01-28-2021, 05:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2021, 05:22 AM by Eric the Green.)
(01-28-2021, 02:26 AM)jleagans Wrote: "Which is wrong" . Little wild to argue that 9/11 is unfathomable as a national attitude shift lol. The authors didn't pick attitude shifts (so you say), they picked people.
I would like theory to fit the life expectancies, but in reality I think anything is possible between 16-20 years. History has its rough edges. For example, 1930-1945 is set in stone.
Somehow Strauss/Howe argue that Boomers DON"T start in 1946? Don't buy it.
There was no attitude shift after 9-11. It was a war; wars happen in all turnings, and they don't usually shift the turnings. The author Neil Howe picked the 2008 recession, and from his remarks I have heard originally picked the date 2008, while Strauss picked 2005. And I picked 2008 too.
The Civil War started soon after a 4T started, according to the authors, but the turning started with the secession crisis and Lincoln's election. And many of us question that date as the start of a 4T, and their deletion of a civic generation. According to Shelby Foote, the civil war soldiers had civic traits. They were morally guided, not wild individualists.
History has its rough edges, but they happen a bit farther apart than you say, in my estimation. It's more like 18-24 years, but the great depression/WWII was only 17 years. The average length of both generations and turnings is 20-21 years.
What is set in stone, so to speak, is the length of the modern saeculum of about 84 years. If some turnings get speeded up because of events (such as the JFK assassination or the early end of WWII), then following turning(s) get longer to make up the difference (like the 3T from 1984 to 2008).
Strauss and Howe argue that Boomers started in 1943. Did you read the book or look at their website and its charts? Generations always start a few years before turnings. The first turning dates from 1946, but not Boomers. According to the authors (and I agree), the date 1946 given for the first Boomers is for demographic purposes, not generation characteristics; although the name Boomers is demographic. The same applies for the choice by Pew Research for 1996 as the start of Gen Z.