12-13-2016, 08:44 AM
(12-12-2016, 03:35 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: [quote pid='15145' dateline='1481573366']
How about this as a thought experiment:
Let us suppose that Bannon who will be Trump's chief advisor (that is a White House staff position and he could hire a whore from 2nd Avenue if he wanted for White House positions) does subscribe to S&H theory. Let us also suppose that he feels that a crisis climax not only is coming but inevitable (like S&H theory does) and thus he can stear the direction of that climax.
Now assuming that we only have two choices: Some sort of trade war with China and maybe the EU (but unlikely to be them mostly China) OR a thermonuclear war with Russia. Which do you think he'd pick. Remember we are talking about a man with a great deal of influence over the President.
I'm going to put my shekels down on a trade war. I have this strange inkling that Trump and Bannon both prefer to not be vaporized along with the rest of humanity.
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This assumes that the outcomes of a trade war are clearly predictable and manageable. There's no certainty with respect to where the escalation of a trade war or embargo or sanctions might lead to, esp in a 4T where escalation & the sense of urgency is ramped up exponentially.
My biggest concern is that other countries have been playing the long game (think star trek style 3D chess) while this administration has appeared to be fairly short-term thinkers.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti