04-13-2019, 07:10 PM
(04-13-2019, 04:48 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:(04-13-2019, 01:23 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:Do you know which candidate that you're going to be voting for/ supporting in 2020 like me? Does the candidate matter more to the Democratic voters these days? I know it shouldn't but does it these days? You don't mock people with mental illness's. You just blindly accuse people of having a mental illness like most blues tend to do these days. Hey, do you think any blues who lack the real life experience of getting/having had their asses kicked or finding themselves in a scary situation having it happen to them understand the consequences of doing stupid stuff like that in real life. I'm sorry dude but the odds are now in his favor to win re-election and he knows it and he will have a couple of years to watch, listen, study and size up your pool of candidates.(04-12-2019, 08:34 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:(03-29-2019, 12:53 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it, with apology to the Bard:I think you should ignore that fact and continue what you've been doing for the last decade. In other words, you should continue lying and promoting/advancing a false sense of hope to liberal voters.
50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less
The usual margin of error is 4%, and twice that is not close.
I have yet to see any state poll asking such a question as "Do you want to re-elect Donald Trump or do you want someone else?" or "Do you plan to vote for Trump or for the Democratic nominee?" in which this question comes back positively -- yet. This is different from approval, probably suggesting that one likes the results even if one despises the President. Opposing Trump may not mean that one has fallen in love with liberalism; it may mean that one would rather have some different expression of conservatism as President.
Yeah, sure. This map shows people saying that they would rather vote for someone else than for Trump. The question might not be asked quite the same, and it shows only 145 electoral votes. If Trump loses only the states that I show with pink or with red shades, then he wins re-election by a margin of 393-195.
Well, that map is already obsolete, as I found a similar question asked of California, Maine, Massachusetts, and Virginia.
To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:
50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less
So if he wins everything in gray, he still wins 309-227. Yeah, sure --- he is going to win several of Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Connecticut, Vermont, Rhode Island, Delaware, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia. If you really believe that, then I could post a video that shows how absurd you are -- except that I do not mock people with mental illness. I do not make handicap, LGBT, or ethnic jokes, either.
I have seen the polling -- and Trump is more likely to lose such states as Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio than win any of the states that I mentioned above.
To win re-election from being at this level, Donald Trump must undo much of the ill will that he has created among voters on the margin, voters who voted for Obama but rejected Hillary Clinton.
Since McAuliffe, Landrieu or even Sherrod Brown have not announced, the Democrats will likely have to depend on a couple of old geezers, and maybe only one (Bernie Sanders), to take out Trump in these key states. None of the other candidates has a ghost of a chance against the Orange Menace. They simply do not give the impression of being strong, articulate, steady and charismatic leaders.
It's the blues who have had to deal with more difficult and scary life experiences. Poverty and discrimination is no fun. The reds are cushy folks who benefit from untrammeled capitalism, or else rural folks who are just too provincial and parochial to avoid being brainwashed.
Being a leftist, Sanders has a challenge even to defeat the worst president in the history of this conservative country, but who is a skilled demagogue and insult-mongerer who will not cease hitting Sanders over the head with socialism. Trump can't win a debate on points-- he lost 3 of them to Hillary-- but he can score through intimidation and the power of his personality, honed through years of celebrity and reality TV.
Since Trump has only 44% approval at best, and is down in polling in the 3 states that gave him the election, there's a chance he might lose. I would agree the odds are still slightly in Trump's favor. But if Sanders can hold VA and the western purple states that Hillary won, and can keep his likely lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, then Pennsylvania will be the key to the election. It could be another cliff hanger, and much will depend on what the Republicans can get away with in rigging the vote.
What Sanders has going for him is an ability to inspire with his sincerity and energy, and his honest conviction that he can bring real benefits to the people through his "revolution" against the oligarchs. He really does come across as a leader, if he can sustain it as he gets toward 80 years old.