11-11-2016, 03:09 PM
I don't think Trump can be a grey champion because I don't think there are any. Trumps election more or less puts the final nail in the coffin from the generation theory. The theory holds that the Awakening creates raises issue or creates belief systems that influence the prophet generation coming of age, who then later put these ideals into practice later in life during a 4T when they are known as grey champions. S&H call the 2T the New Consciousness, which certainly seems a reference to the late sixties and early 1970's. Both candidates were age 22 in 1968-69, right in the middle of this. So this fits age-wise. But DST theory and empirical data shows that the core issue resolved in 4T is problems stemming from elite proliferation caused by high economic inequality.
How can Trump deal with this? Many ways have been used in the past.
[1A] in early 1066 England had a Saxon king and a Saxon elite. According to Domesday, by 1086 England had a Norman king and a Norman elite and population was rising after centuries of stagnation.
[1B] Fifty years earlier the Danes had conquered England too, but they left the Saxon elites in place. Guess which invasion was the 4T?
[2A] After Henry VI went insane the country fell apart and a 30 year civil war began, on which the popular series Game of Thrones is based. At the end of the conflict the entire ruling House had been wiped out leaving one man in power, who proceeded to craft a legislative agenda to prevent future challenges to the state. Population growth resumed and prosperity ensued.
[2B] Half a century earlier civil war had also wracked the nation, but had been put down by the able and charismatic son of the aging king, who later went on to win renown in external conquests only to suffer an untimely death leaving an infant son on the throne. Which civil war was the 4T?
[3A] A civil war led to the execution of Charles I and the abolition of the monarchy and establishment of a republic, than soon devolved into a military dictatorship. Upon the dictator's death he was succeeded by his son, but he was unable to gain the support of the elite and the monarch was restored.
[3B]A generation later a foreign invader with substantial domestic support displaced the monarch replacing it with a new one that shared power with Parliament. A flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites. After decades of stagnation, population growth resumed as the economy improved. Which event was the 4T?
[4A]An isolated portion of the English state became increasingly frustrated with limits on territorial expansion, monetary policy, and regulation of commerce, and rebelled. The won and expelled pro-English elites. After a brief chaotic period they implemented a flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites.
[4B]A generation later two rival factions of the successful revolutionaries settled differences in governance in a peaceful fashion preserving the status of all involved. Which event was the 4T?
In each of these there is one choice where the problem of elite numbers was not addressed, either through reduction in numbers or through expansion of opportunities and one where the status quo was maintained. The former are the 4Ts. The answers above are 1A, 2A (Wars if the Roses), 3B (Glorious Revolution), 4A (American Revolution.
As we moved into the industrial age, the problem of elite proliferation was addresses by confiscating the property of elites so as to reduce their status, making their lower strata blend into the middle classes or gentry. For example the Civil War 4T stripped Southern elites of three fifths of their wealth by emancipation, converting an American aristocracy into a mere gentry.
The Depression and WW II 4T used high taxes on top elites, legalization of labor actions and wartime "command economy" policies to reduce elite incomes substantially, converting their lower tier members into mere upper middle class.
Something along these lines must happen during this turning for it to be a 4T. If it doesn't happen, then it is not a 4T. Can anyone make a case for how elite reduction along the lines of what I described above could happen in today's world (I don't think Trump is going to emulate William the Conqueror).
How can Trump deal with this? Many ways have been used in the past.
[1A] in early 1066 England had a Saxon king and a Saxon elite. According to Domesday, by 1086 England had a Norman king and a Norman elite and population was rising after centuries of stagnation.
[1B] Fifty years earlier the Danes had conquered England too, but they left the Saxon elites in place. Guess which invasion was the 4T?
[2A] After Henry VI went insane the country fell apart and a 30 year civil war began, on which the popular series Game of Thrones is based. At the end of the conflict the entire ruling House had been wiped out leaving one man in power, who proceeded to craft a legislative agenda to prevent future challenges to the state. Population growth resumed and prosperity ensued.
[2B] Half a century earlier civil war had also wracked the nation, but had been put down by the able and charismatic son of the aging king, who later went on to win renown in external conquests only to suffer an untimely death leaving an infant son on the throne. Which civil war was the 4T?
[3A] A civil war led to the execution of Charles I and the abolition of the monarchy and establishment of a republic, than soon devolved into a military dictatorship. Upon the dictator's death he was succeeded by his son, but he was unable to gain the support of the elite and the monarch was restored.
[3B]A generation later a foreign invader with substantial domestic support displaced the monarch replacing it with a new one that shared power with Parliament. A flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites. After decades of stagnation, population growth resumed as the economy improved. Which event was the 4T?
[4A]An isolated portion of the English state became increasingly frustrated with limits on territorial expansion, monetary policy, and regulation of commerce, and rebelled. The won and expelled pro-English elites. After a brief chaotic period they implemented a flurry of reforms created an environment conducive to economic growth, which provided many new opportunities for elites.
[4B]A generation later two rival factions of the successful revolutionaries settled differences in governance in a peaceful fashion preserving the status of all involved. Which event was the 4T?
In each of these there is one choice where the problem of elite numbers was not addressed, either through reduction in numbers or through expansion of opportunities and one where the status quo was maintained. The former are the 4Ts. The answers above are 1A, 2A (Wars if the Roses), 3B (Glorious Revolution), 4A (American Revolution.
As we moved into the industrial age, the problem of elite proliferation was addresses by confiscating the property of elites so as to reduce their status, making their lower strata blend into the middle classes or gentry. For example the Civil War 4T stripped Southern elites of three fifths of their wealth by emancipation, converting an American aristocracy into a mere gentry.
The Depression and WW II 4T used high taxes on top elites, legalization of labor actions and wartime "command economy" policies to reduce elite incomes substantially, converting their lower tier members into mere upper middle class.
Something along these lines must happen during this turning for it to be a 4T. If it doesn't happen, then it is not a 4T. Can anyone make a case for how elite reduction along the lines of what I described above could happen in today's world (I don't think Trump is going to emulate William the Conqueror).