses and increase the urgency of mitigation actions, but the way the Hockey Team did it is wrong.
I doubt that those promoting doubt on this issue have any basis in fact. The "Hockey Stick" just refers to the fact that on a graph, the AGW shows up at the current time as a very sharp uptick compared to the slow changes in the past. It is based on fact. There is no exaggeration coming from research scientists. And it's not just one guy we can pin supposed exaggeration on; this is a community of climate scientists who all agree on these facts.
The "hockey stick" has never shown up in actual temperature measurements. Back in 2000 when the Gore campaign was pushing it, the climate models showed a "hockey stick" starting in 2000. Then for the next ten years actual temperatures, far from accelerating as the "hockey stick" predicted, decelerated and were flat for over a decade. All along, the models were predicting a "hockey stick" starting in the year they were published in. They still do, showing an acceleration at the "current time", as you say. No "hockey stick" has ever shown up in the actual data, making all "hockey stick" predictions - which is most of the predictions - highly suspect.
Most of the theoreticians pushing climate models aren't scientists in the sense of people looking for the truth. They're "scientists" in the sense of people trying to garner attention and funding by publishing apocalyptic predictions.