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Gag order on the EPA
#26
(01-27-2017, 09:05 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: The "hockey stick" has never shown up in actual temperature measurements.  Back in 2000 when the Gore campaign was pushing it, the climate models showed a "hockey stick" starting in 2000.  Then for the next ten years actual temperatures, far from accelerating as the "hockey stick" predicted, decelerated and were flat for over a decade.  All along, the models were predicting a "hockey stick" starting in the year they were published in.  They still do, showing an acceleration at the "current time", as you say.  No "hockey stick" has ever shown up in the actual data, making all "hockey stick" predictions - which is most of the predictions - highly suspect.

At the moment, the effects of greenhouse gases are still relatively weak but growing, but every addition to the quantity in the atmosphere raises its heat trapping ability.  Since we've already moved beyond the point where the amount of heat received from the sun is greater than the amount reradiated into space, the mean temperature of the earth will continue to grow -- even if we managed to stop the accumulation of GHG at the current level.  AS we add more, the heat transfer ratio will continue to decline.  That's been established for a long time by the satellites of several nations.

On the other hand, the range of the effects of the ~11 year solar cycle is still a bit stronger but oscillating in a consistent manner -- as consistent as massive chaotic systems can be.  That's the point of the hockey stick.  Soon, even the downward trending effects of the solar cycle will be inadequate to compensate for the rate of heat accumulation from GHG, and the annual rise will be continuous. It will still oscillate.  And, of course, there are many additional effects that are also cyclic, including our transit of the galaxy.  AGW doesn't operate in a vacuum.

Warren Dew Wrote:Most of the theoreticians pushing climate models aren't scientists in the sense of people looking for the truth.  They're "scientists" in the sense of people trying to garner attention and funding by publishing apocalyptic predictions.

And this opinion of yours in based on what exactly?   At the moment, there are a few thousand actively engaged in some aspect of this issue, but more actively engaged in nothing more rewarding that fact-checking their colleagues.  It should be noted that many of the sceptics have changed their minds and now believe the effect is both real and threatening.  And then there's this:

[Image: Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg]
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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Messages In This Thread
Gag order on the EPA - by pbrower2a - 01-24-2017, 07:08 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Warren Dew - 01-24-2017, 10:42 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Galen - 01-24-2017, 03:59 PM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Warren Dew - 01-24-2017, 09:46 PM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by pbrower2a - 01-24-2017, 11:12 PM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Galen - 01-25-2017, 03:26 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by gabrielle - 01-24-2017, 11:23 PM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Odin - 01-25-2017, 08:11 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Eric the Green - 01-25-2017, 01:48 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Eric the Green - 01-25-2017, 01:46 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Eric the Green - 01-31-2017, 01:42 PM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Ragnarök_62 - 02-01-2017, 10:42 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Eric the Green - 02-01-2017, 04:53 AM
RE: Gag order on the EPA - by Odin - 02-01-2017, 07:52 AM

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