How the CCH and S&H fits in is CCH is one of the two mechanisms by which one secular cycle transitions into another. To see this, look at the Anglo-American secular cycle turning points: Viking Invasion 865-878, Norman Invasion 1066-1071, Wars of the Roses 1455-1485, English+Glorious Revolutions (1642-1689), American Revolution & America's founding (1775-1789), Civil War and Reconstruction (1860-1877). Everyone of these was achieved through war: civil war, external invasion or a combination of both. There is just one turning point that was achieved without a war. That is the one Turchin identifies as around 1930. The CCH posits a mechanism for achieving a secular cycle turnaround without a war. It is based on what happened over 1907-1941. A new episode of capitalist crisis began in 2006.
The ends of the secular cycle transitions are all 4Ts. In agrarian times, secular cycles spanned 2-4 saecula (average 3). The driver for these cycles was population growth, which ran around 1.5% in the absence of restrictions. In modern times the driver is economic inequality which reflects the different between the returns to capital and the returns to labor (wage growth), which run about 4.5%. Thus, modern secular cycles should run about 3 times faster than agrarian cycles, or about 1 saeculum. Thus the modern secular cycle corresponds to the saeculum. S&H gives another way to track secular cycles, and vice versa. That means if CCH is the mechanism that turns around economic inequality and so starts a new cycle, it is also the mechanism that forms to core of the 4T process.
Some here talk about the possibility of civil war. This is still one option. The other is CCH. There may be more, but I don't know about them. Anyways the cause of the capitalist crisis is high inequality. If big business and the rich do not accept confiscatory tax rates, the economy will keep trying to collapse every business cycle until it succeeds. The first time in 2000-2002 the Fed handled easily by blowing up a counter bubble in real estate. The second time in 2007-2009 the Fed had a much harder time since there was no large undamaged asset class to blow up, but they prevented collapse. Will they succeed a third time?
If not then Business is going to have to ally with Clinton against the Republicans in Congress. If they don't the economy collapses, many of them go bankrupt. True Clinton and the Democratic party will have been defeated, and Republicans will now rule over the smoking ruins. But is smoking ruins what Business wants just to keep taxes low? If Business won't support Capitalism, who will?
The ends of the secular cycle transitions are all 4Ts. In agrarian times, secular cycles spanned 2-4 saecula (average 3). The driver for these cycles was population growth, which ran around 1.5% in the absence of restrictions. In modern times the driver is economic inequality which reflects the different between the returns to capital and the returns to labor (wage growth), which run about 4.5%. Thus, modern secular cycles should run about 3 times faster than agrarian cycles, or about 1 saeculum. Thus the modern secular cycle corresponds to the saeculum. S&H gives another way to track secular cycles, and vice versa. That means if CCH is the mechanism that turns around economic inequality and so starts a new cycle, it is also the mechanism that forms to core of the 4T process.
Some here talk about the possibility of civil war. This is still one option. The other is CCH. There may be more, but I don't know about them. Anyways the cause of the capitalist crisis is high inequality. If big business and the rich do not accept confiscatory tax rates, the economy will keep trying to collapse every business cycle until it succeeds. The first time in 2000-2002 the Fed handled easily by blowing up a counter bubble in real estate. The second time in 2007-2009 the Fed had a much harder time since there was no large undamaged asset class to blow up, but they prevented collapse. Will they succeed a third time?
If not then Business is going to have to ally with Clinton against the Republicans in Congress. If they don't the economy collapses, many of them go bankrupt. True Clinton and the Democratic party will have been defeated, and Republicans will now rule over the smoking ruins. But is smoking ruins what Business wants just to keep taxes low? If Business won't support Capitalism, who will?