A Malaise Speech for the Current Time

[David Horn]

(03-30-2017, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(03-30-2017, 10:15 AM)David Horn Wrote: So you're arguing that it's all a ploy, and Trump, et al, are really playing a deep strategy.  That's nonsense.  If you read Trump's book, you'll see that he is intellectually and emotionally incapable of doing that.  By his own words, his modus operand was: go to the office, sit down and wait for something to happen.  He made a point of being unprepared in advance, and totally reactive to events.  Bannon may be a strategist, but he's not the guy in charge.  Unless he becomes a true puppet master, with his hand firmly up his boss's butt 24/7, any strategies he spins will be overturned by Jarret Kushner of Ivanka, both of whom have Trump's ear much more than Bannon.

   Seriously.  Here, lets have Scott Adams explain as he always does what's really happening.

I like Dilbert as much as the next guy, but really?

Kinser Wrote:We see three different levels where Trump wins, one where Ryan loses, and of course the clueless are just as confused as ever.

Level 1:  Trump weakens Ryan who is a snake, and is hated by the Trumpist base.  Remember the GOP is also embroiled in its own civil war between nationalist and globalist factions--the globalists are losing so I expect by the end of the decade the Dims to swing more to the right (and they may also purge their SJW elements).  Meanwhile the GOP will move further left, but be overtly nationalist and populist.

Where we are is just where we, and the Europeans, should expect to be.  A long-followed governing model that's become sclerotic and ineffective will always trigger an antithetical response.  So what?  I see no chance that the neo-nationalists have anything approaching a workable model, and that's becoming clear to others as well.  When the sound asleep finally awaken, this movement will be toast.

That still leaves a need for a workable model, of course.  Bernie Sanders was pretty close to an answer, so look in that quadrant.  The only issue is: how soon?

Kinser Wrote:Level 2:  The Dims still own Obamacare, and as it collapses under its own weight delaying actually helps the president--so it can be repealed (and maybe replaced--with something that actually works).  As for the replacement I'm in favor of the "buy your own goddamn insurance" model.  If we can trust adults to buy mortgages, and car insurance they can be trusted to buy health insurance.  If need be we can even have it cross state lines.

If the plan is to have an insurance-based system of healthcare finance, then the ACA is the least bad option.  Going to "buy your own goddamn insurance" guarantees that the poor, sick and elderly will be priced out of the market and the healthy young will simply opt out.  If employers opt out too, and I think they are looking for an excuse to do just that, then the actual healthcare system will collapse due to lack of funding.

BTW, that's the true definition of a death spiral.

Kinser Wrote:Level 3:  The Leftist meme "Trump is literally Hitler zomg" is permanently broken.  Now the meme is "He's incompetent" as Scott Adams points out the meme will be different by summer. 

I could care less about the meme.  I call what I see, and I see a 70-year old adolescent playing at being President.  I doubt he'll make it through his entire term.

Kinser Wrote:And at the price of what?  A terrible bill no one wanted.  Sounds like the President got a bargain.

Who was arguing for the AHCA POS?  Not me!

Kinser Wrote:Also which book?  He's written around a dozen books.

I only found two, and The Art of the Deal is the biggie.  That's the one that cites his management style -- in his own words.

Kinser Wrote:WRT Ivanka and Mr. Ivanka, I imagine that one's daughter and Son-in-law are relatively important figures in his life.  Such is natural.  How much influence over policy remains to be seen--I know that Bannon heavily influences the President--he's been hired twice to do exactly that.  Remember, the hardest part of running a business is not hiring people--it is firing them.  Trump made "You're Fired" a catch phrase.  Obviously for someone to not only not get fired by Trump, but to be hired a second time indicates that he values Bannon's opinion.

Also don't be surprised at how much leeway White House staff is likely to get.  Trump's business model consists largely of delegating tasks to competent people.  He's built an empire on that particular skill.

Trump is operating on bravado, which may work in his chosen field but not in the public domain.  He isn't a king, and acting like one won't change that one iota.