11-17-2016, 08:49 PM
(11-13-2016, 04:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(11-12-2016, 09:56 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I may need to provide a fuller response later. That said, and with the caveat that I haven't gone through his actual equations yet, I don't necessarily buy Turchin style evaluations of the elites.
That kind of formulation just begs the question of why too many elites cause a problem. In my opinion, the answer is almost certainly that the problem is caused when the concentration of wealth and power gets to the point where oligopolies undermine market efficiency.
Too many elites don't cause the underlying problem. That is economic inequality. The proximate cause is too many elites. Too many elites lead to elite conflict, e.g. the high degree of polarity and the inability to compromise and that makes solving the underlying problem difficult.
To clarify, when I say "cause" here, I include "proximately cause". In fact, I'm skeptical of being able to determine the number of elites at all, since the dividing line between elites and nonelites is pretty fuzzy in modern societies. I do think the balance between elites and nonelites, or rather wealth inequality in some measure, is the primary relevant factor.
I suspect a simpler model than Turchin's would be better. But, I haven't gone through all of the equations yet.